Showing posts with label dilemma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dilemma. Show all posts

Thursday, 23 April 2009

Dewasa Bernegara Part 1

I’ve been back for more than 4 months but I still cannot accept how Bruneians, especially parents, actually live. They don’t seem to value their lives and their children’s. I’m referring to the use of safety belts in the cars of course. Everyday, everywhere I see children jumping up and down in the passenger seats. What is worse, I always see parents who actually drive with a child on his/her lap. Once, I actually saw a car swerved in the middle of a road and when I looked at the driver, it was a man holding a crying BABY!

It looks like the law on child-seat and safety belts fall on deaf ears.

Some people blame it on the implementation of the regulations. They say the police are not doing anything about it so why should we. I say: when accidents happen, those policemen won’t lose their lives but you and your children will.

Some people say the child-seat is expensive. I say: more expensive than the lives of your children?

Some other people say their children refuse to sit in the child-seat and/or wear safety-belts. Since they don’t want to upset their children then let them do as they wish. I say: You don’t love your children!

I’m ashamed and saddened by the way we Bruneians see and live life. After 25 years of independence, do we deserve to be called ‘Dewasa Bernegara’ when we do not even want to be responsible for our own lives and that of our children? When we still need other people to look after our lives? When we still embrace the old-skool mentality of law-breakers as opposed to law-abiders?

Oh dear.

Salaam.

Monday, 17 November 2008

Melayu Mudah Lupa

Our Malaysian friends held a farewell dinner for us last night. After the delicious beriyani and rendang, as usual we talked and discussed about the current issues. Last night’s discussion was interesting as it revolved around the ‘malay dilemma’ topic. At the moment, as you and I know, the racial tension in Malaysia is quite pronounced.

There were two camps last night. One opinion was that it is the malays’ right to be given the privileges given the fact that it is the malay land and therefore, the non-malays should not have any right to demand what is not rightfully theirs. And the success of the non-malays is seen as the result of some ‘conspiracy’ against the malays which include the policies that seem to be in favour of the non-malays or rather disfavour the malays.

Another opinion however believes that it is actually the malays themselves who are not utilising the privileges and opportunities that are given to them to their great advantage. The fact is ‘Melayu Mudah Lupa’ (Malay Forget Easily – the title of Mahathir’s book). We forget why we are given those privileges. Believing that they are our rights, we don’t value them anymore. As a result, we don’t work as hard as the non-malays (who have to survive) and the non-malays have emerged to be more successful, cleverer and wealthier.

And for this reason, we believe that there should exist a healthy competitive environment for the malays to prove that they are as good as or in fact better than the non-malays.

In Brunei, Alhamdulillah, we still live harmoniously together. Partly I believe is due to our small population and partly due to our ideology of ‘Melayu Islam Beraja’ (Malay, Islamic, Monarchy). As a result, the competition between the malay and the non-malay in Brunei is less severe or almost non-existent. This however does not mean that the Brunei malay is immune from the symptom of forgetfulness. In fact, we even take many things for granted. Take the ‘Ali Baba’ syndrome in the business sector for example. We want to be rich easily and quickly. Instead of genuinely running a business, we sell or rent out our permits and licenses to foreigners. As a result, the number of Brunei malays who have become true entrepreneurs that we can be proud is less than the ten fingers in our hands as compared to the number of business establishments (especially ‘kedai runcit’, barbershops and tailor shops).

Another example relates to the work attitude of the Brunei malays. The five-tea-break-a-day routine becomes the culture in the government sector. The attitude of ‘karang tah’ has lost the government millions of dollars in terms of productivity and even revenue-generation. As a result, the government sector, which is the first employment choice of any Brunei malay, is slow, inefficient and backward so much so that it can take weeks to send a letter within one tiny district, and months for the results of a few applications. (Come on! What is our population again?)

I totally concur with Dr. Mahathir who said “it is not race or ethnicity but the culture which determines the performance (of the people)”. So, to succeed we must change our culture. It is difficult, of course. To hope that we Bruneians will realize and change ourselves is probably a big wishful thinking.

Therefore, we have to create an environment that can change our perception of our rights of being Brunei malays, our perception of running a business and our perception of work – ‘work to live’ versus ‘live to work’ for our family and our country. We must look towards work as the true reward and take pride in our work, for without pride there may not be progress. This kind of environment may involve monetary reward but the reward should not outweigh the satisfaction of the achievement being made.

We have been blessed with oil and gas. We forget that this will not last forever. While the current generation probably cannot change, the next generation needs to change. We have to ensure that the next generation understands their purpose in life (which sadly is not understood by the current one). It is not an easy task but it has to be done.

Salaam.

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

Not Likely to Change

Apparently our local youths still think that it is their given birth right to work in the government sector (here for full news). Oh perhaps, their life is still full of roses that having no job is better than having a low-paying job in the private sector.

To solve this dilemma, here’s a thought. Considering the government sector is already saturated (or so as I was told) i.e. it can no longer employ the whole 6000 job-seekers (and it shouldn’t be!), there should be some mechanism in place that should stop the idea that everyone can get a government job. And at the same time, make people value their private sector job or at least stick to their private sector job until their contract ends (with good behaviour). So I say, increase the level of qualification requirement and make ‘private sector employment’ a pre-requisite to the ‘popular’ public sector job.

Now, with regard to the ‘elaun sara hidup’, I think it’s either we scrap it off OR give to ALL Bruneians, fair and square (after all everyone is doing their bits to develop the country, regardless of the sector, no?)

Salaam.

Sunday, 2 November 2008

TAP

I was reading the news about TAP today and I couldn’t help doing a quick calculation on my own TAP. And I am worried. Because I don’t think I will have enough money to support myself, let alone to support my family, when I retire until I die.

With the current TAP contributions of 10 % (5%-employee & 5% employer), by the time I retire I will probably earn about $200K. Now, let’s say I live for another 20 years then my monthly retirement will be about $800. I have not taken factors such as inflation which will make the $800 have a lesser value, and Brunei-without-oil which will probably mean I need to spend more for my basic necessities such as medical care.

Oh dear. What should I do? Contribute more seems to be the suggestion.

But hang on, what about those who are earning less than me? What about those who have many children to support? Who, even now, are difficult to make ends meet. How can they possibly ‘voluntarily pay more’ in their contributions?

Anyway, I googled Singapore’s Central Provident Fund (click CPF for a quick summary) which is their TAP equivalence (but more superior). What I find very interesting is their principal behind their scheme:

Over the years, the success of the CPF scheme has depended on values such as self-reliance, good work ethos and family support. Besides encouraging self-reliance, the various schemes underscore the members’ responsibilities as parents, children and breadwinners. The values that the CPF both promote and rely upon include: Standing on one’s own two feet. Every CPF member is encouraged to work, even beyond his retirement age. The CPF savings will guarantee him a comfortable retirement. Even those with modest savings will have enough for basic needs. This self-reliance—funding one’s own retirement instead of relying on the future generation—is a vital element of the scheme.

I don’t know about you but the word ‘guarantee’ stands up. With their total of 30% contribution (10% employee, 20% employer) surely can make that happen. And reading further, there is a required minimum sum to be met, which at the moment is around $100K.

Now, I don’t mean to criticize and belittle anyone’s effort but we seriously need to review our TAP scheme. For a starter, I don’t see any harm in increasing the employer’s contribution. As for those who are working in SMEs, whose employers can’t make the increasing contribution, shouldn't they deserve a miniscule slice of oil income?


Salaam.

Thursday, 14 August 2008

The Curses

I'd hate to think that we are cursed. Double cursed. First, there was the Curse of the Resource (in our case, oil). Now, I wonder if we also suffer from the Curse of the Third Generation as explained by Hsu Dar Ren:

"Looking around us, we can observe that many super rich families often discover that their estate cannot survive the third generation.

The first generation often starts out poor, but through sheer hard work and thriftiness and a little bit of luck become wealthy. From being wealthy, many of them then join the class of the super rich as a result of good entrepreneurial skills and judgment. Many of them, however, remain thrifty even when they become very rich.

The second generation very often grows up during the time their parents were struggling to make their fortune. They are better educated and often will be taught by their parents to "fish" intelligently. So when the family fortune passes to their hands, many of them can still maintain the business and some even expand on it. They are, of course, less thrifty than their parents, and will often marry someone from a rich family.

However, the third generation is usually born with silver spoons in their mouths. They are generally brought up in a life of luxury. They are usually not taught how to fish but are pampered with all sorts of expensive "fish" and hobbies. Many of them are sent overseas for education, but it is not uncommon to find some of them just fooling around and living an extravagant lifestyle. They are given everything and because of that, they do not really know how to cope with difficult situations and the intricacies of the business world.

Adding to that, the family wealth inevitably gets diluted among the more numerous siblings in the 2nd and 3rd generations, especially when these generations are unable to do much to expand the family businesses.

So, the wealth that was passed down just withers away. This is commonly known as the Curse of the Third Generation".

Fate, Cursed or whatever you want to call it, as a Muslim I believe:

“…Surely Allah does not change the condition of a people until they change their own condition…” (Qur’an 13:11).

Salaam.

Land Dilemma

I found an interesting article by Brunei’s National Development Party on the issue of land ownership (click here) which reminds me of a discussion I had with a colleague from the Land Department.


I am no expert in the whole land issue/policy but I do not think the objective of ensuring the local ownership of land has been successfully met, in fact I think it actually has backfired. True, it is a sensitive issue. And for that precise reason, it needs a special attention. The Land Code 1909 really is too outdated, and I do think it deserves some amendments that can accommodate the needs of a new century and most of all the needs of the current economy and its future development without compromising the ‘rightful’ ownership. However for now, I reserve further comments.

Salaam.

Friday, 1 August 2008

Are We Poor OR Are We Stupid?

It is sad to see and hear about the events happening in Brunei (i.e. the food clamouring and the coupon stampede) that have even result into human tragedy (courtesy to ranoadidas.com for always bringing the important news). It would be normal if it happened in a third world country, but for it to happen in Brunei, an oil-rich country, is quite extraordinary.

The question, as rightly put by Mr. Brunei Resources, is “What Happened to Bruneians?

Now, there are 2 schools of thoughts. One says that it is simply because we are poorer and the other says we are too materialistic that we don’t even know how to differentiate between what is right and what is wrong i.e we are stupid.

Unfortunately, we can never truly find out until a proper income gap analysis is carried out. It is imperative that we know how many Bruneians are poor, how poor and why they are poor. Without such analysis, then we can never know and we will only end up having the rich blaming the poor (of being immoral and shameless) and the poor blaming the system (of unfairness).

While I do not doubt the existence of those who are genuinely poor, I also believe that the pool of poor people in Brunei is also largely made-up of those self-made poor, who are spending beyond their means. Regardless of how people become poor, we need to address poverty properly. There are 2 critical issues to tackle. One, how do we lift Bruneians off their existing poverty and two, how to keep the zero poverty (if it is ever achieved).

Now, if I were an economic advisor to Brunei, these are what I would suggest:

  1. Get our statistics and figure right. We NEED to know our poverty statistics A.S.A.P.
  2. If the finding (whether this is made public or otherwise) is that there are indeed a large number of poor people in Brunei, then we really need to review our economy. If people are poor because there is no job, then we need to pump-up the economy. This is THE time to make use of the oil-money.
  3. Lifting people off poverty does not simply mean giving them money. We need to be creative in giving them the means to make money. True, this is easier said than done given the unfortunate attitude of some (most?) of Bruneians who more than many times do not see the rationale behind the self-aid help. But with proper monitoring and perhaps some taught management skill, I’m sure there will be some positive results. The key is for the relevant agency to NOT to give-up. Don’t let one bad apple ruins the whole basket.
  4. It is time to differentiate the different types of goods available in the market. There are the luxurious and there are the normal ones. The problem in Brunei is that there are too many ‘high standard’ people who will not make do with just the normal goods and then there are also too many of us who always want to keep up with the Joneses. For many of these people, the euphoria of owning the latest mobile set or a branded watch has blinded their rational judgement and has reduced their mathematical ability to calculate their monthly balance to pre-kindy level. Therefore I believe the good old system of tax can somewhat alleviate this problem of euphoria-blindness. We need to tax (highly) the luxurious goods.
  5. A credit monitoring system needs to be put in place. I cannot just go to any store and sign any credit agreement without a thorough check of my credit rating.
  6. It is time to review the TAP contribution. There is a need to increase the contribution from the employees. We need to make sure Bruneians save for their own future. And of course, since Brunei coffer by now must have filled with a lot of oil money, I would also say that the government needs also to increase its contribution into TAP not only into the account of those in the public sector but also to Bruneians in the private sector. Afterall, the money is saved for the future. This contribution from the government I believe could be the key to reduce the remuneration gap between the public-private sectors. It would help increase the attractiveness of the private sector and would (hopefully) alleviate the problem of lazy Bruneians who would rather be unemployed than do manual job.
  7. We need also to look at our system of income re-distribution. How do we re-distribute the income from the rich to the poor. While income tax may not be accepted in the near future, property tax certainly deserves some high level discussion now.
  8. I don’t know how good our police force or those in the NCB are in combating drug wars, but I pray with all my heart for them to be really good.
  9. Finally, I think too much subsidy make people too lazy.

Salaam.

Friday, 25 April 2008

Big Salary, Enough Salary?

Today, thousands of teachers in the UK went on strike and as a result thousands of schools were closed, forcing millions of parents to look for alternative daycare for their children. Thankfully, my children's school didn't participate so school was normal for them.

Today was the teachers. Previously, the university lecturers, the postmen/women and the policemen/women also went on strike due to dispute over pay rise.

I'm thankful that no such incidence has ever happened in Brunei. I cannot imagine the reaction from our government :). But then the pay and perks in the government sector are higher compared to the private sector. Whether or not the current salary scales are appropriate (i.e. taking into account the inflation growth rates over the years) is however another question. I can see the dilemma our government would be facing if the current wage rates are found to be below the appropriate rates. If it raises the scale, it will further widen the public-private wage gap.

Don't take me wrong. I'm not asking for a pay rise. But I think it is unavoidable and equally necessary for some sort of study on the appropriateness of the current salary scale to be carried out especially in the light of poverty reduction. The results will not only be used to aid the poverty alleviation policy but will also be useful in other policies and most of all will be very, very interesting (at least to me!).

Salaam.

Friday, 18 April 2008

Rejuvenate Brunei's GLCs

What interests me the most, while browsing the World Trade Policy Review of Brunei, is this bit of information:

(Per cent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Saving and investment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gross national savings 47.2 48.6 51.4 59.1 62.4
Gross domestic investment 21.3 15.1 13.5 11.4 10.4
Savings-investment gap 26.0 33.6 37.9 47.8 52.1

(sorry, I'm no good in pasting the Table. For the full set click here and I refer to Table 1.2)

The saving-investment gap is huge! And the gap is because there is too much saving and too little investment (which isn’t usually the case in many countries). Now, if you’re an economics student and using Year 1 Macroeconomics, you will know that this excessive saving means there is a capital account surplus which could lead to a glut in the economy which eventually could lead to a recession.

Now, my question is why oh why are we acting as if we do not have enough capital to move the economy? To be specific, we are acting as if we’re having a gap that is caused by too little saving and therefore needs an external financing i.e. the FDI. And I have the impression that we seem to be helpless without the FDI. Now, I’m not saying that FDI is not important and I’m sure I don’t have to enumerate the reasons why we need an FDI. What I’m trying to say is that, given the availability of excessive domestic capital, it is high time that Brunei should also place the importance of the domestic investment in the effort to diversify the economy.

Despite the excessive capital however, the private sector in Brunei is weak, both in terms of resources and expertise, to undertake any major domestic investment. Therefore it is imperative (and equally inevitable) for the government sector to assist the private sector development, in particular, to do the investing.

To tell you the truth, at the beginning I wanted to propose the establishments of government-linked companies (GLCs) the likes of Singapore, but then I remembered, we DO have GLCs! Unfortunately for some reasons our GLCs are very quiet (if not, I wouldn’t have forgotten hehe) and do not appear to be spearheading the investment efforts.

I’m sure by now, many of you will be saying that Brunei’s GLCs won’t work because their managers and Board of Directors are civil servants who lack business acumen, risk-averse, slow in decision-making and their investments mainly political as opposed to commercially motivated. TRUE! And for this precise reason, I believe we need to rejuvenate our GLCs by removing (or perhaps reducing) the number of civil servants in the companies. Let’s put true entrepreneurs and real managers. If we can’t find locals then for the love of Brunei, hire (the best money can buy) foreign experts! Because the lack of competent local human resource to drive the economy is our main problem in the first place (which is nothing to be ashamed of, given our small population and the current nature of our economy, however this does not mean that Brunei’s HR should forever be at the current state) and I don't see anything wrong in hiring foreign talents. Nevertheless, we should be using Singapore as an example. Singapore’s phenomenal economic growth is, after all, the result of its strategy of ‘state capitalism’.


Let’s face the fact, we are not exactly a foreign investment magnet and on its own, our private sector is too weak and too small to drive the economy. At the same time, our oil is depleting. Therefore, I believe the inevitable solution is for the government, through its GLCs, to assume a proactive role both in the entrepreneurial development and the economic diversification effort. For the GLCs to assume this role efficiently, they need to have adequate resources and most importantly become proper business entities which mean risk-taking and being competitive. It is time for the government to let go its domineering role in the GLCs’s decision-makings and to also take the risk. Because if it doesn’t, then the only alternative for Brunei is for us to pray (very hard) for oil to never runs dry.

Salaam.

Sunday, 23 March 2008

The Dilemma of SME Part 2

Other issues faced by the SMEs in Brunei are the small market size and the lack of production incentives. With our population of about 380,000 really does not make Brunei an attractive place for any production or businesses. The small market size is further aggravated by cheap competition from import and high local cost.

Of course, somebody would reply that Brunei's SMEs should not limit themselves to the domestic demand and therefore should explore the regional and even the world market. True. But in truth that is easier said than done. Heeks (1998) in his paper (click here) pointed a number of related problems. First, he pointed that Brunei is an island of wealth in the sea of local poverty, at least in Borneo island itself. But it is also true in the context of ASEAN. Brunei is the second wealthiest country after Singapore (measured by the GDP per capita) which is followed by Malaysia and then Thailand. The remaining ASEAN countries are all earning less than US$1000 per capita – they hardly can become our potential markets! Second, where regional markets exist, someone has got there first, producing high quality products at low cost, thus presenting entry barriers to new-comers especially, one that lacks competitiveness.

Now, I’m not trying to be negative but sometimes we have to be realistic. I believe, in order for our local (and weak) SMEs to take their chance in the regional market, let alone the global market, they need assistance. For example, they need to know just what types of products to produce (for e.g. products that have high import growth rates in the global market) given their capabilities. And then of course they will also need (continuous) help in the area of capacity building to increase the products’ competitiveness especially in terms of the quality. Now, my question is, have we got these in place?

OK before we go further into the discussion of providing supports for export-production, let’s first look at the supports for local production. What incentives are we giving to the local producers? You would probably be thinking of the recently reduced corporate tax. Is that enough? The corporate tax, first of all, is not payable by sole proprietorships, which makes up a large chunk of our private sector. And then there is the ‘pioneer status’ scheme, but then again does it apply to a large number of our local SMEs? Correct me if I’m wrong but I think both the corporate tax and the pioneer status scheme are more directed towards the attraction of foreign investors (which I am in support of!). Now, my question again, what then are the incentives we are giving to the local small and medium enterprises? Our SMEs don’t even have complete access to crucial information such as market demand, input costs, availability of sources of production so on and so forth! And so how do we expect our local SMEs to go abroad and compete when they are not even developed domestically.

Now, back to the issue of the small domestic market. How do we then overcome this problem? At the top of my head, we can do this in 2 ways. One, through the natural population increase, which would take AGES! And two, through migration. OK, maybe in our case, not migration per se but we need to find ways to attract foreigners to come and spend in the country. How? One, we need to increase the number of tourists coming to Brunei. The tourism department, from the looks of it, is putting a lot of effort into this. [It’s ashamed really, that the apparent lack of policy co-ordination among other departments somehow weakens the effort (perhaps another post on this one)]. Two, we can attract foreigners who have high purchasing power to come and stay in Brunei. Brunei, being a tax haven has already 'the' appealing factor for anyone to come and live in the country :). However, there is a larger policy implication which is related to another policy taboo – land and property foreign ownership. Now, I’m no expert on this but personally I don’t really see the harm in allowing foreigners, who can make ‘economic contributions’ to purchase properties for the sole purpose of occupation (see for example how Singapore is doing it). Just imagine the spin-off effects of this policy! We can expect a boom in the housing sector and the construction industry, and then of course, the increase in the demand for ALL goods and services which will have the desired direct effect on our local SMEs. Oh I can picture a shift in the aggregate demand for Brunei! (And only then we can seriously talk about providing world-class services be it in education, health etc..)

Oh dear, there’s so much to think of! I do hope I am NOT the only one thinking about this. And while thinking is good, but please for the love of Brunei, DO something about it. I will probably write more on this topic.

Salaam.

Sunday, 16 March 2008

The Dilemma of SME Part 1

I’ve wanted to write something about SMEs in Brunei because this is another topic which I feel has not been properly addressed and where (again) policies and solutions offered are not coordinated.

I agree that the government has been very supportive in the development of SMEs but I am not convinced with the effectiveness of the given supports. Let’s go back to 30 years ago when Brunei started a SME Loan scheme for Malay citizens in the mid 1970s, known as the EDB scheme which unfortunately did not result in many success stories.

The failure of the EDB scheme to create many SMEs is mainly because it wasn’t participated by the intended recipients. (More than 65% of the loan went to non-entrepreneurs for buildings of houses which were mainly for rentals – not exactly the type of business we are looking for). Why? This is mainly because the EDB required collateral which could not be provided by any would-be genuine entrepreneur who didn’t have the means to do so. And as a result the only group that was able to apply for the loan was mostly those in the government sector, who were NOT trained to be risk-takers and to become genuine entrepreneurs.

Fast forward to today. The EDB scheme is now being replaced by a few financing schemes offered by the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources through the Brunei Islamic Bank. While the new schemes may no longer be utilized to build rental houses, yet they pose the same constraint (or perhaps even more strict) to Brunei start-ups – the need to provide some forms of collateral in order to participate in the schemes. Well, of course I don’t expect for the money to be distributed freely to anyone who claims to be an entrepreneur but I am also positive that there are Bruneians out there who really have some viable business ideas but do not have the means to meet the banks’ strict loan scrutiny. So, where can they go for help?

This issue of the lack of availability of credits to genuine entrepreneurs and/or if you think in the reverse order, the availability of credits to non-genuine entrepreneurs to me is very much related to the issue of the wide-emerging of ‘Ali-Baba’ businesses. It works in 2 ways. On the one hand, those who are able to obtain the loans, who are mostly government servants, create businesses under the names of their wives/husbands/children while the business itself is run by some foreigners. On the other hand, those who are not able to obtain any loan seek some foreign external investors, and this coupled with the lack of proper business direction and experience, eventually results in the formation of ‘Ali Baba’ firms. This partly explains why despite the growing number of SMEs over the years, the number of success stories is paltry.

Of course the issue of ‘Ali Baba’ businesses is, to a large extent, attributable to the attitude (laziness) and the mentality of our own people (easy money). I personally feel the government’s effort in developing ‘local rakyat melayu Brunei’ to be the champions in the business sector has backfired. Despite all local privileges and the policy of local contents in almost all government projects, the locals still have not changed their position. It makes me wonder whether the very reason Brunei locals have not developed in the business sector compared to non-locals, is due to the over-protectiveness of our policies (all sorts of policies! e.g. land policy, local content, public sector jobs etc.) towards the Brunei locals. How? Those who are excluded from such ‘privilege’ policies have to work for their survivals. To most of them, forming a business IS an economic necessity. This however is not the case for the local Brunei, who have always been pampered and secured with high-paying jobs. And at the same time, those non-locals who see some business opportunities but are not in the position of setting up their own proper businesses seek the locals who are more than willing to lend their names in exchange for some business equity.

This is the real dilemma and poses a challenge to policy formulation. On the one hand, we want to help the locals. On the other hand, how can we ensure that the locals will not abuse any new given support? Nevertheless, Brunei can no longer wait and see and hope for the best. Brunei is not as it was 30 years ago. Brunei NEEDS to diversify its economy and strengthen its private sector. And the private sector needs help.

Anyway, going back to the issue of obtaining start-up credits, I personally think that Brunei should explore the idea of ‘angel investors’ or the provision of ‘seed money’ to new entrepreneurs who have no means to adhere to the collateral requirements of the existing financing schemes. Of course the risk is high but as the saying goes, No Pain No Gain! And if the government is not ready to take the risk, then how can we expect the people to take similar risk?

And at the same time, the issue of ‘Ali Baba’ businesses need to be tacked ASAP. It is simply an economic disease that needs a remedy. I must admit, it is not an easy task as it involves the changing of attitude and mindset and also requires a strong coordination from different government departments. However, as long as the mentality of ‘easy money’ exists among the locals, no matter how sophisticated the supports to local SMEs are, Brunei’s hope to create local businesses may just remain a non-achievable long-term economic goal.

I will write more on SME-related issues. In the meantime, I welcome views from everyone.

Salaam.

Thursday, 28 February 2008

Spoilt and Shameless

My blood boils when I read Mr BR's post on What Would Superman Do?. Not because I am angry at him but because I deeply share his sentiment. I still cannot fathom why our people can be so irresponsible, shameless and so selfish. It makes me so sad to think that after 24 years of independence, we are still unable to stand on our own 2 feet and still need the government to do basically everything for us! I call it the Third World Mentality. You know why? In the developed countries, people are so independent. Their self dignity and pride are strong. They don't ask for help easily because they take pride in what they do. Often you see people in wheel-chairs and people who are pysically less fortunate are doing what normal people do and as efficient. We have a lady - an undergraduate students' secretary- in our department who has lost 1 leg. One day, I was looking for a printer cartridge and it was in the last drawer of a file cabinet. Instead of telling me where it was, she went to the cabinet, with her crutches, and bended down to get the cartridge. I was surprise! I quickly went to her and obviously offered my help and you know what she said with her smiling face, "It's OK...Thank you...". Gosh!

Now, look at our people! God has given each one of us a brain, 2 arms and 2 legs, and WHY oh WHY are we acting like some helpless creatures in this world? Where is our self dignity ? Before I read Mr BR's post (I suggest you read it too!) I was discussing with my husband regarding the irresponsibility of our people. Someone we know who has been fortunate enough to get one of the houses in the Rimba Housing, apparently has not been paying the government. Both husband and wife are working with only 1 child to support. Furthermore, they have a rental house somewhere in Brunei which is being rented. I mean WHAT are they thinking?! What is worse, because of their irresponsibility and their selfish act (please see my previous post on this), the person who acts as their guarantor is now being burdened. The last we heard, the poor guarantor had received a few warning letters. AND these sad (good-for-nothing) couple just duh! I believe this is NOT an isolated case because a couple of years back, during a dinner at the Istana, I was fortunate or rather unfortunate to hear the gruesome tales of our people not paying their debt, have mountains of debt and on and on from officers from various government departments.

And we are not only talking about housing payments (which is a major issue) but also on things as mundane as paying the rent for wedding clothes (baju pengantin). Just a few days ago, my sister who is about to have her baby shower (Mandi Berlawat) told me that she was shocked that her i.c was being asked by the shop from which she is renting her baju. Simply because the shop assistant told her that there have been MANY cases where people just don't bother to pay and obviously never return the attires. GOD!

What is WRONG with us, people? I am really-really sad. For a Muslim and a wealthy country and not to mention a caring government, what MORE do we want? Honestly, I have a headache thinking about this..and I think I better stop here before I develop a migraine.

Mr BR was nice (presumably subtle) to title his post as 'What Would Superman Do' because I don't think we need a superman, as it will make matters even worse, what we need and deserve is for someone to give us a hard KICK in the b*tt.

Salaam.

Tuesday, 29 January 2008

The Dilemma of Teenage Pregnancies

I was reading an article in Slate regarding the declining rate of abortion in the US. There were a number of factors involved of course, including voluntary prevention through birth control schemes nevertheless, the debate continues (on legalising abortion). Interestingly however, it was reported that more and more Americans are now campaigning not against abortion, but against 'teen sex'.

Now, for a Muslim country, therein lies the dilemma. Sex education, to give or not to give? By giving sex education at schools, we're seen as conforming to the act (of pre-marital sex) which is forbidden in Islam. By not giving it, we are faced with social illnesses: abortion, sexual transmited diseases, (unwed) teenage pregnancies and worse of all, abandoning or killing innocent babies.

Whether we like it or not, we can't just turn blind eyes to the increasing trend of 'teen sex' in Brunei. No data, however is available to support this but from my conversations with a couple of doctors in Brunei confirms that the trend is worsening. I once asked one of my doctor friends, why is there no collaboration between the Health Ministry and the Ministry of the Religious Affairs (MRA). At that time, I thought by informing the MRA, at least the problems associated with 'single (teenage) parents' could be prevented and let the teens be responsible with their acts. And she replied that if they were to inform the MRA everytime an unwedded teen got pregnant or delivered a baby, then the worst might happened. How so? The pregnant teens (who were already scared) now would not have any place to go. What is feared that more and more illegal abortion would take place which would be harmful to the pregnant teens and worse, more and more innocent babies would be left abandoned. Even as it is, according to her, these pregnant girls only went to seek medical help at a later stage of their pregnancies which were often not without complications.

Even if the teens seek an early help, it may also not help solve the problems. Once they are found pregnant, obviously the morally right thing to do is to marry them off. But their future could also end there. They have to quit school. Without proper education and qualification, how do we expect them to lead a high quality life? How do we even expect them to provide for their children?

Now, back to sex education. I guess, to preach through the morals of religion alone is no longer sufficient. What is needed I think is a good and open communication between the teenagers and the educator (including you and me). The more these young people have their questions answered regarding contraception, relationships, sexual health and the responsibility of being a parent, I think will help them to make the decision in delaying any sexual relationship and hopefully to get to do the right thing of 'sex after marriage'.

No matter how and what approach we want to use, please let there be one. Pregnancies among the teens not only affect their lives but also affect the nation as a whole, especially for a country where human resource is valuable. If you read my previous post, unwanted teenage pregnancies could lead to a vicious circle which could lead to poverty and thus affecting the healthy development of the nation. It is a tough challenge of course, but somebody HAS to do it.

Salaam.

Sunday, 20 January 2008

Ain't No My Business!

I must admit I was quite disheartened by comments made by some people who spoke to me and emailed me regarding my view on the fuel subsidy as well as my view on Bruneians’ lavish lifestyles. I however cannot help think how hypocrite these people are. Before this, they all wanted change. Brunei should do this, this, this and that. When the time to change is finally there, then they thought otherwise. So, tell me, what do YOU want? How do you expect the economy to change? By fate? When oil runs dry? Since there are so many of you who are clever enough to change the economy, then why aren’t we changing? Why is the GDP structure still the same since aeons?

Some said, so what if people drive big cars and buy expensive goods. Why should they think of tomorrow when they can enjoy today? And most of all it is none of MY bloody business to tell off people what and how to spend their income!

AND these are my answers to you:

Firstly, YES it is none of my concern what you people do with your money. It is YOUR life. BUT please stop complaining. You are the very people who keep on moaning that life is unfair. You are the first people who would object to real changes. If you think your future and that of your children’s are in good hands, then why should it bother you that the fuel subsidy will be lifted, or even if one day income tax will be imposed?

Secondly, it is clear you are missing my point. Nobody says that Bruneians should live shabbily or eat ‘nasi dengan kicap’. By all means, for those who think they can afford luxurious livestyles, then who’s stopping? If you must know, it is also equally harmful to the economy if nobody is spending (like what happened to Japan). My message is meant specifically to those who cannot afford such a lifestyle. Ukur baju di badan sendiri as the saying goes. Not everyone has a 4-digit monthly income, you know! And I have also seen many of those who are earning decent monthly incomes, who work as senior officers in government departments, cannot even pay their children’s school fees! WHY? Simply because they value their NOWS.

My aunt, who is a headmistress in one of a well known private primary school, told me that they were having a dilemma. She told me that there were HUNDREDS of parents who could not pay the school fees. She said she would understand if they worked in the private sector but these parents were government officers! I asked her what about the government’s education subsidy i.e. the monthly payment of what $120 per child (please correct me if I’m wrong)? Where did the money go? She said probably to ‘the car’, because apparently some parents bought new cars a few weeks before the fee was due. She said it was heart-breaking to make the decision of expelling children from school, just because their parents think cars are more important in their life. As much as the school wants to help the children, at the end of the day my aunt says, “it is not a charity”.


But, think of the consequences. It is not only the child who will be affected by such selfish act. The whole nation will do too! Now, I’m not going to put forward the argument that if you think you can’t afford to pay the private school’s fee, then the children should be sent to the government schools (while education is still free!), because as a parent myself, I know that I want the BEST for my children. But, please I implore, PAY their fees! And I'm also NOT patronising the quality of the government's schools. I am, after all, a product of one. (Hmm.. perhaps another blog entry for this topic).

Now, again back to the fuel subsidy. I ask myself, is it really fair for the government to reduce the subsidy now? When prices of goods are on the rise? When everyone is feeling the heat? When, even the global economy looks gloomy?

Well, my answer is still YES. My views still stand. I still think it is still a waste for the government to spend more and more to subsidise the prices of car fuel. As the oil price goes up, the amount of subsidy will also go up. I strongly agree with the comment made by 55 in my last post. If and when the subsidy (of any kind) is reduced, then some sort of concession system must be set up to help those who truly deserve the subsidy. Subsidy in economics is after all, an instrument to distribute income equally. It is NOT meant for everyone. Those who are earning above a certain level (usually above the minimum) let alone those who have hefty incomes, do not deserve to receive such subsidy especially when no income tax is imposed.

Finally, my profession is related with policy-making. So, I believe all of the problems associated with the economy, WILL be my concern.

Anyway, I think I understand that the resistance to the policy change is not caused simply by people not wanting to change (right?). I guess, the problem is related with what economists say as 'asymmetric information'. The public do not know what to expect. Are there any supporting policies to help remedy the situation which is expected to have negative effects? And which government agencies will be responsible in providing the supporting policies? How big is this subsidy reduction? And so on. I myself, am anxious to find the answers. I think it would be ridiculous if no one is doing anything to help mitigate the effects.

I guess that's all I will say for now. In any case, this blog is meant for those who are interested in economics and its workings without the boring mathematical equations. As I said in my first post, my views may be right, but most often they will probably be wrong.

Salaam.

Sunday, 6 January 2008

Aren't We a Flashing Nation?

It was quite amusing to find the news in Brudirect today. The first main news was about the raid in the hotel, the second was about religious school adopting a system of something, the third was about another irresponsible Bruneian and look! the fourth main news was the announcement of the open tender for 2-digit license plate..Wow! LOL

This, to me just shows how 'flashing' the Bruneians are. The shorter and the smaller your car plate numbers, the more 'VIP' you are. So, people (hoping to be VIPs) are willing to pay loads just to get their so called 'favourite or lucky' numbers. Baah!

I'm actually quite sad that this is the lifestyle adopted by a great number of Bruneians. Big (and expensive) flashy cars. The latest mobile phones. The last time they played golf (which would always be the last weekend). The biggest flat screen tvs. The most beads (manik) on the baju kurung (haha). And the list goes on. It is like people seem to think that they are judged by what they use or wear. (Maybe some people do actually judge by those criteria. What a pity!).

To tell you the truth, it is really quite uncomfortable to be around these types of people (who are almost everywhere in Brunei). Especially if your mobile phone is about 2 years old, you wear just a baju kurung, your car is just another Toyota and you don't play golf!. At the same time however it is also very irritating when all they talk about are the latest mobile phones or their handicap (what?! handicap?! are they 'special' or something?) or the latest car they just bought. Wow! The world must be perfect for these people despite the fact that their latest credit card bills would probably be almost reaching the limit, the headmasters of their children's schools are scratching their heads waiting for the school fee payments (which I can tell you LOADS!) and their disposable income is probably less than 30% of their gross income. Worse, there is no saving for their children's future!

And sadly, it is not only me who is pitying our fellow Bruneians, the foreigners too. When we went back to Brunei sometime last year, we (my hubby and I) decided that it was time to replace our ageing mobile phones (the girl gave me a sly smile when I asked if I could use 3G with that phone. Haha THAT old!). So while the Filipino lady was preparing our phones I asked her how many people buy phones each day. And she said 'quite many'. And I asked her, 'paid by cash or using one of those installments offered by the banks i.e. hutang lah?'. And she gave me this smile (that translates 'are you kidding? cash?). And I asked how many? She said 'quite many'. Then she said she didn't understand why people wanted to put themselves into debt just for a mobile phone. I said, don't let your boss hear you saying that..hahaha.

A couple of times, I must admit my husband and I were thinking of buying one of those luxurious cars. Why not? We can afford it, can't we?

Well..after 1 night sleep we scratched off that thought. Why? First, a car is NOT an asset, it is a LIABILITY..the first 2 years of driving..wow..fantastic...but then...after that...I'm sure many of you would love to share the cost of maintaining such cars. Second, we haven't got a house of our own. Until we do..then we say FORGET it!. Finally, there's our children's education funds. If our children are brilliant then, perhaps some scholarships would be granted. But you never know what will happen in the future.

I'm actually quite worried that this kind of 'rich and flashy' lifestyle is adopted not only by the middle-income earners but also the lower-income earners. The desire to have luxurious items is probably the main culprit why many Bruneians have become 'poor'. If you were to measure the level of poverty based on the disposable income, I am sure it will be staggering. How to amend this? A simple answer from an economist would probably through the good old tax. But I'm sure nobody wants that (and I am also risking my neck suggesting it hahaha!). But I think some kind of awareness campaign against debt should be introduced where the message has to be strong and the campaign done rigorously.

Oh well..it's a beautiful Sunday morning here in England and we need to do some grocery shopping. My only hope (more of a wishful thinking) is that Bruneians will change. I'd honestly hate to come back to the same 'flashy' nation.

Salaam.

Tuesday, 18 December 2007

Paradox of Plenty: Are We Cursed?

A few days ago BB reported the findings of the Asian Development Bank's International Comparison Study (click here for the ADB report) and that Brunei was the richest in the region with a GDP Per Capita income of about US$34,600.

Translation: It is the amount that every person who lives in Brunei (those who make up the population) would receive yearly from the income generated through productive activities. Well, now you know what it means, please don't go march to the Ministry of Finance and demand that money! In reality, as we all know some earn more and some earn less. And of course, if the government were to spend all the money on its people then what future would lie for us? Basically Per Capita income is used as a measure of wealth i.e. the higher, the wealthier.

Now, back to the ADB's report. Should we celebrate being the richest?

Look around us, we have unemployment, people rely on government employment, the private sector is weak and the economy is far from being diversified. These, ladies and gentlemen, are the traits of a country 'cursed' with natural resources. The economic term for it is the resource curse thesis (Richard Auty, 1993) which describes how a country cannot use its wealth to boost its economy. What happens is that because the income from oil and gas (the natural resources) is so high, the economy revolves around it. The government who is the recepient of the oil income, for example, pays higher salaries then other (private) industries. As a result, everyone wants to work with the government. Another example is tax. Because Brunei is so rich, the government doesn't want/need to burden its people and as a result we may be deprived of more efficient public services.

Another negative effect of having an abundant natural resource, particularly the richly oil, is rentierism. A rentier state is a country which derives a large portion of its national revenue from a natural resource. The characteristics of a rentier state which are not favourable to the economic development, among others are limited linkages between the oil sector and the rest of economy, high dependence on import of goods, lack of economic diversification, a large import of foreign labours manning basic services and many others (which are quite sensitive but very interesting!).

Perhaps, the most negative effect of being a rentier state is the creation of a 'rentier mentality' in which rewards of income or wealth do not come from work, but come as a result of chance (Beblawi, 1990).

Anyway, to me these are all very interesting. I sincerely hope that somebody would do some research on how badly 'cursed' are we? Or should we really blame the natural resources? And what should we do to right the wrongs? And many other questions.

Oh, well it's almost midnight and my back hurts. Till then.

Salaam.

Monday, 28 May 2007

Brunei Dilemma

In my earlier post 'Unemployment, is it really a Problem?' I wrote that 'Brunei is facing a larger problem and that is the 'mind-set' problem.'

You see, Brunei is unique. I have a strong feeling that the general definition of unemployment in Brunei is 'those who don't work in the government sector or BSP or big banks'. You maybe disaggree but don't you always hear these statements:

"Anakku keraja di company, iatah mun dapat keraja d kerajaan, bisai.."; and
" I am applying to so and so department, in the mean time I'm working in company x"; and
" I would like to work in this company, unfortunately my parents don't let me and want me to work in the government" (this is a real line made by 1 of my husband's x-local staff; and
How many times have you read in the Brudirect Have Your Say, people are accusing certain government departments as being 'croynism' and 'nepotism' because they are being turned down;
And so on and on and on....

It seems that, people don't consider they have a 'proper job' whenever they work in the private sector. Why? Isn't brick-laying or serving in a restaurant or being a receptionist in a company, a job? I am sure a great many of you will answer "It's not the same....and it's not fair..people who are working in the government have high pay, have lots of benefits etc etc".
Fair enough I said. BUT my question is, is it still not a job? Won't it put food on the table?

This is precisely the mind-set problem that Brunei is currently facing. Nothing new to many of us but to me the number 1 cuplrit in the issue of Brunei so-called 'unemployment'.

On the other hand, there are of course thousands out there who really are looking for jobs but don't find one. Yet, we see thousands of foreign workers working as cashiers, sales persons, waiters etc. A large blame has also been put on the employers for doing this. Now, my question is should we really blame them?

You see, I believe the 'mind-set' problem's perfect partner in crime is the 'attitude' problem. And this attitude problem is actually an even a larger problem to solve. While the 'mind-set problem' will be instantly solved once the person finds a job in the government sector, the 'attitude' problem might not (and sometime would get even worse). [Anyway, this post is about mind-set so, a whole new post should be dedicated to the 'attitude' problem of the locals]

WHAT SHOULD WE DO then? You ask.

Now, I've thought of a number of ways to answer this question. (I've even listed a number of strategies hahaha) But I ask myself, WHO am I? Plus it could (probably) put me into trouble.
Well, to me there is no easy and straight-forward answer to this. The strategies should be multi-level for different groups of people. Education, for example, can be the main strategy to change the mind-set of the future generation. National campaigns, perhaps can be launched to change the mind-set of the older generation(the parents who think that there is no job, but government job) and the current job-seekers.

By now, I'm sure you are still going to ask 'What about the remuneration GAP between the public and private sector?'
My answer would be this: The gap for now will still exist. You can't just simply cut down people's salary in the public sector. On the other hand, you can't just simply ask the private sector to increase their salary. As an economist, I would also say that your earning would eventually depend on your productivity i.e. the more productive you are, the more you will earn. And I have seen many examples where people who have lower starting earning (mostly in the private sector) have now out-performed (and earn more) their peers (mostly in the government sector) in terms of productivity and wealth (i.e. in terms of borrowing less).

I would however also like to add that I think it is high time that somebody takes up the 'remuneration gap' issue seriously. Maybe not the difference in salary 'per se' because as I said you can't just simply adjust the salary. But in terms of other 'equal' opportunities. I don't know, but at the top of my head now is the opportunity to upgrade one's qualification, especially in the university and graduate level. For instance, there should be a mean/ public agency where locals who work in the private sector could get the (financial) assisstance to upgrade him/herself (OTHER THAN BANKS of course!). While government employees have the JPA in-service scheme, where can the private employees go to? Yes, the MOE does offer a scholarship scheme to locals but it only caters to young people (up to the age of 30). And what about other skills? So, where can the rest go? (I am thinking of something in the line of interest-free education loan or maybe subsidy to private employers etc.). It is afterall, human investment and will be highly related to higher labour productivity! And I think it is also equally important that Brunei should create local expertise not only in the public sector, but also in the private sector, especially so if we want the private sector to be the 'engine of growth'.

Oh! there goes my afternoon... To end, I think the mind-set problem is the cause of a real dilemma for Brunei unemployment problem. On the one hand, you want to solve just simply by creating as many jobs (in the government sector) as you can but it means the locals won't learn and won't recognize that there is a problem i.e. they won't change. On the other hand, you can't just leave the matter and hope that people will 'eventually' change. Afterall, unemployment is still a problem and needs to be properly addressed. And it is complicated! And that is why I believe everyone should work together to solve this dilemma. Policies and efforts must be syncronized with one another. Public and private must work hand in hand.

Oh Dear! What do I know? I'm just a mommy of 2. Enough thoughts for today!

Salaam.

ps. You can be sure that my husband and I are grooming our children to enter the private sector, which we believe have A LOT MORE to offer : ).