Saturday 28 June 2008

Road to Diversification

There has been another ‘exciting’ development in Brunei’s quest to diversify its economy (or I hope it is what we are doing), and that is Brunei wishes to be the ‘city in the garden’. Is this just a mere statement or is this a real project with plans and strategies already being formulated? If it is a real project, I would love to know and maybe contribute ideas but if it isn’t, then Brunei better do something about it because you can’t just announce to the world that you want to be something and not do it and expect the world to forget.

The thing about us in Brunei is that we love to make fancy headlines: ‘halal branding’, ‘heart of Borneo’, 'Kingdom of Unexpected Treasures', ‘service hub (ShuTT)’, ‘ICT park’, ‘offshore financial centre’, ‘Brunei Inc. (or something like that)’, just to name a few. Please don’t take me wrong, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t do this or we cannot dream big but I have yet to see the end products.

I think the main reason why we have not achieved anything in relation to these ‘fancy’ projects or actually ANY project is that there is a lack of detailed plan and strategies. Even if there is one, it is never shared with the public let alone debated. Even worse it is sometimes not even shared among the relevant agencies. As a result the public, including the private sector, do not understand, never mind contribute, and therefore the project is not appreciated and supported.

Take for example ‘halal branding’. Seriously, I don’t fully understand what is it that we want to do? What is our objective? Can it create massive employment? Can it increase food production? How much resources are we devoting? What is our problem? Why does it take so long? How can we help? Do we mean to say that ‘Brunei Halal’ is better that ‘Malaysia Halal’ or ‘Thailand Halal’? Because believe me, when I go to a shop abroad I only look for ‘Halal’ products. Taste and packaging play a more important role in my decision to buy a particular halal product.

I am no expert but I think it is high time that Brunei goes to the basic of development and economic diversification. Instead of devoting our energy and resources to fancy projects, wouldn’t it be better to concentrate in the actual production? I for one want to hear plans for massive agricultural production or fishery or any kind of manufacturing. It sounds boring but it is what we most need to survive. Do remember that we only have 25 years to turn our economy around. And that is not a very long time.

Salaam.

9 comments:

Unknown said...

Our bandar has always been surrounded by jungles . Why dont we just called it, City in the Jungle! That will be a better catchphrase to give more wonders and attarct more visitors to come to Brunei.

Anonymous said...

hahaaha...city in the garden? Look at the existing plants, trees,along the highway? along the Jalan Sultan, and everywhere else...my god! they are NOT being looked after well! You are right..they are fond of fancy catchphrases, because they just found the phrases interesting and they have never used those phrases before in their composition when they were young, so, it's time for them to use those phrases without understanding the meanings and concepts! Another institution that is also fond of using "rhetorics" is obviously ubd..."world class", and "first class" are their favourite phrases...but, look at the internet now!

Anonymous said...

negative mentality is the 1st we nid to erase from our ppl's minds... i think our economy nids to focus on lots of things, however 2 types is essential: 1 area to make our nation self sufficient so that we do not nid to rely on imports (e.g. baras kabun etc) and the next area to focus on niche, as a small country, we nid to hav something other countries do not hav, always hav ths basic: is it cheaper to produce our own for its ppl or import them? we hav all those genius economists around, use them :)

once, we have ths, tourism and other stuff will flow naturally.
just imagine, if we go to thailand, we go buy sotong and durians, philippines, maids and skilled workers, UK, it must be their doc marts, london bridge watever, France, eiffel tower, crepes, holland, windmills, iceland (they hav a niche besides ice, i m sure heheh), australia, their billabongs, kangaroos, dubai, elburj, err, they hav all now lol... brunei, ada kain tenunan, durian kuning, human factor: lots of degree holders to send our own ehms lol etc...

Anonymous said...

i think the road to diversification is a really complex issue. im no expert, but for an economy to diversify, many many changes and new policy needs to be done. and not all citizens may want to accept it.

first and foremost, i agree with baz/s point of negative mentality. not many are willing to work a low positions and long hours etc. most have a requirement in their head of the jobs they wanna do, and tend to be choosy.

however, there are many other aspects we need to consider. For instance, if Brunei intend to be a global hub for islamic banking, they have to wrestle that with malaysia, and lately, spore, who are also eyeing a piece of islamic banking. Brunei needs to be unique with its policy, both in business and monetary policies.and this is hard if brunei's monetary policies is dependent with another country. next is, from a business point of view, the qns in the mind of an islamic bank ceo would be, "what can Brunei offer, that will attract us there, compared to malaysia, who curently is a leading islamic banking centre in the region, or spore, which a leading financial hub in e world?" recent reports said that HK is also vying for that piece of pie.

next on tourism, the very foundation i personally feel is the warmth of the citizen is really important. as a tourist u want to feel welcomed. like i said, im not a Bruneian, and when i visit the sultanate last year(note i was alone and not in a tour grp etc), most of the locals i meet wasnt friendly. from miri to bwn, i took a bus ,and on ocassions where i appear lost and ask people for directions, most locals didnt seem eager to help. and with my malay accent, i get that shunned look at most places(probably they think im msian?). the only person who was helpful was an indian bus driver. i never get that whenever i visit malaysia or indonesia. if the hospitality is good, it would be a good move.

another thing about diversification is, if we want to make it big in the global stage, we have to attract big. in asean region, high competition makes it virtually hard to do small diversification. for instance, companies would rather outsource to a country where other companies making raw materials is present, due to other cost etc. example, why would an islamic bank set up its centre in Brunei, if 30 other such banks are in malaysia? obviously setting up in malaysia would be better due to many reasons and their expertise in it for many years. and because of all these, there is a possibility Brunei needs to attract big to ensure they start moving. from experts, to low wage workers(if it intend to b a halal food hub) to make it big(also back to my first point where locals can be choosy in jobs, esp at the lower end).Just like Dubai. In other words, there is a possibility that with all these, Brunei will have a spike in population and many changes will happen. and how will the locals react? probably these are some of the things faced by the government nowdays, and hence slow the entire process. Just like Australia, where skill is highly needed, and an increase of asian migrants caused unhappiness to some locals. note that too much immigrants to push the diversification process, can cause land to be expensive, and can cause fuel subsidy to end. But to do small diversification, is risky at a highly competitive region, because ASEAN is a very unique region, as it has both countries that is a major player, and also countries that has cheap attractive labour.

ok maybe i talk too much, heh. all these are based on my views. i think for a rapid(within 25years) and stable diversification, many polices, the younger generation mindset needs to go for a major overhaul. bigger population with low skilled and experts MAYBE needed if intention is to play big, also rapid development/changes is needed so Brunei can grab that piece of pie quickly, before it goes to other countries.. but of course, some locals will not be happy. etc etc. lets hope we dont continue speaking the same things again in 5years time, because it could be too late by then.

Anonymous said...

I take it that wan is a Sarawakian (Malaysian). I must apologise on behalf of my country and people. If only we had bumped into each other during your 'road-trip' to our humble Abode of Peace, I would not only show you the way and direction but I would have driven you places in my small 'no-brander' Japanese car!;)

I don't know whatever happened to good old courtesy in the Brunei Society, particularly among the younger generation these days...:(

As far as diversification goes, I take my hats off to MARTRADE for having achieved what their action plans and strategies had set out to do years ago.

I am pretty much impressed with news of 1 Kelantanese and 1 Johorean "Kampung Boys made good" who have successfully turned simple "Ikan Kali (fresh water catfish)" & "Kambing (goats)" businesses respectively into million dollars worth in a matter of months. The latter young entrepreneur even set up his goatfarms in a neighbouring ASEAN country i.e. typhoon-hit Myanmar! Fortunately for him, his goat farms were not at all affected by recent floods.

My point in highlighting these Malaysian success stories is that our rich national coffers could have been and should be invested in these sort of investment or business incentive schemes in which young determined Bruneian entrepreneurs are given financial grants to build economically-viable and feasible business projects and ventures. And they should not only be confined and limited within the local domestic market but they should also be encouraged to open 'shops' outside of the country i.e. by employing skilled and experienced workers in host countries who are very much in abundance. After all products made from these investments will be exported back into Brunei anyways (balik jua modal kitani atu kali ah?).

Anonymous said...

thanks for the warmth anonymous..maybe can look out for you should i visit anytime soon =)..and no, im neither from sarawak nor from borneo. =)

anyway,just to add on, today's BT times had 2 intresting article, 1st tittles "rise in economic growth...." and the other that intrest me is regarding "....entry to oxford, cambridge".

please correct me if im wrong, but is it true that most Bruneian students only turn to western schools for a prestige education? I mean, for a country to diversify, i feel a balance between asian and western educated citizens is needed. There are prestigious asian universities(ranked constantly in the top 50 worldwide, and pumping out great leaders from their histroy) which are ranked among the best such as Peking Uni(China), NUS & NTU (spore), Tokyo Uni(Jpn), Hong Kong Uni to name a few. dunno abt most, but at least spore unis are taught in english. but it seems not many students see these schools as a choice.

maybe studying there as an option for some of Brunei's top brains can have a good impact for the country. especially their exposure to asian workaholic students and "business" mindset(esp the chinese). I think its about time, some Bruneian scholars are sent there to further their studies.

what do you think?

heh =)

Anonymous said...

I am one of those "no-brainer" Bruneians who have never earned any university degree at all - school of hard knocks and university of life graduate of sorts -(hehehh:) but it did cross my mind to go to Japanese unis like Sophia (private)or Keio (public) and Sorbonne in France. Of course, the National University of Singapore (NUS) should not be underestimated. Universiti Islam Antarabangsa (UIA) Malaysia is not a bad idea, actually. But I am glad that bright, young Bruneians now have wider options to either go to Malaysian; Australian; British and more recently American Ivy League unis!

I am anticipating that someone of Dear Rogue Economist's calibre (a world-class product of Universiti Brunei Darussalam) who is now finishing her doctoral thesis in a top notch university in the UK will one fine day become the very first woman minister in His Majesty's Cabinet!;)

Yeah right! That would go down in the blogosphere history as the Worst Understatement of the Year. No offence, RE!:)

In fact, I would love my eldest son in a few years' time to try to get a scholarship either to NUS or a top Mainland Chinese or Taiwanese university since he has studied Mandarin for the last 9 or 10 years in a Chinese school in Brunei, wan. Otherwise, he would have to try his luck to gain entry into any Ivy League unis in the US or Canada or better still a Gov't scholarship for him to study in Australia or the UK. Still a long shot ...

Anonymous said...

Dear Freakonomist,

Kudos for creating this blog while doing your PHD, I hope it will intrigue our bright economists to dialogue on the future of Brunei.

I share your view on Brunei's half hearted efforts or even sweet promises of diversification with various mega projects that have not materialised. You blamed the planning while I would ask the economic sense. Even BEDB's plans for our future lack imagination i.e. S-Park, PMB, I-Centre, and Business Park. Are these the initiatives that would spearhead us into the knowledge globalised economy? Could we compete with Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan on these fronts? I am sceptical that we could, but I do believe that we could succeed in diversifying our economy someday. We just need to think smarter or even establish an international economic council to advice us. Lets not just look at high value added, high skilled technology sectors, and be more creative in developing new sectors that are not yet available in the region. Do you have any thoughts on this?

Now we are facing unemployment, a depleting oil industry, a stagnant economy, etc. Many rich countries with natural resources had crumbled in the past. Only time will tell our tale..

baz said...

just look at dubai, they were nothin in 1990... sigh, but ofcourse every country should do it differently...