TAP

I was reading the news about TAP today and I couldn’t help doing a quick calculation on my own TAP. And I am worried. Because I don’t think I will have enough money to support myself, let alone to support my family, when I retire until I die.

With the current TAP contributions of 10 % (5%-employee & 5% employer), by the time I retire I will probably earn about $200K. Now, let’s say I live for another 20 years then my monthly retirement will be about $800. I have not taken factors such as inflation which will make the $800 have a lesser value, and Brunei-without-oil which will probably mean I need to spend more for my basic necessities such as medical care.

Oh dear. What should I do? Contribute more seems to be the suggestion.

But hang on, what about those who are earning less than me? What about those who have many children to support? Who, even now, are difficult to make ends meet. How can they possibly ‘voluntarily pay more’ in their contributions?

Anyway, I googled Singapore’s Central Provident Fund (click CPF for a quick summary) which is their TAP equivalence (but more superior). What I find very interesting is their principal behind their scheme:

Over the years, the success of the CPF scheme has depended on values such as self-reliance, good work ethos and family support. Besides encouraging self-reliance, the various schemes underscore the members’ responsibilities as parents, children and breadwinners. The values that the CPF both promote and rely upon include: Standing on one’s own two feet. Every CPF member is encouraged to work, even beyond his retirement age. The CPF savings will guarantee him a comfortable retirement. Even those with modest savings will have enough for basic needs. This self-reliance—funding one’s own retirement instead of relying on the future generation—is a vital element of the scheme.

I don’t know about you but the word ‘guarantee’ stands up. With their total of 30% contribution (10% employee, 20% employer) surely can make that happen. And reading further, there is a required minimum sum to be met, which at the moment is around $100K.

Now, I don’t mean to criticize and belittle anyone’s effort but we seriously need to review our TAP scheme. For a starter, I don’t see any harm in increasing the employer’s contribution. As for those who are working in SMEs, whose employers can’t make the increasing contribution, shouldn't they deserve a miniscule slice of oil income?


Salaam.

Are We THAT Thick?

After reading the Brunei Times’ piece on ‘Mobile Phones as a symbol of social standing’, the first thought that came to my mind was just how thick we Bruneians can be. In this holy month, I know I shouldn't be having any negative thought but I’m seriously frustrated! But I honestly lost my head when I read a 36-year old civil servant admitted that “his eyes are closed when he pays for a new phone”. O Dear! What is wrong with us?!

[Let me Breathe…]

I don’t know how these people can afford to constantly buy the latest phones. But I suspect credit, be it credit card or bank loan, is the main mode of payment.

Well, I came across an article in Slate that talked about the role of credits in our everyday lives. It was interesting the way it likened credit to a leverage i.e. power that allows you lift a heavy stuff. In this case, credits make everything appear so cheap. Or another way of seeing it, without credit, things look expensive.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not totally against credit cards or even personal loans. There are times, especially when we are travelling, credit cards will come in very handy. Or for when budget is tight and your freezer suddenly dies on you, then the personal loan that is being offered in the shops, can help save your life. But to use credits just to prove that you have a high salary or to have the latest mobile phone or camera that even can rival James Bond’s is beyond me! It’s even worse if you are buying a new phone at the expense of your child’s school fee.

In these last few days of Ramadhan, I can imagine the ‘eyes-turn-blind’ shopping frenzies are at their peaks in Brunei.

This can lead to a disaster, not only to the poor (or shall I call ‘thick’) person’s life but also to the health of the economy. In fact, I believe this is also another culprit that contributes to the increasing number of claims of being ‘poor’ in Brunei.

So I say, please…… whoever or whichever authority is looking into the credit policy in Brunei, to look into this seriously. It is high time we put a credit rating system in place. What I mean is that you can’t just allow any Tom, Dick and Harry that has a blue payslip enters into a credit contract without a thorough check on his financial background.

Everyday in the news, we hear about ‘credit crunch’ happening globally that has even put those giant corporations down on their knees and even collapse. It all started from careless and inappropriate lending. Anyway, it probably is still a foreign term in Brunei, so let’s keep it that way.

Selamat Menyambut Hari Raya Aidil Fitri. Spend Wisely!

Salaam.

Wawasan Brunei 2035 and National Development Plan 2007-2012

I have not read Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035) nor the new National Development Plan (Rancangan Kemajuan Negara - RKN), which for some reason was not called the ninth. Hence, I cannot really make a lot of comments on the contents of these 2 national books. For everyone’s benefits, there are 3 main objectives to achieve Brunei Vision 2035 and these are:

1) Brunei to be recognized as a highly educated and skilled people;
2) To have a quality of life among 10 top nations in the world; and
3) To be among the top 10 GDP per capita income nations in the world.

I have found some interesting reads regarding Wawasan 2035 including a presentation made by Dr Richard Leete at the Brunei Forum in Singapore and an article featured in the economist.

The most interesting paper I came across however was a paper by Brunei’s National Development Party which can be found here. The 17 page paper, written in malay, highlights a few weaknesses of the new RKN and gives some proposals for improvements. Among the key points are (pardon my poor translation):

1) The new RKN lacks a comprehensive planning structure: For instance it does not show the specific sectors to be developed and their projected contribution to the economic growth. It also does not address the demand and supply aspects of economic development which will give a more realistic picture;

2) The use of GDP per-capita as the measurement of quality of life will not give a true picture. The GDP per-capita is not a measure of income equality. A greater income equality will ensure a higher quality of life. The Plan however does not address the issue of income equality;

3) The lack of detailed data to support some of the strategy such as the reduction of foreign labour dependence;

4) The lack of strategies to achieve some of the human resource development objectives;

5) The Plan does not explain the method of the calculation of the multiplier effect, which will be used as the basis of project selection.

From my point of view, those points are valid, economically sound and definitely not some mere criticism. What they have raised in that paper are very important and should be taken seriously by the relevant policy-makers in ensuring the successful implementation of the current and any future RKN.

Salaam.

Are We Poor OR Are We Stupid?

It is sad to see and hear about the events happening in Brunei (i.e. the food clamouring and the coupon stampede) that have even result into human tragedy (courtesy to ranoadidas.com for always bringing the important news). It would be normal if it happened in a third world country, but for it to happen in Brunei, an oil-rich country, is quite extraordinary.

The question, as rightly put by Mr. Brunei Resources, is “What Happened to Bruneians?”

Now, there are 2 schools of thoughts. One says that it is simply because we are poorer and the other says we are too materialistic that we don’t even know how to differentiate between what is right and what is wrong i.e we are stupid.

Unfortunately, we can never truly find out until a proper income gap analysis is carried out. It is imperative that we know how many Bruneians are poor, how poor and why they are poor. Without such analysis, then we can never know and we will only end up having the rich blaming the poor (of being immoral and shameless) and the poor blaming the system (of unfairness).

While I do not doubt the existence of those who are genuinely poor, I also believe that the pool of poor people in Brunei is also largely made-up of those self-made poor, who are spending beyond their means. Regardless of how people become poor, we need to address poverty properly. There are 2 critical issues to tackle. One, how do we lift Bruneians off their existing poverty and two, how to keep the zero poverty (if it is ever achieved).

Now, if I were an economic advisor to Brunei, these are what I would suggest:

1. Get our statistics and figure right. We NEED to know our poverty statistics A.S.A.P.
2. If the finding (whether this is made public or otherwise) is that there are indeed a large number of poor people in Brunei, then we really need to review our economy. If people are poor because there is no job, then we need to pump-up the economy. This is THE time to make use of the oil-money.
3. Lifting people off poverty does not simply mean giving them money. We need to be creative in giving them the means to make money. True, this is easier said than done given the unfortunate attitude of some (most?) of Bruneians who more than many times do not see the rationale behind the self-aid help. But with proper monitoring and perhaps some taught management skill, I’m sure there will be some positive results. The key is for the relevant agency to NOT to give-up. Don’t let one bad apple ruins the whole basket.
4. It is time to differentiate the different types of goods available in the market. There are the luxurious and there are the normal ones. The problem in Brunei is that there are too many ‘high standard’ people who will not make do with just the normal goods and then there are also too many of us who always want to keep up with the Joneses. For many of these people, the euphoria of owning the latest mobile set or a branded watch has blinded their rational judgement and has reduced their mathematical ability to calculate their monthly balance to pre-kindy level. Therefore I believe the good old system of tax can somewhat alleviate this problem of euphoria-blindness. We need to tax (highly) the luxurious goods.
5. A credit monitoring system needs to be put in place. I cannot just go to any store and sign any credit agreement without a thorough check of my credit rating.
6. It is time to review the TAP contribution. There is a need to increase the contribution from the employees. We need to make sure Bruneians save for their own future. And of course, since Brunei coffer by now must have filled with a lot of oil money, I would also say that the government needs also to increase its contribution into TAP not only into the account of those in the public sector but also to Bruneians in the private sector. Afterall, the money is saved for the future. This contribution from the government I believe could be the key to reduce the remuneration gap between the public-private sectors. It would help increase the attractiveness of the private sector and would (hopefully) alleviate the problem of lazy Bruneians who would rather be unemployed than do manual job.
7. We need also to look at our system of income re-distribution. How do we re-distribute the income from the rich to the poor. While income tax may not be accepted in the near future, property tax certainly deserves some high level discussion now.
8. I don’t know how good our police force or those in the NCB are in combating drug wars, but I pray with all my heart for them to be really good.
9. Finally, I think too much subsidy make people too lazy.

Salaam.

Life After Oil

I was reading the post made by Brunei Resources on ‘Life Without Oil’. He suggested that Brunei should either decrease government spending and/or increase our tax base, which in economics term is what we call ‘contractionary fiscal policy’. This policy is usually applicable to an economy that has a budget surplus, which thanks to the soaring oil price, is actually the case for Brunei. But if you take the oil effect, Brunei’s budget will not be as handsome as it is today.

The effect of a contractionary fiscal policy will be a reduction in the aggregate demand which is not exactly the right prescription for a country that has little economic activities. Having said that however does not mean that the government should just spend all its income. It should be mindful of what it is it’s spending on. What we want is productive spending (and I agree with Mr. BR, this does not include subsidy). Spending that can stimulate the non-oil economy. And we want lots of this. Being a small economy (defined as having a small population) is not without its problem. And for that reason I personally think we need a strong government support (while it is still able) to help the economy as much as it can.

But the question of life after oil is still unanswered.

To answer this, we need Ricardian’s Theory of Comparative Advantage which says that we should produce and specialize in the production or services in which we have comparative advantage. What? You may ask. I say, look around us. We are so fortunate to have plenty of sun, land and sea, which I believe are extremely under-utilized. With a bit of hard work, I’m sure Brunei can develop its comparative advantage. If Singapore, an island that has an extremely limited natural resource can become one of the Asian’s dragons or Liechtenstein with a population of about 34,000 people and equally has a limited amount of natural resources can become one of the highly industrialising economies, then so can Brunei!

Life without oil will not be the end of the world as long as we do something about it. And we should start NOW. The current generation must help the future generation in the transition of oil to non-oil economy. Any ‘rentier’ habit has to be removed from the current system and the mindset of all Bruneians. With the right attitude, the right mind and the right policy Brunei could and should thrive. There must also be a strong will both from the government and the people and of course, some hard work too.

Salaam.

Big Salary, Enough Salary?

Today, thousands of teachers in the UK went on strike and as a result thousands of schools were closed, forcing millions of parents to look for alternative daycare for their children. Thankfully, my children's school didn't participate so school was normal for them.

Today was the teachers. Previously, the university lecturers, the postmen/women and the policemen/women also went on strike due to dispute over pay rise.

I'm thankful that no such incidence has ever happened in Brunei. I cannot imagine the reaction from our government :). But then the pay and perks in the government sector are higher compared to the private sector. Whether or not the current salary scales are appropriate (i.e. taking into account the inflation growth rates over the years) is however another question. I can see the dilemma our government would be facing if the current wage rates are found to be below the appropriate rates. If it raises the scale, it will further widen the public-private wage gap.

Don't take me wrong. I'm not asking for a pay rise. But I think it is unavoidable and equally necessary for some sort of study on the appropriateness of the current salary scale to be carried out especially in the light of poverty reduction. The results will not only be used to aid the poverty alleviation policy but will also be useful in other policies and most of all will be very, very interesting (at least to me!).

Salaam.

Moral Hazard

I'm quite pleased that someone brought the issue of moral hazard in my last post. Because to me it is precisely the reason why currently there is a debt of $15 million.

For those of you who do not know what moral hazard is, it is a 'behaviour' that occurs when someone KNOWS that he will not bear the full consequences of his action. (Notice my emphasis on 'knows'). So in the case of the housing debt we talked about in the last post, people are not paying simply because they know that there is nothing the government will do.

And this is also precisely the reason why we should have different sets of policies for different sets of people (and probably different sets of houses). At the moment, everybody (the poor, the rich and those in between) is paying the same amount of money with the same set of terms and conditions, which to me simply is not fair. And I also believe that this is the reason why any kind of enforcement is difficult because by 'punishing' one debtor entails the 'punishment' of ALL debtors, regardless of the economic status of the debtor. So, while sending a summon or court order or even confiscating the house of those debtors who are actually able to pay can be accepted as a just and a proper action, it is however morally unacceptable to do the same thing to those who are genuinely unable to pay.

Therefore I believe that my suggestion to write off the debts of those who are genuinely unable to pay i.e the poor and ONLY the poor, will not lead to moral hazard. The effectiveness however lies in the efficiency of the relevant agency to detect who is genuinely unable to pay and who is not and to be ready with the 'punishment' to those who are attempting deception.

Anyway, while the objective of providing a roof or a land for every Brunei household perhaps sounds simple, it does not necessarily mean that the policy needs also be simple (i.e. one policy, applies to all) which has proven that it is NOT simple at all. I believe nothing wrong with some creativity in policy-making as long as the objective is met.

There is a need for us to be clear with our national objectives; and every policy or every department or even every ministry must cater to each and every objective. From my humble observation presently this is not the case. Everyone seems to be trying to be a champion and meet its own objectives which most often do not tally with the national objectives. Oh well, what do I know? I'm just a student with loads of 'idealistic but not necessarily realistic' theories, ya?

Salaam.

Housing Debt

According to the Dep Perm Sec of the Ministry of Development, there is a $15 million outstanding loans for the National Housing Scheme and Skim Tanah Kurnia Rakyat Jati, and this if repaid can help build an additional 100 houses of class E plus infrastructure (see here). In other countries, housing loan arrears can result in homelessness (i.e you'll be kicked out of the house!) but NOT in Brunei.

*Tsk*tsk* Shame on You! Ungrateful Bruneians..!

But then I said to myself, $15 million? Only?! The last I checked, Brunei’s GDP was $15.9 billion in 2005. If you think about it, that’s only about 0.09 per cent! As much as I want to condemn this act or irresponsibility, I am sure there are many cases of genuine inability to pay. In the spirit of eradicating poverty in Brunei, what is the possibility of writing-off some of those debts? Especially to the poor, actually ONLY to the poor.

At this stage, I’m sure some of you would say “NO Can Do!” because that’s what my husband just said : ). I do, of course share his fear that the moment you give something ‘free to the poor’ then everyone will claim that he/she is poor. But then I said, I can also claim I am the Queen of Sheba and I am sure no one would believe me unless I can produce some evidence. So, for a person to claim he/she is poor, he/she needs to produce the evidence including declaring his/her lack of wealth and property.

Now, you ask, what about those who have children who can bail out their parents? You see, I think we assume too much. I ask, what makes we think that the children are willing and able to do just that? And for this reason, I believe we must have a system that ensures that the payment of the house is the sole responsibility of the buyer (i.e. NOT his children Nor his guarantors).

OK, what I’m trying to say is that Brunei needs to review its housing schemes. I think we simply cannot have a “one shoe, fits all” policy. Clearly, those who are unfortunate and less-able should have a different set of terms and conditions and prices. On the other hand, we need to tighten the conditions to those who are able, ensuring that they WILL pay (including a mandatory insurance that covers death).

Nevertheless, at the end of the day I cannot help but think that it is actually up to the individual to uphold his/her responsibility. At this stage however, I am really sorry that Brunei is unfortunate to have many irresponsible, dishonest and selfish people.

Salaam.

Poverty, again.

While reading an article in the BT on poverty in Brunei, I was thinking, how sad the reality is. It is almost unbelievable that there is extreme poverty in a country so rich (the lives of those in the article are examples of extreme or absolute poverty, and if it is indeed true that there are families earning only about $12 per day, gosh! that's defined as $1/day poverty! ). It is true that Brunei's GDP per capita has doubled within a decade but that unfortunately does not mean the income is more equally distributed.

So, how bad is the poverty in Brunei? Another article (click here), can give the picture. I cringed when I found out that there are 16,186 poor people = 3,747 families! Based on that statistic (the number of zakat recipients), about 4.3 % of Brunei's population therefore falls under the poverty line. And if my calculation is correct, each person is receiving $46 per month from the zakat fund. So a family of 8 (such as Hj Dullah in Kg. Tamoi) will receive $368 a month.

An easy and straight-forward solution to help Hj Dullah would be to give him a boat so he can operate his own water taxi. However, a few years ago, somebody mentioned that this type of aid (i.e. giving boats to Kampong Ayer's poor) actually backfired. The recipients who were supposed to earn a living with the boats, ended up selling the boats for an easy lump-sum money. I must admit, this puts a pressure on policy-makers. To give or not to give? How can we prevent such incidence from happening again? But I also believe, we can't simply just NOT give based on bad past experience.

Nevertheless I find this really is a challenge. While there are many ways to reduce poverty, I however cannot think of any policy measure that can solve the human attitude problem: the ungratefulness and the lack of responsibility that seem to exist rampantly in Brunei.
I often ask, what did we do wrong? But remember this:

“…Surely Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change their own condition…” (Qur’an 13:11).

Salaam.

Leg Co: ..On POVERTY

I'm surprised, well actually not surprised that the issue of poverty was not heavily debated, despite HM's titah on the vision of zero poverty. Honestly, I feel really sad to hear that this issue will be tackled by yet ANOTHER poverty research. I mean, seriously... how much research do we need to prove that there ARE poor people in this rich country! And what is wrong with the research made by the UBD? Do we need to waste 3, 4, 5 more years and spend millions just to prove that there is no poverty in Brunei? I've heard about this poverty research like almost 10 years ago (if I remember, it was the year I started my first job) and until today I have not seen any national poverty-related policies besides the MUIB's zakat payment. And if there are recipients of Zakat, then surely there must be poverty..what more proof do we need?

People talk about absolute poverty vs relative poverty. For those who are not familiar with those terms, 'absolute poverty' is basically the number of people or households who cannot afford certain basic goods and services, while 'relative poverty' refers to the number of households (or families if you like) whose income falls below the national average income. So, a family of 6, earning only about $1200 a month definitely falls under the category of 'relative poverty'. They may probably able to buy the basic necessities with that income but that income surely must be below our median income.

If you ask me, I don't know what our median income is, but I suspect for a rich country like us, it should be quite high. So, my question is do we really need another research just to determine our median income? Or should we put our heads together to combat poverty NOW before it gets worse. I feel what Brunei needs actually is to form a serious national committee to address this issue.

Anyway, I don't know about you, but to me poverty issue shouldn't be under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Culture Youth and Sports alone or poverty is not all about giving welfare benefits. It needs to be addressed in a holistic manner. The fundamental issue is the gap between the rich and the poor. An increasing relative poverty means that there is an unequal distribution of income i.e. there is a large gap between the rich and the poor. Therefore our main challenge is to reduce this gap, because to me income equality = zero poverty.

This should be debated. The ways and means to reduce the gap. It is not about getting salary increments (because to me that in itself will actually result in a higher gap. Why? Because not all of the poors are employed in the government sector) it is more about formulating policies that specifically deal with the poors. For example, the national housing scheme. There should be a separate policy or separate queue (if you are trying to picture it in your head) for those who fall under the category of 'relative poverty' with its own separate terms and conditions, and prices (or no price at all!)

What about subsidies and taxes? These have been the traditional means of income redistribution. Surely, it is high time Brunei reviews its subsidies. Should those who are earning above the median income level pay the same subsidised price of rice as those earning below the median income? Now, there seems to be a serious talk about the irresponsibility of our people (who presumably think that electricity and water are their God's given rights and think that electricity probably comes from air) in paying the utility bills which is costly to the government (see here). If our people continue to be thick-headed and the government decides to reduce the various utility subsidies, then what about the poors? Now, taxes....well this is THE number one taboo in Brunei. But let's start with some form of property taxes. Number 1: tax on rental properties (to help finance the national housing scheme for the poors).

And then there is the related issue of unemployment. I wrote about this in the last post. I don't know how to further express myself but this issue NEEDS to be addressed properly. If the government can no longer afford to provide full employments in the public sector, then whether we like it or not, the government needs to do something about the wage gap because unemployment can cause poverty.

What about education? Yes, we do have the 12 year education policy, but my question is does this cover EVERYone? I'm thinking about those teenagers who got pregnant/married before they finish their 12 year education. How can we help them? How do we expect them to provide for their children if they don't have enough education. Won't it contribute to the poverty spiral?

There are more to think of! Such as how do we help the poors get out of their poverty condition? You know more in the lines of Give-a-man-a-fish-and-you-feed-him-for-a-day, Teach-a-man-to-fish-you-feed-him-a-lifetime.

Oh dear, it's almost midnight. I was supposed to have a break from 'thinking' today after submitting a chapter to my supervisor :) Anyway, the whole point of this post is to actually implore the relevant government agencies to STOP wasting time and resources 'wondering' whether or not we have poverty. Whatever poverty we have now, I think should still be manageable. So please don't wait until it gets too late.

Salaam.

Leg Co: ..On Unemployment

I don't know whether to laugh or to cry when I read the reports (in the newspapers here and here and here) of the Leg Co Session today. It was quite disappointing really because there was nothing new. One minister asked the private sector to hire the locals, while the other asked the locals to work in the private sector. I have no problem with both suggestions. But I fail to understand why no minister was addressing the root of the problem, which to me is the remuneration gap in the public and the private sector.

The gap is huge! To know someone in the public sector, who has the same exact qualification with the same skill, is paid triple the amount one is getting in a private sector is really demotivating to anyone. I don't know about you but seriously somebody has to address this issue. As I said in my previous post it is not enough (and equally unfair) to ask the private sector raising their pay rate to the locals due to several reasons. First, our private sector consists largely of SMEs. Second, our SMEs are weak as highlighted by the Minister of the MIPR. And third, the productivity and the commitment of our locals are not exactly commendable.

Now, in my humble opinion it is inevitable and imperative for the government to intervene. Either reduce the remuneration scale in the public sector and/or prop up the remuneration in the private sector. My preference goes to the latter as I believe it would have a larger multiplier effect to the economy. Perhaps take this idea as some sort of 'employment' benefit as opposed to the 'unemployment' benefit. If you are thinking, more government spending and where can we get the fund to do this? Now, I think there is even a stronger need for the government to review the subsidy (especially the fuel subsidy :) Plus, I also think that the government would actually save by spending only some fraction supporting locals who work in the private sector as opposed to employing these locals in the public sector. And of course the direct effect it has on the private sector itself (as compared to the reduction of the corporate tax! No, I'm not going to make any comment on this one) It's a Win, Win situation, No?

With regards to the mind-set problem and the attitude of our local workers, I think the issue is not exclusive to the private sector. I'm sorry..but look at out public sector's employees! I honestly wonder how can you expect the locals to be in their best behaviour in the private sector which pays considerably less when those in the public sector are having the time of their lives and being paid more. And that is why I also think it is equally imperative for the public sector to practice a more realistic productivity-linked wage system.

Oh Well, I'm just in my own world and who am I to say. I don't even know why I'm racking my brain for this.

Salaam

Wish List

In light of the current Leg Co Session, below are my 'wish list' of topics that I hope the distinguished Yang Berhormats are debating:

1. Unemployment: This has been a main issue since 10 years ago which I feel has not been properly addressed with only some 'piecemeal' solutions thrown from different departments without any coordination. The demand as well as the supply sides of the issue have to be debated. The issues involving the unemployment include:
i)The conflict between local vs. foreign workers: which to a certain extent related to the attitude of local workers.
ii)The remuneration gap: And NO I don't want to hear the same proposal where the employer (the private sector) is asked to give higher wages. That, to me is NOT a solution. What can the government DO to reduce this gap?
iii)The attitude of local workers: A serious lack of commitment.
iv) The welfare and rights of workers: What more can I say?
v) The rights of employers: While employees can lodge their complaints to the Labour Department, where can employers go?
vi) The availability of jobs. Can the private sector provides 'enough' jobs?
vii) Working age: The merits/demerits of extending the pension age.
viii) Job trainings/ skills etc.

2. Social illnesses: Drugs, school-dropouts, teenage pregnancy etc. These are just at the top of my head.

3. Poverty: I cannot stress any further. His Majesty's vision of 0% poverty needs to be addressed properly. The issues related to poverty include:
i) Establishing a national poverty line - in order to measure the gap between the rich and the poor and just HOW poor are we?
ii)To go beyond the solution of providing just 'monetary assistance'.
iii) To combat social illnesses which are very much related with poverty.
iv) To review some fiscal measures i.e. tax and subsidy as the traditional means of redistributing income.

4. Last but certainly NOT the least, BRUNEI's Future:
i) After Oil....What?
ii) Oil Fund to provide for the future. If BIA is doing this, where DO we stand at the moment? How secure is our future? How long can the fund sustain Brunei in the event oil runs dry (This can happen, No?)
iii) Pension schemes: Is TAP enough? How can we eradicate poverty if there is not enough money to provide for the daily expenses, once out of work. What is the merit/demerit of re-introducing a (NOT SO LAVISH) pension scheme. What is the possibility for the 'employer' to increase its contribution. BUT bearing in mind the capability of the current 'weak' private sector. How can the government assist the local workers in the private sector in the provision of a secure future.
iv) What about some form of a National Insurance for every working Bruneian? What happens if accidents occur, death etc?

Oh the list goes on!
But then these are just a mommy's wish..and we'll see how the session goes.

Salaam.

Spoilt and Shameless

My blood boils when I read Mr BR's post on What Would Superman Do?. Not because I am angry at him but because I deeply share his sentiment. I still cannot fathom why our people can be so irresponsible, shameless and so selfish. It makes me so sad to think that after 24 years of independence, we are still unable to stand on our own 2 feet and still need the government to do basically everything for us! I call it the Third World Mentality. You know why? In the developed countries, people are so independent. Their self dignity and pride are strong. They don't ask for help easily because they take pride in what they do. Often you see people in wheel-chairs and people who are pysically less fortunate are doing what normal people do and as efficient. We have a lady - an undergraduate students' secretary- in our department who has lost 1 leg. One day, I was looking for a printer cartridge and it was in the last drawer of a file cabinet. Instead of telling me where it was, she went to the cabinet, with her crutches, and bended down to get the cartridge. I was surprise! I quickly went to her and obviously offered my help and you know what she said with her smiling face, "It's OK...Thank you...". Gosh!

Now, look at our people! God has given each one of us a brain, 2 arms and 2 legs, and WHY oh WHY are we acting like some helpless creatures in this world? Where is our self dignity ? Before I read Mr BR's post (I suggest you read it too!) I was discussing with my husband regarding the irresponsibility of our people. Someone we know who has been fortunate enough to get one of the houses in the Rimba Housing, apparently has not been paying the government. Both husband and wife are working with only 1 child to support. Furthermore, they have a rental house somewhere in Brunei which is being rented. I mean WHAT are they thinking?! What is worse, because of their irresponsibility and their selfish act (please see my previous post on this), the person who acts as their guarantor is now being burdened. The last we heard, the poor guarantor had received a few warning letters. AND these sad (good-for-nothing) couple just duh! I believe this is NOT an isolated case because a couple of years back, during a dinner at the Istana, I was fortunate or rather unfortunate to hear the gruesome tales of our people not paying their debt, have mountains of debt and on and on from officers from various government departments.

And we are not only talking about housing payments (which is a major issue) but also on things as mundane as paying the rent for wedding clothes (baju pengantin). Just a few days ago, my sister who is about to have her baby shower (Mandi Berlawat) told me that she was shocked that her i.c was being asked by the shop from which she is renting her baju. Simply because the shop assistant told her that there have been MANY cases where people just don't bother to pay and obviously never return the attires. GOD!

What is WRONG with us, people? I am really-really sad. For a Muslim and a wealthy country and not to mention a caring government, what MORE do we want? Honestly, I have a headache thinking about this..and I think I better stop here before I develop a migraine.

Mr BR was nice (presumably subtle) to title his post as 'What Would Superman Do' because I don't think we need a superman, as it will make matters even worse, what we need and deserve is for someone to give us a hard KICK in the b*tt.

Salaam.

The End of Cheap Driving

When I read today’s Brunei Times, 2 things came to my mind. One, suddenly Bruneians are creative in their policy-makings and two, could this be the end of cheap car driving in Brunei?

First, it was the reduction in the fuel subsidy and now it’s the (possible) introduction of some sort of congestion charge. Although the 2 policies will affect the usage of cars, the way I see it however, they are not related to one another (which again show the lack of coordination among ministries). The objective of the first is more or less to reduce government expenditure while the second is simply to reduce congestion. While I agree with the former policy, I am quite unsure about the latter.

Well, firstly I think the timing is not quite right. I wouldn’t be surprised if people in Brunei would react negatively if the 2 policies were to be implemented at the same time. Secondly, I question whether congestion fee really is the most effective way to alleviate the congestion problem. Why? Well for one thing the traffic is only worse at certain time of the day, which is when schools end. So, why not introduce an effective school transportation? A subsidised privatised service if you will. It will not only help reduce congestion during the peak hours but also help increase employment and will surely push up the transportation industry.

By levying some congestion fee, to me does more harm than good. First, the fee doesn’t care who you are and what you do in the area. This may have negative effects not only on the business activities in the area, the local environment but also on the income distributional factor (i.e. whether you are rich or poor, you will be charged equally!). Secondly, I think the implementation and the enforcement of the system will be quite costly and complex and that leads to the question, is it worth it to devote our limited resources into checking cars which do not pay the congestion fee just because the drivers (parents) are collecting the children from school?

Now, because Brunei is quite unique (read ‘rich’) where the ratio of car to people is 2:1 then why not simply introduce some sort of progressive tax. For example, you tax each additional car a person buys (the first car would be tax free of course). This I believe, would also have a distributional effect. Richer people (who buy lots of cars) will be taxed more. The revenue can then be used to improve the roads and the road system.

Oh well, I don’t know. What I can say for now is that I am not keen with the proposed congestion charge. I personally think, it is not the right time. I also implore, please… let there be some sort of coordination among the ministries and departments. Get the same objectives with more synchronised policies.

Salaam.

The Dilemma of Teenage Pregnancies

I was reading an article in Slate regarding the declining rate of abortion in the US. There were a number of factors involved of course, including voluntary prevention through birth control schemes nevertheless, the debate continues (on legalising abortion). Interestingly however, it was reported that more and more Americans are now campaigning not against abortion, but against 'teen sex'.

Now, for a Muslim country, therein lies the dilemma. Sex education, to give or not to give? By giving sex education at schools, we're seen as conforming to the act (of pre-marital sex) which is forbidden in Islam. By not giving it, we are faced with social illnesses: abortion, sexual transmited diseases, (unwed) teenage pregnancies and worse of all, abandoning or killing innocent babies.

Whether we like it or not, we can't just turn blind eyes to the increasing trend of 'teen sex' in Brunei. No data, however is available to support this but from my conversations with a couple of doctors in Brunei confirms that the trend is worsening. I once asked one of my doctor friends, why is there no collaboration between the Health Ministry and the Ministry of the Religious Affairs (MRA). At that time, I thought by informing the MRA, at least the problems associated with 'single (teenage) parents' could be prevented and let the teens be responsible with their acts. And she replied that if they were to inform the MRA everytime an unwedded teen got pregnant or delivered a baby, then the worst might happened. How so? The pregnant teens (who were already scared) now would not have any place to go. What is feared that more and more illegal abortion would take place which would be harmful to the pregnant teens and worse, more and more innocent babies would be left abandoned. Even as it is, according to her, these pregnant girls only went to seek medical help at a later stage of their pregnancies which were often not without complications.

Even if the teens seek an early help, it may also not help solve the problems. Once they are found pregnant, obviously the morally right thing to do is to marry them off. But their future could also end there. They have to quit school. Without proper education and qualification, how do we expect them to lead a high quality life? How do we even expect them to provide for their children?

Now, back to sex education. I guess, to preach through the morals of religion alone is no longer sufficient. What is needed I think is a good and open communication between the teenagers and the educator (including you and me). The more these young people have their questions answered regarding contraception, relationships, sexual health and the responsibility of being a parent, I think will help them to make the decision in delaying any sexual relationship and hopefully to get to do the right thing of 'sex after marriage'.

No matter how and what approach we want to use, please let there be one. Pregnancies among the teens not only affect their lives but also affect the nation as a whole, especially for a country where human resource is valuable. If you read my previous post, unwanted teenage pregnancies could lead to a vicious circle which could lead to poverty and thus affecting the healthy development of the nation. It is a tough challenge of course, but somebody HAS to do it.

Salaam.

Ain't No My Business!

I must admit I was quite disheartened by comments made by some people who spoke to me and emailed me regarding my view on the fuel subsidy as well as my view on Bruneians’ lavish lifestyles. I however cannot help think how hypocrite these people are. Before this, they all wanted change. Brunei should do this, this, this and that. When the time to change is finally there, then they thought otherwise. So, tell me, what do YOU want? How do you expect the economy to change? By fate? When oil runs dry? Since there are so many of you who are clever enough to change the economy, then why aren’t we changing? Why is the GDP structure still the same since aeons?

Some said, so what if people drive big cars and buy expensive goods. Why should they think of tomorrow when they can enjoy today? And most of all it is none of MY bloody business to tell off people what and how to spend their income!

AND these are my answers to you:

Firstly, YES it is none of my concern what you people do with your money. It is YOUR life. BUT please stop complaining. You are the very people who keep on moaning that life is unfair. You are the first people who would object to real changes. If you think your future and that of your children’s are in good hands, then why should it bother you that the fuel subsidy will be lifted, or even if one day income tax will be imposed?

Secondly, it is clear you are missing my point. Nobody says that Bruneians should live shabbily or eat ‘nasi dengan kicap’. By all means, for those who think they can afford luxurious livestyles, then who’s stopping? If you must know, it is also equally harmful to the economy if nobody is spending (like what happened to Japan). My message is meant specifically to those who cannot afford such a lifestyle. Ukur baju di badan sendiri as the saying goes. Not everyone has a 4-digit monthly income, you know! And I have also seen many of those who are earning decent monthly incomes, who work as senior officers in government departments, cannot even pay their children’s school fees! WHY? Simply because they value their NOWS.

My aunt, who is a headmistress in one of a well known private primary school, told me that they were having a dilemma. She told me that there were HUNDREDS of parents who could not pay the school fees. She said she would understand if they worked in the private sector but these parents were government officers! I asked her what about the government’s education subsidy i.e. the monthly payment of what $120 per child (please correct me if I’m wrong)? Where did the money go? She said probably to ‘the car’, because apparently some parents bought new cars a few weeks before the fee was due. She said it was heart-breaking to make the decision of expelling children from school, just because their parents think cars are more important in their life. As much as the school wants to help the children, at the end of the day my aunt says, “it is not a charity”.


But, think of the consequences. It is not only the child who will be affected by such selfish act. The whole nation will do too! Now, I’m not going to put forward the argument that if you think you can’t afford to pay the private school’s fee, then the children should be sent to the government schools (while education is still free!), because as a parent myself, I know that I want the BEST for my children. But, please I implore, PAY their fees! And I'm also NOT patronising the quality of the government's schools. I am, after all, a product of one. (Hmm.. perhaps another blog entry for this topic).

Now, again back to the fuel subsidy. I ask myself, is it really fair for the government to reduce the subsidy now? When prices of goods are on the rise? When everyone is feeling the heat? When, even the global economy looks gloomy?

Well, my answer is still YES. My views still stand. I still think it is still a waste for the government to spend more and more to subsidise the prices of car fuel. As the oil price goes up, the amount of subsidy will also go up. I strongly agree with the comment made by 55 in my last post. If and when the subsidy (of any kind) is reduced, then some sort of concession system must be set up to help those who truly deserve the subsidy. Subsidy in economics is after all, an instrument to distribute income equally. It is NOT meant for everyone. Those who are earning above a certain level (usually above the minimum) let alone those who have hefty incomes, do not deserve to receive such subsidy especially when no income tax is imposed.

Finally, my profession is related with policy-making. So, I believe all of the problems associated with the economy, WILL be my concern.

Anyway, I think I understand that the resistance to the policy change is not caused simply by people not wanting to change (right?). I guess, the problem is related with what economists say as 'asymmetric information'. The public do not know what to expect. Are there any supporting policies to help remedy the situation which is expected to have negative effects? And which government agencies will be responsible in providing the supporting policies? How big is this subsidy reduction? And so on. I myself, am anxious to find the answers. I think it would be ridiculous if no one is doing anything to help mitigate the effects.

I guess that's all I will say for now. In any case, this blog is meant for those who are interested in economics and its workings without the boring mathematical equations. As I said in my first post, my views may be right, but most often they will probably be wrong.

Salaam.

Aren't We a Flashing Nation?

It was quite amusing to find the news in Brudirect today. The first main news was about the raid in the hotel, the second was about religious school adopting a system of something, the third was about another irresponsible Bruneian and look! the fourth main news was the announcement of the open tender for 2-digit license plate..Wow! LOL

This, to me just shows how 'flashing' the Bruneians are. The shorter and the smaller your car plate numbers, the more 'VIP' you are. So, people (hoping to be VIPs) are willing to pay loads just to get their so called 'favourite or lucky' numbers. Baah!

I'm actually quite sad that this is the lifestyle adopted by a great number of Bruneians. Big (and expensive) flashy cars. The latest mobile phones. The last time they played golf (which would always be the last weekend). The biggest flat screen tvs. The most beads (manik) on the baju kurung (haha). And the list goes on. It is like people seem to think that they are judged by what they use or wear. (Maybe some people do actually judge by those criteria. What a pity!).

To tell you the truth, it is really quite uncomfortable to be around these types of people (who are almost everywhere in Brunei). Especially if your mobile phone is about 2 years old, you wear just a baju kurung, your car is just another Toyota and you don't play golf!. At the same time however it is also very irritating when all they talk about are the latest mobile phones or their handicap (what?! handicap?! are they 'special' or something?) or the latest car they just bought. Wow! The world must be perfect for these people despite the fact that their latest credit card bills would probably be almost reaching the limit, the headmasters of their children's schools are scratching their heads waiting for the school fee payments (which I can tell you LOADS!) and their disposable income is probably less than 30% of their gross income. Worse, there is no saving for their children's future!

And sadly, it is not only me who is pitying our fellow Bruneians, the foreigners too. When we went back to Brunei sometime last year, we (my hubby and I) decided that it was time to replace our ageing mobile phones (the girl gave me a sly smile when I asked if I could use 3G with that phone. Haha THAT old!). So while the Filipino lady was preparing our phones I asked her how many people buy phones each day. And she said 'quite many'. And I asked her, 'paid by cash or using one of those installments offered by the banks i.e. hutang lah?'. And she gave me this smile (that translates 'are you kidding? cash?). And I asked how many? She said 'quite many'. Then she said she didn't understand why people wanted to put themselves into debt just for a mobile phone. I said, don't let your boss hear you saying that..hahaha.

A couple of times, I must admit my husband and I were thinking of buying one of those luxurious cars. Why not? We can afford it, can't we?

Well..after 1 night sleep we scratched off that thought. Why? First, a car is NOT an asset, it is a LIABILITY..the first 2 years of driving..wow..fantastic...but then...after that...I'm sure many of you would love to share the cost of maintaining such cars. Second, we haven't got a house of our own. Until we do..then we say FORGET it!. Finally, there's our children's education funds. If our children are brilliant then, perhaps some scholarships would be granted. But you never know what will happen in the future.

I'm actually quite worried that this kind of 'rich and flashy' lifestyle is adopted not only by the middle-income earners but also the lower-income earners. The desire to have luxurious items is probably the main culprit why many Bruneians have become 'poor'. If you were to measure the level of poverty based on the disposable income, I am sure it will be staggering. How to amend this? A simple answer from an economist would probably through the good old tax. But I'm sure nobody wants that (and I am also risking my neck suggesting it hahaha!). But I think some kind of awareness campaign against debt should be introduced where the message has to be strong and the campaign done rigorously.

Oh well..it's a beautiful Sunday morning here in England and we need to do some grocery shopping. My only hope (more of a wishful thinking) is that Bruneians will change. I'd honestly hate to come back to the same 'flashy' nation.

Salaam.

Should the Government Pay People to Lose Weight?

Interesting question ya? I’m sure many of you would say ‘No Way! Why should the government spend money to get people to slim down. Well, I ask ‘Why shouldn’t we?’

First of all, we economists believe in incentives. Many studies find that financial incentives, when they are directly linked to the achievement of goals, can be remarkably effective in getting people to change their behaviour. Now, consider these (scary) facts and figures from the Health Minister:

- 1 in 3 of our youth is overweight;
- Twelve per cent of the population in Brunei suffer from diabetes equivalent to 45,000;
- Nearly 50 per cent of patients who undergo dialysis are diabetics;
- The cost of haemodialysis per patient per year is around B$20,000;
- The cost of peritoneal dialysis per patient per year is around B$37,000;
- Forty-four limb amputations performed from Nov 2006 to Oct 2007.

All of the above are costs to the government. Not only do they burn a big hole in the government’s coffer, a nation with an obese population is not exactly the right ingredient to a healthy and productive country.

Now, the incentives must be designed cost-effectively i.e. you only pay people when they reach their target weight. The pay doesn’t even have to be massive. The way I see it, the government spend a little in order to save a lot (in the long run). Of course many will criticize that once the money runs out (or once people reach their target) then they may relapse. Yes, maybe for some people. But I am also sure that for some other, they would definitely want to maintain their slim figure. It’s a simple win-win situation.


Anyway, I’m off to the City that Never Sleeps tomorrow for our annual family vacation (Can’t Wait. Am Soooooo Excited). I guess I will see you when I return :)


NEW YORK CITY, Here We Come……………..!


Salaam.

Life in the UK Part 1

Living in the UK, has taught me 1 great thing in life. And that is NOT to be dependent on an amah.

I often said to my husband, I admire the British mommies (well at least those moms who send their children to the same school as our children's). They would drive to the school (for some - they even walk), sending and picking up their children, often with another (and sometimes 2!) small baby in arms. Every morning and afternoon, they would park their car, get a baby trolley out of the car, get a baby out of the car, and walk into the school to get their children. And each of their children that goes to school, has a packed lunch.I mean, that is what I call 'bekarih!'. I tell you, it is not easy!

In Brunei, the thought of not having an amah is almost 'unthinkable'. The parents seem to avoid the 'stressfulness' of being parents. Nobody wants to hear their children crying, wailing, arguing. When a child cries, give to 'bibi'. When a child wants something, get from 'bibi'. When a child does something wrong, blame 'bibi'!

I remember when we first told our friends and families, our decision not to bring an amah. Everyone was giving us the 'look'. You know the look that says 'Are you sure? Can you cope? Hooowww??'. Even today, everyone we met in Brunei was asking how we could have survived, studying and raising 2 kids, without the help of an amah.I must say, at the beginning I was quite worried myself. I wasn't so sure how I could cope, being a full time mommy and at the same time doing my research, which demands a lot of time and effort.

Well the secret is job-sharing, or the economics term for it is 'division of labour'. We share, my husband and I, the house work; I cook and do laundry, while the hubby does the dish-washing and vacuuming. We take turn doing our kids' homework and reading them to sleep. As a result we get to spend a lot of time with each other. We both know what our children 'likes' and 'dislikes'. We get to watch what they eat, play, programmes they watch on tv etc. And as for the children, they get to become more independent. For example, my 4-year old makes up her own bed every morning (and really neat! you wouldn't expect it's the doing of a 4-year old!), my 5-year old helps her sister wear her clothes, teaches her to read; and both of them take their plates and cups to the kitchen (which made everyone in Brunei cried in delight when they saw what they did hehe). As for our relationship (the hubby and I), we get to communicate better. We solve any problem together and we respect each other even more.

Sadly, I think this doesn't happen to many families (that I know of) in Brunei. In the morning, mom and dad go to work. Often separately. A driver will send the children to (and from) school. Mum and dad don't go back home for lunch (they also lunch separately). Mum and dad come back home in the evening, exhausted. Children go to tuition schools. Children come home, exhausted. Children sleep. Mom and dad sleep. I have seen parents who only want to spend time with their children after their children are fed, bathed and happy. I have also seen parents who think that the main role of parenting is spoiling their children with money and toys. And worse, I also see parents who spend 10% or maybe even less, of their waking hours with their children.

For most parents in Brunei, their amahs know better about their children then they do. And as a result the parents-children relation become distant. Often, when something is wrong, parents would blame their amahs, expecting them to do a fantastic job of two parents with a mere salary of $250 a month. On the other hand, the high dependence on amah, has made many employers turn blind eyes to their amah's wrong-doings. The thought of their 'beloved' amah who runs the whole family, going home, is crazy. Somehow, people can't or don't want to function normally without an amah. Amah going for their contract leave IS a big deal for many people. It disrupts life and can also affect the running of an entire work organisation, where people take 'emergency' leaves.

I don't know about you but this type of 'chronic' dependence on an amah, to me, not only can it affect the economy but it can also lead to social problem. Family value is lost, communication breaks down and people become lazy (just look at our youths!).

Surely there must be something that the government can do to remedy the situation. Maybe flexibility in terms of working hours can be introduced. Day-care centres perhaps can be provided in work-places. If other countries can run smoothly without their people needing and depending of an amah, WHY CAN't we? Now, I'm not suggesting that we should ban amah (that would certainly have a catastrophic effect on the lives of Brunei people and could also have a political effect as well!), but some measures should be introduced.

Well, maybe I'm being too paranoid. Maybe I'm too wrapped-up in my own world that I don't think normally, the way Bruneians think. But I would love to hire day cleaners to clean my house and babysitters to look after my children when I go out. Hey, we could create jobs!

Anyway, the point is I don't think I need a stranger to live 24/7 in my house. This is MY family. And what can be more important than one's own family?

Salaam.

Addendum 20 Nov 07:

To be fair, I am not against people having amahs and neither do I think all amahs are bad. There were many times how I wished I had one, to help me around especially during hectic times. But please don't be TOO dependent on one. A line should be drawn between someone who is helping with the house-chores (them) and someone who is running the family (you, mom and dad). Salaam..