Thanks Malay Mail

Apparently this blog has been featured in the Malay Mail: Cyberspot. Thanks!

Bruneians and their toys

As I said never say never again, I cannot resist in making some comments regarding the more stringent enforcement of down-payment for car purchases. Firstly, I say it’s about time! This should have been enforced many years ago. Secondly, before many of you hurl all sorts of negative remarks toward the ministry and its directive, I urge you to think twice. Believe you me, this policy is not about making the rich gets richer or the poor gets poorer (i.e. the argument that poor-people-now-can –no-longer-afford-to-buy-cars or make it ‘expensive cars’), in fact it is the opposite.

The previous lax in the enforcement has made many Bruneians spent what they could not afford. This is what we called ‘wealth illusion’. We think we are ‘wealthier’ because we can afford to buy new and big cars, without even batting an eyelash. When in actual fact, we have actually trapped ourselves into ‘debt-slavery’. Don’t many of you feel that the more you earn, the less you actually take home? I’m not going to talk about how the US started (and now many parts of the world) its recession, but in one line, it is really due to this slavery.

Anyway, it should also bring good news to consumers. I am predicting (well hoping actually) that this policy will have an impact on the price of cars in Brunei. [To economics students, don’t read the next paragraph, think about it for a moment :)]

The policy will reduce the demand for cars. If the car-dealers are behaving ‘normally’, they will have to knock down the prices of cars (hurray for me! as we need to buy one) at the expense of their profit margin and perhaps the commission of our friendly car-salespersons. Either that or the interest rates will be knocked down.

So, there. That’s what I think and ought to happen. I’d be quite surprised if it doesn’t. I don’t think the demand will be unchanged since there are already too many cars waiting (at home) to be driven by too few people in Brunei.

Next, credit cards please!

Salaam.

DONE

After having a 50-minute viva, I'm done! Yeayyy! Well I still have some corrections to do but Ya, I'm in Cloud 9..
Thank You to my darling husband and my beautiful daughters for their support and understanding in the last 4 years. Mama's coming home soon...!
Thank You to everyone who's been reading my ramblings for the past 2 years or so. Well, now that I'm about to go home and work (back to reality), there is a BIG possibility that I won't have the time to write as frequent as I want. Plus, I probably cannot write as freely as I want (in terms of topic)..so never say never, but there'll be less of me.

It really has been a pleasure...

Salaam

Melayu Mudah Lupa

Our Malaysian friends held a farewell dinner for us last night. After the delicious beriyani and rendang, as usual we talked and discussed about the current issues. Last night’s discussion was interesting as it revolved around the ‘malay dilemma’ topic. At the moment, as you and I know, the racial tension in Malaysia is quite pronounced.

There were two camps last night. One opinion was that it is the malays’ right to be given the privileges given the fact that it is the malay land and therefore, the non-malays should not have any right to demand what is not rightfully theirs. And the success of the non-malays is seen as the result of some ‘conspiracy’ against the malays which include the policies that seem to be in favour of the non-malays or rather disfavour the malays.

Another opinion however believes that it is actually the malays themselves who are not utilising the privileges and opportunities that are given to them to their great advantage. The fact is ‘Melayu Mudah Lupa’ (Malay Forget Easily – the title of Mahathir’s book). We forget why we are given those privileges. Believing that they are our rights, we don’t value them anymore. As a result, we don’t work as hard as the non-malays (who have to survive) and the non-malays have emerged to be more successful, cleverer and wealthier.

And for this reason, we believe that there should exist a healthy competitive environment for the malays to prove that they are as good as or in fact better than the non-malays.

In Brunei, Alhamdulillah, we still live harmoniously together. Partly I believe is due to our small population and partly due to our ideology of ‘Melayu Islam Beraja’ (Malay, Islamic, Monarchy). As a result, the competition between the malay and the non-malay in Brunei is less severe or almost non-existent. This however does not mean that the Brunei malay is immune from the symptom of forgetfulness. In fact, we even take many things for granted. Take the ‘Ali Baba’ syndrome in the business sector for example. We want to be rich easily and quickly. Instead of genuinely running a business, we sell or rent out our permits and licenses to foreigners. As a result, the number of Brunei malays who have become true entrepreneurs that we can be proud is less than the ten fingers in our hands as compared to the number of business establishments (especially ‘kedai runcit’, barbershops and tailor shops).

Another example relates to the work attitude of the Brunei malays. The five-tea-break-a-day routine becomes the culture in the government sector. The attitude of ‘karang tah’ has lost the government millions of dollars in terms of productivity and even revenue-generation. As a result, the government sector, which is the first employment choice of any Brunei malay, is slow, inefficient and backward so much so that it can take weeks to send a letter within one tiny district, and months for the results of a few applications. (Come on! What is our population again?)

I totally concur with Dr. Mahathir who said “it is not race or ethnicity but the culture which determines the performance (of the people)”. So, to succeed we must change our culture. It is difficult, of course. To hope that we Bruneians will realize and change ourselves is probably a big wishful thinking.

Therefore, we have to create an environment that can change our perception of our rights of being Brunei malays, our perception of running a business and our perception of work – ‘work to live’ versus ‘live to work’ for our family and our country. We must look towards work as the true reward and take pride in our work, for without pride there may not be progress. This kind of environment may involve monetary reward but the reward should not outweigh the satisfaction of the achievement being made.

We have been blessed with oil and gas. We forget that this will not last forever. While the current generation probably cannot change, the next generation needs to change. We have to ensure that the next generation understands their purpose in life (which sadly is not understood by the current one). It is not an easy task but it has to be done.

Salaam.

Snail Mail

Can somebody from the Postal Department explain exactly the process of receiving/sending mails/parcels in Brunei, please?

Until today I still do not understand how it can take almost 3 weeks for a letter from the UK to be delivered to someone in Brunei. This happened many times to us. For example, about 3 weeks ago, we sent a letter to Brunei. It was an important document but not too important for us to fork 45GBP to send it through DHL. So, we sent using an express UK mail service. With a given tracking code, we could track the letter through the internet. It was express alright, the letter reached Brunei in 2 days time. Unfortunately, the tracking system only applied in the UK so its whereabouts in Brunei, God knew! Thinking that it should arrive in safe hands within a few days, we were happy.

We were wrong. 2 days ago, the intended recipient asked where the letter was. We were gobsmacked! Finally, today we were told the letter has now finally arrived. It took exactly 18 days: 1 day in UK, 1 day travel, 16 days in Brunei.

Really, the term ‘snail mail’ literally applies to Brunei mail. What happened?

I don’t know about anyone else but a good, reliable postal service is crucial in providing a healthy and conducive business environment. Millions of e-bay UK sellers, for example, depend on the reliability of the UK postal service to deliver the goods in timely manner. Sending anything ‘First Class’ will usually mean next-day delivery wherever you are in the UK (the first time I experienced this, it knocked my socks off! haha). And you can claim for compensation if item is lost or damaged by the Post Office. So if the e-bay VP who is now in Brunei knows about the postal service in Brunei, I’m sure he will devote half his talk about the importance of a reliable delivery system.

Anyway, this is one service that can and should be corporatized (Read: the salary of all employees will depend on their ability to send letters/parcels quickly) so hopefully it can become efficient. I hear it’s in the pipeline. So, a big GOOD LUCK wish from me!

Salaam.

Not Likely to Change

Apparently our local youths still think that it is their given birth right to work in the government sector (here for full news). Oh perhaps, their life is still full of roses that having no job is better than having a low-paying job in the private sector.

To solve this dilemma, here’s a thought. Considering the government sector is already saturated (or so as I was told) i.e. it can no longer employ the whole 6000 job-seekers (and it shouldn’t be!), there should be some mechanism in place that should stop the idea that everyone can get a government job. And at the same time, make people value their private sector job or at least stick to their private sector job until their contract ends (with good behaviour). So I say, increase the level of qualification requirement and make ‘private sector employment’ a pre-requisite to the ‘popular’ public sector job.

Now, with regard to the ‘elaun sara hidup’, I think it’s either we scrap it off OR give to ALL Bruneians, fair and square (after all everyone is doing their bits to develop the country, regardless of the sector, no?)

Salaam.

Brain Food

In between shopping for a new house and packing to go home (sorting 4-year worth of stuff into ‘bin it’, ‘donate it’, ‘sell it’ and ‘bring it’ can be a pretty daunting task), I also try to catch up with my readings.

One of the books I just finished reading was ‘Predictably Irrational’ by Dan Ariely. It is insightful and entertaining (I laughed out loud reading this book, which is a rarity for an economics/business book) and that is why I’d recommend it to anyone. Written in simple english, it explains how we think we behave rationally, when in fact we are actually irrational and predictable. For example, we would be more willing to go (hunting) to different shops just to save $5 of a $15-good but would be less willing to save the same amount of money ($5) of a $500-good. So, if you have to buy 1 book this year, make IT this book. It can change how you think and hopefully can make us become 'rational' in our decision-making. It’s also good for any would-be entrepreneur and any businessperson as it contains a lot of marketing strategies.

A more serious book is ‘Rogue Economics’ by Loretta Napoleoni. This book is about the dark side of economic force. It actually makes me shiver that economics can actually cause misery to the lives of millions of people (in case you’re wondering, it is beyond ‘trade and globalisation’ stuff). Interestingly, her conclusion was that Syari’ah Economics could play a very positive role in saving the world from rogue economics.

Salaam.

Battle of the Sexes

While watching President-elect Obama and his staff having a meeting in the news today, it dawned to me that out of the 20 or so people sitting around the table, there were only about 3 females. Why? Are we less productive? Less capable? Less educated than men?

In Brunei, for example, this year alone about 80 per cent of UBD graduates were females but I bet this percentage does not reflect the number of female high-ranking officers (directors and above) in the government sector or even in the private sector. OK forget Brunei, according to Fortune magazine, in 2007 women made up only 2 percent of Fortune 500 CEOs.

I found this interesting article from Slate that explains why we still live in a male-dominated world. Apparently, there are three reasons: 1) women are more risk-averse. 2) conscious discrimination still exists and 3) unconscious discrimination (despite women working harder). And according to this article, mothers earn 75 percent as much as men while childless women earn 95 percent as much as men of the same age and the same job.

Oh dear, apparently we women still can’t have it all.

Salaam.

Click here for the list of 50 Most Powerful Women in the world.

The World in History

It's official. The most powerful man on earth is now Barack Obama.
This proves that nothing is impossible in this world, as long as you work (hard) for it.

Click here for his victory speech.

(Oh please God, Brunei needs someone like this to make changes!)

Salaam

TAP

I was reading the news about TAP today and I couldn’t help doing a quick calculation on my own TAP. And I am worried. Because I don’t think I will have enough money to support myself, let alone to support my family, when I retire until I die.

With the current TAP contributions of 10 % (5%-employee & 5% employer), by the time I retire I will probably earn about $200K. Now, let’s say I live for another 20 years then my monthly retirement will be about $800. I have not taken factors such as inflation which will make the $800 have a lesser value, and Brunei-without-oil which will probably mean I need to spend more for my basic necessities such as medical care.

Oh dear. What should I do? Contribute more seems to be the suggestion.

But hang on, what about those who are earning less than me? What about those who have many children to support? Who, even now, are difficult to make ends meet. How can they possibly ‘voluntarily pay more’ in their contributions?

Anyway, I googled Singapore’s Central Provident Fund (click CPF for a quick summary) which is their TAP equivalence (but more superior). What I find very interesting is their principal behind their scheme:

Over the years, the success of the CPF scheme has depended on values such as self-reliance, good work ethos and family support. Besides encouraging self-reliance, the various schemes underscore the members’ responsibilities as parents, children and breadwinners. The values that the CPF both promote and rely upon include: Standing on one’s own two feet. Every CPF member is encouraged to work, even beyond his retirement age. The CPF savings will guarantee him a comfortable retirement. Even those with modest savings will have enough for basic needs. This self-reliance—funding one’s own retirement instead of relying on the future generation—is a vital element of the scheme.

I don’t know about you but the word ‘guarantee’ stands up. With their total of 30% contribution (10% employee, 20% employer) surely can make that happen. And reading further, there is a required minimum sum to be met, which at the moment is around $100K.

Now, I don’t mean to criticize and belittle anyone’s effort but we seriously need to review our TAP scheme. For a starter, I don’t see any harm in increasing the employer’s contribution. As for those who are working in SMEs, whose employers can’t make the increasing contribution, shouldn't they deserve a miniscule slice of oil income?


Salaam.

Life

Life has been busy in the past one month (hence, the absence of post). First of all, I am very pleased to announce that I did it! I’ve finished and submitted my thesis in under 4 years (Alhamdulillah) and now I’m waiting for my viva. I don’t mean to brag but a few of my colleagues asked me how I managed to do it considering I also have a family to look after i.e. being a full time mom and a housewife.

Well, I must admit it was not easy and without the help from my husband, I don’t think I could manage (Thank You, Abang!). But most importantly I guess, is to keep on doing your work, every day. If you ask me, I don’t have any pattern. I would do my work anytime of the day, whenever and as long as I could (this ranged from only 15 minutes to 2 hours per day). If I had to follow a pattern, say only night time or early in the morning, I don’t think I could finish. What is also important I think is that once you start doing your work, you need to focus. When your concentration is gone, then stop doing your work or try to do something that requires very little or no thinking. There has to be some quality with the work you’re doing. There’s no point in sitting in front of a computer for 5 hours if nothing comes out of your head. You only end up bidding for handbags in ebay (which unfortunately happened to me a few times :p) and become upset when you don’t win them.

Oh and don’t forget to pray, du’a to Allah S.W.T to give you the understanding, the memory and to be always full of ideas and thoughts that can assist you in your study.

Anyhoo, I would like to say to those moms or would-be-moms out there who are now studying or who are thinking of going back to school, you can do it! Insya Allah, God will help you.

Salaam.

"Glory be to You, we have no knowledge except what you have taught us. Verily,
it is You, the All-Knower, the All-Wise" (Baqarah 2:32)

Eid Mubarak 1429/2008

Eid Mubarak!

May the Blessings of Allah

Fill Your Life With Happiness

And Open All the Door of Success

Now and Always.

Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri, Maaf Zahir dan Batin.

Terkasar Bahasa, Tersinggung Perasaan, diPohonkan Kema'afan.

Salaam.

RBA And.....

...One angry employee ( BB Opinion 24 Sept 2008):

What's happening with our national carrier?

Where is our national carrier Royal Brunei Airlines heading?
A few months back, I remember they were boasting about the arrival of their new airplanes, the Boeing 777. But the new airplane is nowhere to be seen.

All that is left are the old Boeing 767s with seats, which in my opinion, is worse than a budget airline.

I do not see any major improvement as yet. First, the gone B777 deal and this year, the hope of getting merit increments and bonus for staff look bleak with nothing so far.

Unfortunately for those who resigned, the employer's TAP contribution is also affected from the employee's end of service benefits.

In its commercial side, I see failures especially in the decision-making. I have been in the sales and marketing industry and I personally think their commercial department needs a major overhaul putting those specialising in that field rather than putting a pilot or engineer instead. I guess, they just have the wrong people for the wrong critical positions.

Salaam.

Liveable City

When I was reading this article, I can’t help thinking about Brunei’s Vision to be among the world’s top 10 countries in terms of GDP per capita and quality of life. So, I wonder whether Brunei (or any part of it) will one day ever make into the top 10 liveable cities in the world. According to Monocle, the ingredients to be a liveable city are:

“a mix of shops and services within walking distance, a good transport interchange within close proximity, green space as part of their residence, a good park with a body of water for a refreshing plunge nearby, independent businesses as a key feature of the community, a sense of security (police on the beat or a Japanese-style police box in their neighbourhood), excellent coffee (Melbourne's Fitzroy and St Kilda and Sydney's Potts Point frequently came up as neighbourhoods that had the ideal mix of restaurants, cafés and street life) and finally a little bit of grit and surprise.”

Judging from the latest result which saw many of the European cities topping the list, it looks like we still have a looonnnggg way to go.

Salaam.

Are We THAT Thick?

After reading the Brunei Times’ piece on ‘Mobile Phones as a symbol of social standing’, the first thought that came to my mind was just how thick we Bruneians can be. In this holy month, I know I shouldn't be having any negative thought but I’m seriously frustrated! But I honestly lost my head when I read a 36-year old civil servant admitted that “his eyes are closed when he pays for a new phone”. O Dear! What is wrong with us?!

[Let me Breathe…]

I don’t know how these people can afford to constantly buy the latest phones. But I suspect credit, be it credit card or bank loan, is the main mode of payment.

Well, I came across an article in Slate that talked about the role of credits in our everyday lives. It was interesting the way it likened credit to a leverage i.e. power that allows you lift a heavy stuff. In this case, credits make everything appear so cheap. Or another way of seeing it, without credit, things look expensive.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not totally against credit cards or even personal loans. There are times, especially when we are travelling, credit cards will come in very handy. Or for when budget is tight and your freezer suddenly dies on you, then the personal loan that is being offered in the shops, can help save your life. But to use credits just to prove that you have a high salary or to have the latest mobile phone or camera that even can rival James Bond’s is beyond me! It’s even worse if you are buying a new phone at the expense of your child’s school fee.

In these last few days of Ramadhan, I can imagine the ‘eyes-turn-blind’ shopping frenzies are at their peaks in Brunei.

This can lead to a disaster, not only to the poor (or shall I call ‘thick’) person’s life but also to the health of the economy. In fact, I believe this is also another culprit that contributes to the increasing number of claims of being ‘poor’ in Brunei.

So I say, please…… whoever or whichever authority is looking into the credit policy in Brunei, to look into this seriously. It is high time we put a credit rating system in place. What I mean is that you can’t just allow any Tom, Dick and Harry that has a blue payslip enters into a credit contract without a thorough check on his financial background.

Everyday in the news, we hear about ‘credit crunch’ happening globally that has even put those giant corporations down on their knees and even collapse. It all started from careless and inappropriate lending. Anyway, it probably is still a foreign term in Brunei, so let’s keep it that way.

Selamat Menyambut Hari Raya Aidil Fitri. Spend Wisely!

Salaam.

ALMOST THERE

This is just a quick post. I’ve been busy in the past weeks to finish my work. Alhamdulillah, the first draft is now ready. So I just have to wait and see what the supervisor says. If it goes well then this heavy burden (of 3 and a half years) will finally be lifted off my shoulders (I mean this literally and metaphorically!). In the mean time, Ramadhan Mubarak!

Salaam

Road to Diversification

This is the kind of news that I love to read in the morning. Hopefully this too.

Salaam.

Wawasan Brunei 2035 and National Development Plan 2007-2012

I have not read Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035) nor the new National Development Plan (Rancangan Kemajuan Negara - RKN), which for some reason was not called the ninth. Hence, I cannot really make a lot of comments on the contents of these 2 national books. For everyone’s benefits, there are 3 main objectives to achieve Brunei Vision 2035 and these are:

1) Brunei to be recognized as a highly educated and skilled people;
2) To have a quality of life among 10 top nations in the world; and
3) To be among the top 10 GDP per capita income nations in the world.

I have found some interesting reads regarding Wawasan 2035 including a presentation made by Dr Richard Leete at the Brunei Forum in Singapore and an article featured in the economist.

The most interesting paper I came across however was a paper by Brunei’s National Development Party which can be found here. The 17 page paper, written in malay, highlights a few weaknesses of the new RKN and gives some proposals for improvements. Among the key points are (pardon my poor translation):

1) The new RKN lacks a comprehensive planning structure: For instance it does not show the specific sectors to be developed and their projected contribution to the economic growth. It also does not address the demand and supply aspects of economic development which will give a more realistic picture;

2) The use of GDP per-capita as the measurement of quality of life will not give a true picture. The GDP per-capita is not a measure of income equality. A greater income equality will ensure a higher quality of life. The Plan however does not address the issue of income equality;

3) The lack of detailed data to support some of the strategy such as the reduction of foreign labour dependence;

4) The lack of strategies to achieve some of the human resource development objectives;

5) The Plan does not explain the method of the calculation of the multiplier effect, which will be used as the basis of project selection.

From my point of view, those points are valid, economically sound and definitely not some mere criticism. What they have raised in that paper are very important and should be taken seriously by the relevant policy-makers in ensuring the successful implementation of the current and any future RKN.

Salaam.

Working Boss

In a few months time, I’ll be going home to Brunei. Believe it or not, I am actually looking forward to resume work with the HOPE that I can make full use of what I have learnt to help the development of Brunei’s economy. But of course this excitement would probably not last for a long time (I will give myself 2 weeks!) especially if I end up not doing things that I think I should do and/or if I don’t work with the right team and/or if the work place is boring and/or if the bosses are…

I remember my conversation with a family friend many months ago. He was a head honcho of a government department in Brunei and our conversation drifted to whether or not I was looking forward to go back to work. And he asked me ‘what’ could excite me to resume work in the office. Well, my answer was ‘the bosses who are working’. (It was also interesting when he told me that as a boss he was also looking for 'working officers', who according to him were scarce).

You see, nothing motivates me more than a ‘working boss’, who unfortunately is hardly to come by in Brunei. And nothing turns me off than a boss who ‘I ask you, you ask me’, who unfortunately exists in a large number. What I mean by a ‘working boss’ is a boss or a HoD or a director who does his/her own thinking, who conveys his/her thoughts clearly to the officers, who knows what he/she wants and who shows that he/she is more capable to do virtually all tasks than any of the subordinates. Don’t get me wrong, I am not looking for a boss who knows everything but a boss that I can look up to, or in the words of our family friend, a mentor.

I am honoured that in the few years I’ve worked I had the opportunity of working with two working bosses, one of whom was the late Professor UBD’s Vice Chancellor (may Allah bless his soul). These two bosses had somehow trained me to love thinking, to believe in what I could do and to be passionate with what I do with the sole objective of developing the country. They were my mentors and I always think to myself, if one day I can be half as good as they were, I’d die a happy woman!

Anyway, I can’t say much of my future bosses as I have yet to work under their leaderships. What I can say for now is I can’t wait to see them and I look forward to our first substantive (intelligent) conversation.

Salaam.

The Curses

I'd hate to think that we are cursed. Double cursed. First, there was the Curse of the Resource (in our case, oil). Now, I wonder if we also suffer from the Curse of the Third Generation as explained by Hsu Dar Ren:

"Looking around us, we can observe that many super rich families often discover that their estate cannot survive the third generation.

The first generation often starts out poor, but through sheer hard work and thriftiness and a little bit of luck become wealthy. From being wealthy, many of them then join the class of the super rich as a result of good entrepreneurial skills and judgment. Many of them, however, remain thrifty even when they become very rich.

The second generation very often grows up during the time their parents were struggling to make their fortune. They are better educated and often will be taught by their parents to "fish" intelligently. So when the family fortune passes to their hands, many of them can still maintain the business and some even expand on it. They are, of course, less thrifty than their parents, and will often marry someone from a rich family.

However, the third generation is usually born with silver spoons in their mouths. They are generally brought up in a life of luxury. They are usually not taught how to fish but are pampered with all sorts of expensive "fish" and hobbies. Many of them are sent overseas for education, but it is not uncommon to find some of them just fooling around and living an extravagant lifestyle. They are given everything and because of that, they do not really know how to cope with difficult situations and the intricacies of the business world.

Adding to that, the family wealth inevitably gets diluted among the more numerous siblings in the 2nd and 3rd generations, especially when these generations are unable to do much to expand the family businesses.

So, the wealth that was passed down just withers away. This is commonly known as the Curse of the Third Generation".

Fate, Cursed or whatever you want to call it, as a Muslim I believe:

“…Surely Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change their own condition…” (Qur’an 13:11).

Salaam.

Land Dilemma

I found an interesting article by Brunei’s National Development Party on the issue of land ownership (click here) which reminds me of a discussion I had with a colleague from the Land Department.

I am no expert in the whole land issue/policy but I do not think the objective of ensuring the local ownership of land has been successfully met, in fact I think it actually has backfired. True, it is a sensitive issue. And for that precise reason, it needs a special attention. The Land Code 1909 really is too outdated, and I do think it deserves some amendments that can accommodate the needs of a new century and most of all the needs of the current economy and its future development without compromising the ‘rightful’ ownership. However for now, I reserve further comments.

Salaam.

Are We Poor OR Are We Stupid?

It is sad to see and hear about the events happening in Brunei (i.e. the food clamouring and the coupon stampede) that have even result into human tragedy (courtesy to ranoadidas.com for always bringing the important news). It would be normal if it happened in a third world country, but for it to happen in Brunei, an oil-rich country, is quite extraordinary.

The question, as rightly put by Mr. Brunei Resources, is “What Happened to Bruneians?”

Now, there are 2 schools of thoughts. One says that it is simply because we are poorer and the other says we are too materialistic that we don’t even know how to differentiate between what is right and what is wrong i.e we are stupid.

Unfortunately, we can never truly find out until a proper income gap analysis is carried out. It is imperative that we know how many Bruneians are poor, how poor and why they are poor. Without such analysis, then we can never know and we will only end up having the rich blaming the poor (of being immoral and shameless) and the poor blaming the system (of unfairness).

While I do not doubt the existence of those who are genuinely poor, I also believe that the pool of poor people in Brunei is also largely made-up of those self-made poor, who are spending beyond their means. Regardless of how people become poor, we need to address poverty properly. There are 2 critical issues to tackle. One, how do we lift Bruneians off their existing poverty and two, how to keep the zero poverty (if it is ever achieved).

Now, if I were an economic advisor to Brunei, these are what I would suggest:

1. Get our statistics and figure right. We NEED to know our poverty statistics A.S.A.P.
2. If the finding (whether this is made public or otherwise) is that there are indeed a large number of poor people in Brunei, then we really need to review our economy. If people are poor because there is no job, then we need to pump-up the economy. This is THE time to make use of the oil-money.
3. Lifting people off poverty does not simply mean giving them money. We need to be creative in giving them the means to make money. True, this is easier said than done given the unfortunate attitude of some (most?) of Bruneians who more than many times do not see the rationale behind the self-aid help. But with proper monitoring and perhaps some taught management skill, I’m sure there will be some positive results. The key is for the relevant agency to NOT to give-up. Don’t let one bad apple ruins the whole basket.
4. It is time to differentiate the different types of goods available in the market. There are the luxurious and there are the normal ones. The problem in Brunei is that there are too many ‘high standard’ people who will not make do with just the normal goods and then there are also too many of us who always want to keep up with the Joneses. For many of these people, the euphoria of owning the latest mobile set or a branded watch has blinded their rational judgement and has reduced their mathematical ability to calculate their monthly balance to pre-kindy level. Therefore I believe the good old system of tax can somewhat alleviate this problem of euphoria-blindness. We need to tax (highly) the luxurious goods.
5. A credit monitoring system needs to be put in place. I cannot just go to any store and sign any credit agreement without a thorough check of my credit rating.
6. It is time to review the TAP contribution. There is a need to increase the contribution from the employees. We need to make sure Bruneians save for their own future. And of course, since Brunei coffer by now must have filled with a lot of oil money, I would also say that the government needs also to increase its contribution into TAP not only into the account of those in the public sector but also to Bruneians in the private sector. Afterall, the money is saved for the future. This contribution from the government I believe could be the key to reduce the remuneration gap between the public-private sectors. It would help increase the attractiveness of the private sector and would (hopefully) alleviate the problem of lazy Bruneians who would rather be unemployed than do manual job.
7. We need also to look at our system of income re-distribution. How do we re-distribute the income from the rich to the poor. While income tax may not be accepted in the near future, property tax certainly deserves some high level discussion now.
8. I don’t know how good our police force or those in the NCB are in combating drug wars, but I pray with all my heart for them to be really good.
9. Finally, I think too much subsidy make people too lazy.

Salaam.

National Development Plans: Summary1

I am going to share with you the finding of a little exercise I did at the beginning of my research. After reading all of Brunei’s National Development Plans, cover to cover, I made a matrix (which I must say is not an easy exercise!) of each RKN/NDP’s objectives, strategies, finance allocations and the targeted economic projects/industries to be developed.

Today, I am going to show you the list of targeted industries/projects beginning from the third National Development Plan (as the first two mere talked about physical infrastructure). The aim of this is to sort of reflect, remind ourselves and see how far we have gone to achieve any of the targeted projects. If we have, how successful was it? If we haven’t then the question we should ask is why? (Unfortunately I do not have the data to measure the achievements).

NOTE: ALL of these can be found in the published National Development Plans!

(Apology for the untidy presentation and BEST VIEWED using FireFox!)

3rd NDP (1975-79)
1. Rice production
2. Agriculture: sweet corn, yellow beans and high protein cattle grass.
3. Livestock: meat and eggs.
4. Castor oil plant
5. Tree crops: pineapple plantations and palm oil estates
6. Fisheries: marine fish
7. Forestry: establishment of a Kraft Pulp Paper Mill and a timber complex.
8. Other mineral resources: development of gravel in Temburong, silica sand in Tutong and coastal terrace clay and ceramic clay in Jerudong.
9. Tourism: Construction of hotels.
10. Oil and gas: Ammonia and Urea plants
Agro based industry: sago processing plant

4th NDP (1980-84)
1) Rice production
2) Livestock production: goat farm, cattle breeding.
3) Uplands crop: maize, soya beans, cowpeas for animal feeds
4) Fisheries: fresh water fish
5) Forestry: timber production
6) Other minerals: Silica land in Tutong (with reserves of 20 million tons), sand mining and pottery/tile industry based on coastal terrace clay and ceramic clay
7) Agro industries: vegetable oil, castor oil, animal feed, leather works, oil-palm, fruit juice and puree factory, orchard growing for export, coconut oil extraction and fibre factory

5th NDP (1986-90)
1) Agriculture and livestock industry:
• Rice, Tropical Fruits, Vegetables, Cattle, buffalo and goat, Chicken and Eggs
2) Fisheries:
• Marine fish, Aquaculture: freshwater and brackish water, Fish meal
3) Forestry:
• Using swamp forest product for plywood, Fibre-board factory using woodchips from the sawmill factories
4) Manufacturing:
• Food processing: canning and packaging,
• Furniture
• Potteries and Tiles
• Textiles: high value added types of garments using modern and traditional technologies
• Cement factory to grind imported clinker
• Precast concrete factory
• Chemicals and dyes
• Plywood and Wood paneling
• Glass from silica sands in Tutong

5) Tertiary Industry: Banking and finance, Insurance, Maintenance services

6) Financial Centre
7) Trade Centre
8) High value-added, non-labour intensive industries
9) Bio industry

6th NDP (1991-1995)
1) Industry
• Industrial sites to be developed in 3 districts
• Identified industries are:
o Mini steel plant
o Light-weight aggregate
o Dairy milk
o Glass
o Pre-cast
2) Agriculture:
o Rice
o Hydrophonic vegetables
o Eggs and poultry
o Local fruits and production of seedlings
o Horticulture
o Buffaloes and goats

3) Forestry: Rattan plantation for furniture industry
4) Fisheries: Marine fish

7th NDP (1996-2000)
1) Oil sector:
• Plan to develop the oil and gas industry into downstream activities including:
i. Ammonia/Urea
ii. Methanol
iii. Export Oriented Refinery
iv. Other Petrochemical such as plastics and paints

2) Primary Sector:
• To produce 7% of rice requirements;
• To maintain the self-sufficiency level of egg production;
• To meet 70% of local chicken needs;
• Increase production of vegetables, plants and ornaments and livestocks;
• Aquaculture projects tp produce high values species for export

8th NDP (2001-2005)
1) Oil and gas sector:
• Oil and gas downstream activities

2) Industry
• Value-added industry such as food processing
• Export specialized services such as engineering, Islamic banking, law, economy, accounting, architecture and estate management.
• Manufacturing: Construction materials and equipment, garment and furniture.

3) Primary Sector
• Agriculture targets:
 3% of rice requirement
 To meet 94% of vegetable needs
 To meet 47% self-sufficiency in fruit production.
 Increase production of ornamentals horticulture industry.
• Livestock industry:
• Broiler industry to meet 100% self-sufficiency
• Poultry production to maintain 100% self sufficiency level.

• Fishery sector:
• Production of rostris prawn
• Production of other fish species such as mud crab, golden snapper and barramundi cod.

4) Tourism and Trade
• Develop more eco-tourism destinations.
• Promotion of cottage industry such as:
• Traditional food, Weaved cloths, Rattan furniture, Plaited products, Malay Cap, Sculptures and carving, Woodwork, Silverware, Brassware, Malay dagger, Boats
5) Banking, Finance and Insurance
• To become an international financial centre through BIFC

6) Other promoted sectors:
• ICT for k-ekonomy; Transhipment activities.

Personally, I believe there is nothing wrong for us to come up with ‘new ideas’ for new projects each year, but we need to supply our ‘ideas’ (especially the fancy ones) with some strategies and plan of execution I suppose. Otherwise, it will just be another list in the non-exhaustive yet-to-be-achieved projects.

I have done the basic dirty work of compiling this list. For anyone out there who is thinking of pursuing a Masters degree and/or a PhD, I hope this is of some use to you. (Panjang amal). This could be used as a basis of developing a research question, I think.

Salaam.

A Blessing in Disguise, right?

These days almost on daily basis we read about the impending recession that will happen in the UK and the US which will affect many-many countries whose economies depend on the demands from these countries. Those, coupled with the increasing global food prices and the skyrocketing oil price, mean doom and gloom for the world economy.

Then I thought are we lucky or what? This is what I think, for some blessing-in-disguise sort of luckiness, all of the world events may probably have little effects on us. Thanks to oil, we have not been producing anything else which means we will not be affected by the fall in world demand of anything, well..except oil. As long as oil price goes up, then we haven’t got anything to complain. Our economy will continue its growth. Our inflation stays low (thanks also to oil money that have been used to subsidise our cost of living). And if there will be a recession, we will actually stand to gain. A world recession will push the prices of all goods (including food) downward. Since we import almost ALL of our needs, then we can continue not producing anything and buy from abroad, which in fact will become cheaper.

And then we all can continue growing… without development.

And of course, if only oil never runs dry.

Salaam.

Happy Birthday

Happy 62nd Birthday to our beloved His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah.
Thank You very much for your kindness and generosity to us.
May you be blessed with good health for many years to come.

Life After Oil

I was reading the post made by Brunei Resources on ‘Life Without Oil’. He suggested that Brunei should either decrease government spending and/or increase our tax base, which in economics term is what we call ‘contractionary fiscal policy’. This policy is usually applicable to an economy that has a budget surplus, which thanks to the soaring oil price, is actually the case for Brunei. But if you take the oil effect, Brunei’s budget will not be as handsome as it is today.

The effect of a contractionary fiscal policy will be a reduction in the aggregate demand which is not exactly the right prescription for a country that has little economic activities. Having said that however does not mean that the government should just spend all its income. It should be mindful of what it is it’s spending on. What we want is productive spending (and I agree with Mr. BR, this does not include subsidy). Spending that can stimulate the non-oil economy. And we want lots of this. Being a small economy (defined as having a small population) is not without its problem. And for that reason I personally think we need a strong government support (while it is still able) to help the economy as much as it can.

But the question of life after oil is still unanswered.

To answer this, we need Ricardian’s Theory of Comparative Advantage which says that we should produce and specialize in the production or services in which we have comparative advantage. What? You may ask. I say, look around us. We are so fortunate to have plenty of sun, land and sea, which I believe are extremely under-utilized. With a bit of hard work, I’m sure Brunei can develop its comparative advantage. If Singapore, an island that has an extremely limited natural resource can become one of the Asian’s dragons or Liechtenstein with a population of about 34,000 people and equally has a limited amount of natural resources can become one of the highly industrialising economies, then so can Brunei!

Life without oil will not be the end of the world as long as we do something about it. And we should start NOW. The current generation must help the future generation in the transition of oil to non-oil economy. Any ‘rentier’ habit has to be removed from the current system and the mindset of all Bruneians. With the right attitude, the right mind and the right policy Brunei could and should thrive. There must also be a strong will both from the government and the people and of course, some hard work too.

Salaam.

Battle of the Schools, Revisited.

I received many comments for my post on schools in Brunei a few months ago. While I do not doubt that parents’ involvement in their children’s education is imperative, I still believe that schools and teachers equally play an important role. I also agree that at the end of the day, it is the children’s own efforts that determine their achievement and those who have ‘the brain’ will make it anywhere. Although I do not think this is fair.

It still appears to me that most parents (including myself) do not really have a concrete reason why we send our children to a private school than to a government school. We assume we know the reason. We assume that by paying more, our children will learn more. Often, our choice of school is influenced by words of mouth. When we see or hear children of our friends or relatives are doing well in a particular school (which is almost always a private school), we assume our children will also be doing well in the same school. Now, if this is true (i.e. a private school is better) then those children who have able parents will almost certainly get better education. What about those children whose parents cannot afford to send them to a private school?

But the question remains, do we really know that a private school is better than a government school? Does the money we spend worth the quality of teachings our children are receiving?

Generally, we do not know the real performance of a school, the performance of the students, let alone the performance of the teachers. We do not know whether school A is better than school B. I remember when my husband and I went for school-hunting a few years back. We went to a few schools and all we were given was a few forms to fill along with the fee schedules. There was no information on the performance of the school or any information why we should choose that school. In the end, I had to rely on words of mouth, which is not an informed decision.

Here in the UK for example, we have the Office for Standards in Education (OFSTED). Every school is inspected and assessed. In the comfort of my chair I get to read reports about all of the schools in the area which are published in their website. Every school that I visited also gave me a copy of this report.

Now, this is what I call a transparent system that leads to an informed choice which we are sadly, lacking. Now, I don’t know the content of the Ministry of Education’s SPN21, I hope transparency is also one of the agenda. It will not only help parents make the ‘right’ decision, it will also ensure the quality of our schools, be it private or government. And most of all, it can ensure that every child receives a good quality education.

When all schools are assessed and results made public, naturally every school will want to be the best and want to improve their past performance. This will not only benefit the children and the parents but will surely benefit the entire education system. Who knows, if the government schools prove that they are better than the private schools, parents don’t even have to fork hundreds of dollars each month. And that will be sweet indeed…

Salaam.

Life-long Learning in Brunei

There will be 2 exciting international conferences to be held in Brunei:

1. Brunei International Halal Market Conference on 16-17 August 2008;
2. International Conference on Economics of Higher Energy and Food Prices: Future Scenarios and Implications for Developing Economics on 7-8 January 2009.

So, do take these opportunities. Attend, learn and don't forget to ask questions :)

Salaam.

Brunei and Oil Love Affair

My friend Roger Lawrey talks about Brunei's diversification.
I couldn't agree more.

Salaam.

Road to Diversification

There has been another ‘exciting’ development in Brunei’s quest to diversify its economy (or I hope it is what we are doing), and that is Brunei wishes to be the ‘city in the garden’. Is this just a mere statement or is this a real project with plans and strategies already being formulated? If it is a real project, I would love to know and maybe contribute ideas but if it isn’t, then Brunei better do something about it because you can’t just announce to the world that you want to be something and not do it and expect the world to forget.

The thing about us in Brunei is that we love to make fancy headlines: ‘halal branding’, ‘heart of Borneo’, 'Kingdom of Unexpected Treasures', ‘service hub (ShuTT)’, ‘ICT park’, ‘offshore financial centre’, ‘Brunei Inc. (or something like that)’, just to name a few. Please don’t take me wrong, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t do this or we cannot dream big but I have yet to see the end products.

I think the main reason why we have not achieved anything in relation to these ‘fancy’ projects or actually ANY project is that there is a lack of detailed plan and strategies. Even if there is one, it is never shared with the public let alone debated. Even worse it is sometimes not even shared among the relevant agencies. As a result the public, including the private sector, do not understand, never mind contribute, and therefore the project is not appreciated and supported.

Take for example ‘halal branding’. Seriously, I don’t fully understand what is it that we want to do? What is our objective? Can it create massive employment? Can it increase food production? How much resources are we devoting? What is our problem? Why does it take so long? How can we help? Do we mean to say that ‘Brunei Halal’ is better that ‘Malaysia Halal’ or ‘Thailand Halal’? Because believe me, when I go to a shop abroad I only look for ‘Halal’ products. Taste and packaging play a more important role in my decision to buy a particular halal product.

I am no expert but I think it is high time that Brunei goes to the basic of development and economic diversification. Instead of devoting our energy and resources to fancy projects, wouldn’t it be better to concentrate in the actual production? I for one want to hear plans for massive agricultural production or fishery or any kind of manufacturing. It sounds boring but it is what we most need to survive. Do remember that we only have 25 years to turn our economy around. And that is not a very long time.

Salaam.

Reality Bites....in Miri

Somebody sent me a link to a blog post by one of our Sarawakian friends. For the benefit of those who do not have a Multiply account, here it is:

MONEY WITH A DIMINISHING VALUE by Zaidil

There is a sudden change in atmosphere in Miri city after the fuel price hike. There are less cars on the road. The shopping centres are less crammed and worst of all... there are not that many happy faces around. From what I sensed, it is just the beginning. The experts predicted that the trend is likely to continue that way for quite some time. So what do we do?

Nothing much I am afraid. If you are an optimist, you will say - work harder so that you can earn more to compensate for the diminishing value of the currency. At the rate the price of goods is increasing you have to earn at least 2 times what you earned a month ago in order to maintain the same level of lifestyle.By the end of this year, you have to earn 4 times what you earned in April. This week Abdullah has just announced that if you work in the govt, you are allowed to do a part time business. Wonder how will that affect the already inefficent govt agencies?

On the other hand, if you are a pessimist, you will start looking for scapegoats and punchbags to put the blame on.

The situation is however not all gloom and doom. The bright side of it all is that there is a lot less road accidents ever since the price hike was annunced and people started to use the public transport more. Actually last sunday was the first time that I went to Boulevard supermarket without anyone ramming my butt with the trolley. I had the entire supermarket for myself.

Another positive development is that people started to think of growing their own vegetables and rice which I think is not a bad idea at all. Myself, I am thinking of digging the document bag to search for that land title which my grand father left more than a decade ago. With a bit of luck the cockroaches have not been so hungry to savour the land title and I might be able to harvest my own Bario rice. Oh do I have to fly to Bario to grow Bario rice!!

We should be grateful that Brunei still maintains the fuel subsidy (I don't know when will that last though, and I'm not sure whether it is the most sensible and rational policy). Nevertheless, I'm sure Brunei is also affected by the policy change in Malaysia. Perhaps this effect will probably even bigger than an effect of a reduction in Brunei's fuel subsidy.

Too bad for a country that depends on too much import.
But that's reality. And reality bites.

Salaam

Oil Price

I received an email today asking my view on the current issue of the current global oil price hike and the possible 'answer' to the crisis. It has been in my head the whole day today and I'd like to share you my reply to the email. I also believe that as an oil producing country ourselves (albeit small), this issue concerns us. I would also love to hear other views.

Below is the content of the email:

Dear Freakonomist,
I'm Raiza, an ordinary person who wonders alot on what on earth is gona happen to the world when the oil price hits US$200/ barrel which in turn would give a spiralling effect to the worlds economy wreaking havoc the global financial market. Understanding that you believe there is an economic explanation to everything intrigues me and leads me to email you on the following issues. I humbly request for your opinions and explanations.

What has been bothering me lately is the fact that inflations are occuring in most countries, Brunei is of no exception. I strongly believe that one contributing factor to this is the disturbing rise in oil price.

There are several excuses to the rise in oil price:
1) The global demand for oil is rising.
2) The dollar continues to fall to record lows.
3) And, OPEC refuses to raise production levels, insisting US recession will lower.

Today's newspaper mentions despite the Jeddah Summit where policy makers gathered to have emergency energy talks and that Saudi agreed to increase production by 200,000 barrels to 9.7 million per day, the oil price continues to rise. The rise in oil price this time is blamed on possible terrorist activities in Nigeria. If this is true then yes this would choke oil supplies hence demands on oil can not be answered fully.
Unless... more explorations are done which will mean more huge investments are needed. The story on the energy crisis seems to go on and on and no apparent favorable explanation to resolve the said crisis.

My question now is what are all the possible 'solutions' that can help the world to return to its stable state in the short-term and medium-term? Going green is one but this surely will cost us time! I hope to hear from you soon.

This is my reply:

Thanks so much for reading my blog. If I know the answer to your question then, I wouldn’t be sitting here at home and writing this :).

Nevertheless, this is what I think:

1. I don’t think there is an ‘easy’ solution to the current global crisis because as you clearly point out, there are several reasons to the rise in the oil price. Addressing one or trying to do so without solving the others, does not guarantee that the issue will be resolved, as is the case to the Saudi’s agreement to increase oil production (i.e. oil price remains high).

2. The US needs to strengthen its dollars but that would mean at the expense of the US economy, which as we speak, is ailing. A stronger dollar may worsen their Balance of Payment, which would not help their economic health. But a continuous weak dollar will surely be followed by a continuous increase in the oil price.

3. And then there is a problem of increasing global demand. Now, the ‘economically’ right thing to do is for all governments in the developing countries (where oil demand is high and growing) to remove any oil subsidy. If the domestic oil prices in these countries reflect the international price, then demand for oil will surely go down. But this is (as you can imagine) not without a great cost.

4. Another factor that’s causing the increase in price, if I may add, is the work of the commodity index buyers and speculators. Now, this needs to be stopped.

Without doing all of the above then sadly, it may be true that the only solution to the energy crisis is an actual global recession.

Unputdownable

A few months ago somebody left a comment in my tag box, recommending me to read ‘Confessions of an Economic Hit Man’ by John Perkins. It was an interesting read although I don’t know if I believe him. To me, the book is more about politics than economics. Nevertheless, it is a good book and thank you to whoever it was who recommended it. I'm now eyeing 'Rogue Economics' by Loretta Napoleoni (now sitting on my bedside table) which probably is similar to Perkin's but hopefully will have more economics (I was quite surprise to find this book at Borders, with that title and its woman author).

But 'Rogue Economics' needs to wait for a bit because currently I’m reading Lee Kwan Yew’s Memoir: The Singapore Story - From Third World to First. Now, this book is what I call ‘unputdownable’. It is 700 pages (I’ve finished two-third) and the second book of his 2-part memoir. I read the first book when I was pregnant with my eldest daughter and it was an OK book (too much history, and I’m no good with history). But this second book is excellent! He is one of the best writers I’ve come across. He used only simple, straight-forward English, with hardly any jargon or big words, yet his description of the numerous events were alive. I felt as I if I was in his head.

Most of all, I feel this is one of those books that policymakers (especially in Brunei) should read. The book is loaded with economic and development policies. There are many (Singapore) policies that we can relate to and perhaps can ‘try, test’ with probably some modifications based on our resources and our own national objectives.

Speaking of good writers, I also follow with interest Dr. Mahathir’s blogsite. I’ve read most of his books but I love his speeches more. He has the ability to speak and write (especially his blog posts) clearly and delivers what’s in his mind structurally.

Don’t get me wrong, besides the serious stuff, I also read fiction novels. I am a Harry Potter’s fan. Until today, I have yet to find another writer who can rival J.K. Rowling’s HP. (Any suggestion, out there?). My interests also vary. I read Dan Brown to Neil Gaiman to Jeffery Archer to Jodi Picoult to Sophie Kinsella, of course. And I am a sucker for romance too (hehe) especially historical romance. I’m now into children’s novels (that Young Bond books look interesting).

Anyway, I hope one day I will also get to write an ‘unputdownable’ book too. In the meantime, I'm going to curl up in bed and finish the Singapore Story.

Salaam.

Meritocracy

I've been busy in the past few weeks finishing the final chapter of my dissertation. Alhamdulillah...it's done. But work is not over for me. I need to revise my earlier work. Time flies fast. It's almost 4 years. I can't wait to get to the end. Insya Allah, I will get to the end.

My husband has also finished his course which means it's just another step for him to become a fully qualified international architect. I'm sure he will.

Anyway, both of us believe that education is a lifetime investment (and equally, a lifetime pursuit). Admittedly, it is tough and not easy. There are also times when we question ourselves whether it's worth it. The time and the money we spent - We could have bought a BMW or a Mercedes (that's what I always said to my husband, haha). But most of all, we wonder whether or not we can use what we have learnt to contribute to the development of Brunei?

I'm sorry but Brunei has yet to prove that it's a nation of meritocracy, where people are rewarded for their contribution (regardless of the age) and not for their length of service or worse, for certain 'birthrights'. If Brunei wants to change, it needs to accept and adapt new ideas and new technologies that Bruneians have acquired abroad or even within the country. It needs to listen and encourage its people to question, to debate and to offer solutions. There should also be a two-way communication. Only then Brunei can breed intellectuals and thinkers among the entrepreneurs, the professionals and the policy-makers, who I believe will help create a much diversified Brunei, a dynamic Brunei.

Salaam

Random Post: Sami Yusuf - Munajat (Arabic)

Sorry, no economics today...

This is one singer that can help soothe the trouble and sadness in my heart. The song is in arabic and the translation is below:

Alone, in the darkness of my night
In the loneliness of my path
My worries weigh me down
My sins pain me

Alone, I supplicate to You and I hope
From my sins I complain
I have no one but You
I am at Your door

CHORUS:
Ya Allah, ya Allah
So forgive a servant who intimately calls You
O Allah, O Allah
You are all hope, From You is guidance
O Allah, O Allah

O Allah give me your guidance
For I am still imprisoned
Of disobedience I am no longer capable
So illuminate my paths and forgive my sins
For I am poor and in need of You

My heart has returned to walk on the path
Full of joy and longing, flying to God
And its only hope is gaining your pleasure
On the day of meeting You
You are the Omnipotent.

www.samiyusuf.com
Salaam.

Boost Agricultural Production A.S.A.P

Today Malaysia announced the increase in fuel prices, lifting their price ceiling in the move to reduce government subsidy. It is quite shocking actually. I didn’t expect the price increase would be ‘that’ much. (Note: for a very interesting thought about this by Dr Mahathir, click here).

The effect of this will not only be felt in Malaysia, but Brunei too. Malaysia is one of Brunei’s main trading partners. 20 percent of Brunei’s total import comes from Malaysia. About 40 percent of Brunei’s total food import comes from Malaysia. Malaysia is Brunei’s main source of food supply. When Malaysia’s fuel prices rise, we should expect their prices of all other goods will also go up. Naturally, we will also import their inflation. And that is bad news to our consumers.

All of the events that take place around the world including the current world’s food crisis cannot and should not be taken lightly.

Therefore, I think it is high time Brunei seriously thinks about its food production. Enough talk (actually I don’t hear any talk at all since HM’s titah during the Leg Co), act. Fast. Make it Brunei’s ‘emergency’ priority agenda. Set up an ‘agricultural’ fund if we must. At times like this, what the government should do in fact is to attract people to develop the agricultural industry. Call it a fast-track strategy or whatever. Get as many Bruneians or even non-Bruneians to produce food in our country. The government cannot afford to be choosy. Cut down those red tapes! (I tell you, somebody I know tried applying for some land to be developed 2 years ago. Until today, he has not heard from the Agriculture Department). Somebody please do something!

We shouldn’t think that all the events happening around us will pass on any time soon. It could go on and on. We really should use it as a catalyst to achieve our (long overdue) national food security objective. Increasing agricultural production should be the long-term solution for Brunei. We really cannot afford to just sit and wait and do nothing. Because whether you like it or not, for a country that has a high dependence on food import, these events affect us. High food price will increase the cost of living. Well, I guess I’ll leave you to your imagination to picture the effects of that.

Salaam.

Consumer Loyalty Switch

I received the email from RBA informing that they have achieved the e-ticketing target. So, what does that mean? Would they be able to improve their performance and sales? Because I can tell you that our loyalty to our national carrier has now been transferred to another, due to their poor service and sales strategy.

It happened about 4 weeks ago. When I received the (most) distressing news (ever in my whole life) from my sister, we wanted to fly home immediately, as in the very next day. It was on Saturday afternoon. I called RBA London and was answered by a machine saying that the office was now closed. I was shouting my heart out! This was Saturday afternoon in England! For goodness sake, why the BL**DY H*LL are you closed?!! Saturday in England is like THE day for business to make a lot of money.

Then we tried the RBA website. And guess what, the earliest travel date that I could book from their website was in the next 48 hours! I was gobsmacked! How ridiculous is this? RBA website is not some travel agent’s website trying to sell other airlines’ tickets. It is selling its own tickets, isn’t it? Why isn’t the website connected to their booking system? Honestly, I nearly fainted! Furthermore, the price it quoted me to travel in 3 days time (the earliest available seats) was double the normal ticket (about GBP1200 per person, if I’m not mistaken). Now where is the economics in that? Aren’t few cheaper seats better than empty seats? Charging higher fare for the last few seats is only justifiable and economically sound if there is no other airline travels to the same destination.

So, my husband calmed me down and suggested that I tried Singapore Airlines. Lo and behold! Within 5 minutes, the website gave me all the combinations of the travel dates that I could purchase, as early as the very next morning! And the prices…oh sweetness… (Thank You ALLAH!) were about GBP700 for an adult and about GBP500 for a child RETURN tickets inclusive of tax and services.

And YES, it was the double-decker Airbus 380. “WOW…” was the word uttered by my 2 daughters when they entered the aircraft.
And... RBA has lost in sales of 4 used-to-be loyal customers.

What I like even better is the fact that the SQ offered a straight, uninterrupted journey to/from Singapore, which is fantastic especially for my children. They get to have enough sleep. They sleep, we sleep. And therefore we wake up happy. Unlike RBA. We have to make a transit in Dubai, which honestly is the MOST annoying thing to do for travellers with children, especially the journey returning to London. Just imagine parents travelling with small children, who have to be woken up from their sleep- grumpy and tired, just to get off the aircraft and make a long walk along the Dubai airport just to board the aircraft again in 15 minutes. It is ridiculous!

And after sampling A380, with its fantastic uninterrupted, perfectly working personal screen in-flight entertainment [don’t even let me start on RBA’s in-flight entertainment! Which has to constantly be reset by the air-stewardess which results in my children getting angry and I (almost always) bang my head on the screens], my husband and I have promised ourselves that WHENEVER POSSIBLE, we will not use RBA for any long distance journey again. EVEN if there is a price difference. Because some things, such as COMFORT and peace of mind, are simply priceless.

I am no expert in airlines or even travel business but I’m sure it is all about satisfying customers. Plus the airline business is also in a perfect competition market. If RBA continues its shoddy sales strategy, funny flight route combinations and poor in-flight entertainment, I’m not surprised that it will be losing more and more of its customers.

Salaam.

Sadness

The past few weeks had been very difficult. It is still difficult. The pain is still raw. There were mixed emotions: shock, angry and sad. At times how I wish I could just curl-up and cry myself out or I would sleep and sleep until I wake up and find everything is just one hell of a nightmare.

There is no regret and I will never ask Allah why. I know He Knows best and the Most Merciful. It was heartbreaking to see the man who brought me into the world, lying helpless and was in most unimaginable pain. When the doctor told me his condition, I prayed so hard that if there was any good deed that I had done which had been accepted, please God exchange it with mercy to my father. Please take away the pain. Merciful Allah, I seek solace in the thought that he didn't suffer long.

My only regret is that I didn't get to give him a better life. Seeing him looking strong, healthy and always jolly made me took things for granted. Never once I thought he would leave us now. But as much as we love him, Allah loves him more.

To everyone reading this, I Thank You. It is not my intention to share this sadness in my life. I only ask you to learn from my mistake. For those of you who are still blessed with a mother and/or a father, please shower them with your love. Make them happy. Ask for their health. Help their problems. Give them presents. For there is no other person in this world that we owe more than our parents. We owe them our lives.

Salaam.

A Tribute to My Father

Dear Bapa,

You Shall Be Missed and Remembered.
I wish I've Said it Before but I Love You.
Never Said It, Always Meant It.

I Promise I Will Carry Your Name and I Will Make You Proud.

'Al-Fatihah' to My Late Father who passed away peacefully on 14th May 2008 (8 JamadilAwal 1429) at the age of 63.

Public School vs. Private School

One of the decisions we need to make upon returning to Brunei is choosing which school to send our children to. Like other parents, obviously we want the best for them. And this would probably mean a private school instead of a public one. But I keep asking myself how do we really define ‘the best school’? And why do we Bruneians always have the perception that a private school (in particular the primary level) is better than the public school.

Here in England both my children go to a public school. And fortunately for us (and them) the school is one of ‘the’ best schools in this part of England. Parents are willing to move in the area just so that their children can go to this school. I remember the headmaster was telling us that the number of children who were applying for the reception class (kindergarten 2) was always triple the number of available spots. That’s how good it is.

But most importantly, my children love their school. Even if they are unwell, they will want to go to their school. They’re happy, we’re happy. We are even happier when last month, during parents-teacher meeting, we were told that our children were doing extremely well in school. Our eldest daughter who is only 6 and in year 1 seems to be on advance levels in most of her subjects. And I don’t know how their system works, but my daughter proceeds with her advance learning in her class, instead of waiting for the rest of the children.

Now, somebody tell me where can I get a similar school in Brunei, without burning a big hole in our savings account? Is there a public school in Brunei as good as this? And most importantly, what makes a good school?

I don’t know about you, but I believe ‘teachers’ make a good school. For example, there are many other schools in our area where we live, with the same system, the same facilities, but my kids’ school is ranked one of the best. If all schools are the same, then the only differences between them are the teachers. So, a good school must be due to good teachers. The same must also apply in Brunei. However, I have yet to hear a good public primary school (the one that every parent wants to send their children to).

This brings me to the next question, why do we Bruneians always think that our children will do much well in a private school? The MOE’s statistics shows that 43 per cent of about 69,000 children go to private primary schools despite a higher teacher/student ratio in the private school (1 teacher to 15 students in the private schools and 1 teacher to 9 students in the public schools). [Is there statistics on the performance of public/private students in exams?]

Using the above reasoning (since almost all schools follow the same curriculum set by the MOE), then could the reason why people think the private scholls are better is because the teachers and/or the quality of teaching are better than those in the public schools (who I believe are more well paid and more qualified with schools which have better facilities)? If this is true, then I would love to know WHY then our public teachers are not doing well? If this is not true then why do public teachers and the MOE’s officers and staff (who are looking after the quality of public schools) send their own children to private schools (which just show their own lack of faith in the quality of their own teachings/system)?

Or is it because of our ‘materialistic’ mentality? Where our society sees public schools, despite better facilities and more qualified teachers, as second rated. Where parents would rather have a mountain of debt, then be seen sending their children to a public school?

All the talk about the Ministry of Education’s SPN21 is quite interesting and I hope the results will not only improve our education system in Brunei but can also help change the general perception of the public schools. Because at the moment, as much as I want to argue and convince myself that both my husband and I are the products of public schools and we turn out to be OK, I still cannot make myself send my children to a public school. Simply because I don’t have the faith :(.

Salaam.

Banks and Investment

The Minister of Finance II said:

"The banking industry, in this country today, sits on over $13 billion in
public deposits, much of which invariably end up being invested offshore and
as these deposits represent a vital capital resource of the country, ideally
it should be deployed for the country's benefit"

I absolutely agree with him! And I also support his encouragement for the financial institutions to:

"...shift towards corporate lending and investment banking and wealth management
and other fee-based activities would be heeded and responded to not just in
letter but also in spirit by all financial institutions in the country."

(here for full news)

However, I cannot help feeling envious towards Malaysia which has the SME Bank or Thailand which also has its own SME Development Bank (which incidently are the subsidiaries of their respective Finance Ministries) to look (solely) after their SMEs' development needs.


Salaam.

Big Salary, Enough Salary?

Today, thousands of teachers in the UK went on strike and as a result thousands of schools were closed, forcing millions of parents to look for alternative daycare for their children. Thankfully, my children's school didn't participate so school was normal for them.

Today was the teachers. Previously, the university lecturers, the postmen/women and the policemen/women also went on strike due to dispute over pay rise.

I'm thankful that no such incidence has ever happened in Brunei. I cannot imagine the reaction from our government :). But then the pay and perks in the government sector are higher compared to the private sector. Whether or not the current salary scales are appropriate (i.e. taking into account the inflation growth rates over the years) is however another question. I can see the dilemma our government would be facing if the current wage rates are found to be below the appropriate rates. If it raises the scale, it will further widen the public-private wage gap.

Don't take me wrong. I'm not asking for a pay rise. But I think it is unavoidable and equally necessary for some sort of study on the appropriateness of the current salary scale to be carried out especially in the light of poverty reduction. The results will not only be used to aid the poverty alleviation policy but will also be useful in other policies and most of all will be very, very interesting (at least to me!).

Salaam.

Rejuvenate Brunei's GLCs

What interests me the most, while browsing the World Trade Policy Review of Brunei, is this bit of information:

(Per cent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Saving and investment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gross national savings 47.2 48.6 51.4 59.1 62.4
Gross domestic investment 21.3 15.1 13.5 11.4 10.4
Savings-investment gap 26.0 33.6 37.9 47.8 52.1

(sorry, I'm no good in pasting the Table. For the full set click here and I refer to Table 1.2)

The saving-investment gap is huge! And the gap is because there is too much saving and too little investment (which isn’t usually the case in many countries). Now, if you’re an economics student and using Year 1 Macroeconomics, you will know that this excessive saving means there is a capital account surplus which could lead to a glut in the economy which eventually could lead to a recession.

Now, my question is why oh why are we acting as if we do not have enough capital to move the economy? To be specific, we are acting as if we’re having a gap that is caused by too little saving and therefore needs an external financing i.e. the FDI. And I have the impression that we seem to be helpless without the FDI. Now, I’m not saying that FDI is not important and I’m sure I don’t have to enumerate the reasons why we need an FDI. What I’m trying to say is that, given the availability of excessive domestic capital, it is high time that Brunei should also place the importance of the domestic investment in the effort to diversify the economy.

Despite the excessive capital however, the private sector in Brunei is weak, both in terms of resources and expertise, to undertake any major domestic investment. Therefore it is imperative (and equally inevitable) for the government sector to assist the private sector development, in particular, to do the investing.

To tell you the truth, at the beginning I wanted to propose the establishments of government-linked companies (GLCs) the likes of Singapore, but then I remembered, we DO have GLCs! Unfortunately for some reasons our GLCs are very quiet (if not, I wouldn’t have forgotten hehe) and do not appear to be spearheading the investment efforts.

I’m sure by now, many of you will be saying that Brunei’s GLCs won’t work because their managers and Board of Directors are civil servants who lack business acumen, risk-averse, slow in decision-making and their investments mainly political as opposed to commercially motivated. TRUE! And for this precise reason, I believe we need to rejuvenate our GLCs by removing (or perhaps reducing) the number of civil servants in the companies. Let’s put true entrepreneurs and real managers. If we can’t find locals then for the love of Brunei, hire (the best money can buy) foreign experts! Because the lack of competent local human resource to drive the economy is our main problem in the first place (which is nothing to be ashamed of, given our small population and the current nature of our economy, however this does not mean that Brunei’s HR should forever be at the current state) and I don't see anything wrong in hiring foreign talents. Nevertheless, we should be using Singapore as an example. Singapore’s phenomenal economic growth is, after all, the result of its strategy of ‘state capitalism’.


Let’s face the fact, we are not exactly a foreign investment magnet and on its own, our private sector is too weak and too small to drive the economy. At the same time, our oil is depleting. Therefore, I believe the inevitable solution is for the government, through its GLCs, to assume a proactive role both in the entrepreneurial development and the economic diversification effort. For the GLCs to assume this role efficiently, they need to have adequate resources and most importantly become proper business entities which mean risk-taking and being competitive. It is time for the government to let go its domineering role in the GLCs’s decision-makings and to also take the risk. Because if it doesn’t, then the only alternative for Brunei is for us to pray (very hard) for oil to never runs dry.

Salaam.

Moral Hazard

I'm quite pleased that someone brought the issue of moral hazard in my last post. Because to me it is precisely the reason why currently there is a debt of $15 million.

For those of you who do not know what moral hazard is, it is a 'behaviour' that occurs when someone KNOWS that he will not bear the full consequences of his action. (Notice my emphasis on 'knows'). So in the case of the housing debt we talked about in the last post, people are not paying simply because they know that there is nothing the government will do.

And this is also precisely the reason why we should have different sets of policies for different sets of people (and probably different sets of houses). At the moment, everybody (the poor, the rich and those in between) is paying the same amount of money with the same set of terms and conditions, which to me simply is not fair. And I also believe that this is the reason why any kind of enforcement is difficult because by 'punishing' one debtor entails the 'punishment' of ALL debtors, regardless of the economic status of the debtor. So, while sending a summon or court order or even confiscating the house of those debtors who are actually able to pay can be accepted as a just and a proper action, it is however morally unacceptable to do the same thing to those who are genuinely unable to pay.

Therefore I believe that my suggestion to write off the debts of those who are genuinely unable to pay i.e the poor and ONLY the poor, will not lead to moral hazard. The effectiveness however lies in the efficiency of the relevant agency to detect who is genuinely unable to pay and who is not and to be ready with the 'punishment' to those who are attempting deception.

Anyway, while the objective of providing a roof or a land for every Brunei household perhaps sounds simple, it does not necessarily mean that the policy needs also be simple (i.e. one policy, applies to all) which has proven that it is NOT simple at all. I believe nothing wrong with some creativity in policy-making as long as the objective is met.

There is a need for us to be clear with our national objectives; and every policy or every department or even every ministry must cater to each and every objective. From my humble observation presently this is not the case. Everyone seems to be trying to be a champion and meet its own objectives which most often do not tally with the national objectives. Oh well, what do I know? I'm just a student with loads of 'idealistic but not necessarily realistic' theories, ya?

Salaam.

Housing Debt

According to the Dep Perm Sec of the Ministry of Development, there is a $15 million outstanding loans for the National Housing Scheme and Skim Tanah Kurnia Rakyat Jati, and this if repaid can help build an additional 100 houses of class E plus infrastructure (see here). In other countries, housing loan arrears can result in homelessness (i.e you'll be kicked out of the house!) but NOT in Brunei.

*Tsk*tsk* Shame on You! Ungrateful Bruneians..!

But then I said to myself, $15 million? Only?! The last I checked, Brunei’s GDP was $15.9 billion in 2005. If you think about it, that’s only about 0.09 per cent! As much as I want to condemn this act or irresponsibility, I am sure there are many cases of genuine inability to pay. In the spirit of eradicating poverty in Brunei, what is the possibility of writing-off some of those debts? Especially to the poor, actually ONLY to the poor.

At this stage, I’m sure some of you would say “NO Can Do!” because that’s what my husband just said : ). I do, of course share his fear that the moment you give something ‘free to the poor’ then everyone will claim that he/she is poor. But then I said, I can also claim I am the Queen of Sheba and I am sure no one would believe me unless I can produce some evidence. So, for a person to claim he/she is poor, he/she needs to produce the evidence including declaring his/her lack of wealth and property.

Now, you ask, what about those who have children who can bail out their parents? You see, I think we assume too much. I ask, what makes we think that the children are willing and able to do just that? And for this reason, I believe we must have a system that ensures that the payment of the house is the sole responsibility of the buyer (i.e. NOT his children Nor his guarantors).

OK, what I’m trying to say is that Brunei needs to review its housing schemes. I think we simply cannot have a “one shoe, fits all” policy. Clearly, those who are unfortunate and less-able should have a different set of terms and conditions and prices. On the other hand, we need to tighten the conditions to those who are able, ensuring that they WILL pay (including a mandatory insurance that covers death).

Nevertheless, at the end of the day I cannot help but think that it is actually up to the individual to uphold his/her responsibility. At this stage however, I am really sorry that Brunei is unfortunate to have many irresponsible, dishonest and selfish people.

Salaam.

Tourism oh tourism

This morning my husband and I were discussing about the place for our annual family vacation. Considering this year will be my last year in the UK, we thought of several places. Given our limited budget (otherwise we would love to travel to ALL places), we need to find a place which would give us the most value to the (limited available) money we spend, where the children and us can equally have a blast. In the end however, we settled for Disneyland Paris even though we went there 2 years ago.

For those of you who have been to Disneyland Paris, I'm sure you will agree that the place is super-fantastic and it has the X-factor (ie. the ability to make you feel, no matter how old you are, that you are in a fantabulous land and you wish you can stay there forever, well at least until your money runs out hehe). For those of you who haven't, then I can assure you IT IS :). And then there is Paris...the city of love *sigh*.

Now, if you apply the same rule to Brunei as a tourist destination, my question is what is our X-factor? What can we offer to a person who is spending his/her limited budget visiting our country? Or if I were the potential tourist, I ask WHY should I spend my hard-earned 700pounds (or any other amount for that matter) to come to Brunei?

Our quest to become one of THE tourist destinations in the South East Asia, in my opinion, is no easy feat. After all, look at our competitions in the region. However, I also think it is NOT impossible. Our main challenge is not that we don't have the factors that can make us THE tourist destination; rather it is the lack of will, determination and co-ordination among the relevant government departments.

Every time people bring up the issue of tourism, the first thing people talk about is that Brunei is a 'dry' country. The impression I get is that people seem to think that no alcohol= no tourists. What a lame excuse, really. It makes me wonder, do people really travel to consume alcohol (which they can find back home)? Now, before anyone argues FOR the changing of alcohol policy (I'm actually indifferent if the policy is reviewed), let us first look at what we can change without compromising our Islamic faith.

First, let's look at the beaches we have. We have beautiful beaches. Sadly however, the last time I visited them, they were dirty and not to mention the unspeakable state of the public washrooms. And for most of the time, nothing much was happening! Now, my questions are: 1) how expensive can it be to provide the service of beautifying our beaches? For goodness sake, you could even count the number of rubbish bins provided in each beach. For a rich country, I tell you, we are quite stingy! And 2) How difficult can it be to plan 12 types of happening activities for the 12 months of the year?

Next, we have our beloved old Kampong Ayer (Water Village) which is...simply old and dirty. I'm sorry I cannot help but 'smile' every time people mention Brunei being the 'Venice of the East'...Yes... that was aeons ago. Now, I'm not saying that we should just bulldoze Kampong Ayer. In fact, I am FOR preserving it. The challenge now is how to preserve it, beautify it and make it one of Brunei's X Factors. To me, this can only be done if ALL relevant authorities can put their heads together. This - the restoration of Kampong Ayer to its former glory, I believe, is the one project that actually deserves a foreign consultant. There are MANY issues to look into, among others are the sewerage system, an effective rubbish disposal, safety issues such as the fire-breaker system and the electrical system and last but not least, is the ways and means to make it into a desirable habitat of the 21st century!

And then, how about making Brunei into being THE family vacation destination? We used to have Jerudong Park. I tell you, it was the BEST! (At least in this region). Now, it has become a ghost park, which if the stories I heard were true, it really is a GHOST park (hehe). I wrote about JP some time ago (here) and my view still stands. Why aren’t we doing anything about it? Why are we wasting it? There is nothing you can do to UNDO the park so why don’t we make very good use of it? Honestly, I don’t understand. Really, if JP is restored, I think the tourism department won’t even have to spend another cent promoting Brunei.

Oh, and a PROPER Brunei Zoo, please! It is educational, fun and makes a natural (local and foreign) tourist destination.

Anyway, we have to accept the fact that Brunei can never be made into a 'wet and wild party' destination. But it doesn’t mean that Brunei can never be made into one of THE tourist destinations in the region. By declaring VISIT BRUNEI YEAR alone, doesn’t mean Brunei has become that destination. It needs combined efforts, strong will and obviously some spending. Otherwise, Brunei will forever be receiving this, this and this kinds of foreign tourists’ reviews.

Salaam.