There has been another ‘exciting’ development in Brunei’s quest to diversify its economy (or I hope it is what we are doing), and that is Brunei wishes to be the ‘city in the garden’. Is this just a mere statement or is this a real project with plans and strategies already being formulated? If it is a real project, I would love to know and maybe contribute ideas but if it isn’t, then Brunei better do something about it because you can’t just announce to the world that you want to be something and not do it and expect the world to forget.
The thing about us in Brunei is that we love to make fancy headlines: ‘halal branding’, ‘heart of Borneo’, 'Kingdom of Unexpected Treasures', ‘service hub (ShuTT)’, ‘ICT park’, ‘offshore financial centre’, ‘Brunei Inc. (or something like that)’, just to name a few. Please don’t take me wrong, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t do this or we cannot dream big but I have yet to see the end products.
I think the main reason why we have not achieved anything in relation to these ‘fancy’ projects or actually ANY project is that there is a lack of detailed plan and strategies. Even if there is one, it is never shared with the public let alone debated. Even worse it is sometimes not even shared among the relevant agencies. As a result the public, including the private sector, do not understand, never mind contribute, and therefore the project is not appreciated and supported.
Take for example ‘halal branding’. Seriously, I don’t fully understand what is it that we want to do? What is our objective? Can it create massive employment? Can it increase food production? How much resources are we devoting? What is our problem? Why does it take so long? How can we help? Do we mean to say that ‘Brunei Halal’ is better that ‘Malaysia Halal’ or ‘Thailand Halal’? Because believe me, when I go to a shop abroad I only look for ‘Halal’ products. Taste and packaging play a more important role in my decision to buy a particular halal product.
I am no expert but I think it is high time that Brunei goes to the basic of development and economic diversification. Instead of devoting our energy and resources to fancy projects, wouldn’t it be better to concentrate in the actual production? I for one want to hear plans for massive agricultural production or fishery or any kind of manufacturing. It sounds boring but it is what we most need to survive. Do remember that we only have 25 years to turn our economy around. And that is not a very long time.
Salaam.
Saturday 28 June 2008
Thursday 26 June 2008
Reality Bites....in Miri
Somebody sent me a link to a blog post by one of our Sarawakian friends. For the benefit of those who do not have a Multiply account, here it is:
We should be grateful that Brunei still maintains the fuel subsidy (I don't know when will that last though, and I'm not sure whether it is the most sensible and rational policy). Nevertheless, I'm sure Brunei is also affected by the policy change in Malaysia. Perhaps this effect will probably even bigger than an effect of a reduction in Brunei's fuel subsidy.
Too bad for a country that depends on too much import.
But that's reality. And reality bites.
Salaam
MONEY WITH A DIMINISHING VALUE by Zaidil
There is a sudden change in atmosphere in Miri city after the fuel price hike. There are less cars on the road. The shopping centres are less crammed and worst of all... there are not that many happy faces around. From what I sensed, it is just the beginning. The experts predicted that the trend is likely to continue that way for quite some time. So what do we do?
Nothing much I am afraid. If you are an optimist, you will say - work harder so that you can earn more to compensate for the diminishing value of the currency. At the rate the price of goods is increasing you have to earn at least 2 times what you earned a month ago in order to maintain the same level of lifestyle.By the end of this year, you have to earn 4 times what you earned in April. This week Abdullah has just announced that if you work in the govt, you are allowed to do a part time business. Wonder how will that affect the already inefficent govt agencies?
On the other hand, if you are a pessimist, you will start looking for scapegoats and punchbags to put the blame on.
The situation is however not all gloom and doom. The bright side of it all is that there is a lot less road accidents ever since the price hike was annunced and people started to use the public transport more. Actually last sunday was the first time that I went to Boulevard supermarket without anyone ramming my butt with the trolley. I had the entire supermarket for myself.
Another positive development is that people started to think of growing their own vegetables and rice which I think is not a bad idea at all. Myself, I am thinking of digging the document bag to search for that land title which my grand father left more than a decade ago. With a bit of luck the cockroaches have not been so hungry to savour the land title and I might be able to harvest my own Bario rice. Oh do I have to fly to Bario to grow Bario rice!!
We should be grateful that Brunei still maintains the fuel subsidy (I don't know when will that last though, and I'm not sure whether it is the most sensible and rational policy). Nevertheless, I'm sure Brunei is also affected by the policy change in Malaysia. Perhaps this effect will probably even bigger than an effect of a reduction in Brunei's fuel subsidy.
Too bad for a country that depends on too much import.
But that's reality. And reality bites.
Salaam
Wednesday 25 June 2008
Oil Price
I received an email today asking my view on the current issue of the current global oil price hike and the possible 'answer' to the crisis. It has been in my head the whole day today and I'd like to share you my reply to the email. I also believe that as an oil producing country ourselves (albeit small), this issue concerns us. I would also love to hear other views.
Below is the content of the email:
This is my reply:
Thanks so much for reading my blog. If I know the answer to your question then, I wouldn’t be sitting here at home and writing this :).
Nevertheless, this is what I think:
1. I don’t think there is an ‘easy’ solution to the current global crisis because as you clearly point out, there are several reasons to the rise in the oil price. Addressing one or trying to do so without solving the others, does not guarantee that the issue will be resolved, as is the case to the Saudi’s agreement to increase oil production (i.e. oil price remains high).
2. The US needs to strengthen its dollars but that would mean at the expense of the US economy, which as we speak, is ailing. A stronger dollar may worsen their Balance of Payment, which would not help their economic health. But a continuous weak dollar will surely be followed by a continuous increase in the oil price.
3. And then there is a problem of increasing global demand. Now, the ‘economically’ right thing to do is for all governments in the developing countries (where oil demand is high and growing) to remove any oil subsidy. If the domestic oil prices in these countries reflect the international price, then demand for oil will surely go down. But this is (as you can imagine) not without a great cost.
4. Another factor that’s causing the increase in price, if I may add, is the work of the commodity index buyers and speculators. Now, this needs to be stopped.
Without doing all of the above then sadly, it may be true that the only solution to the energy crisis is an actual global recession.
Below is the content of the email:
Dear Freakonomist,
I'm Raiza, an ordinary person who wonders alot on what on earth is gona happen to the world when the oil price hits US$200/ barrel which in turn would give a spiralling effect to the worlds economy wreaking havoc the global financial market. Understanding that you believe there is an economic explanation to everything intrigues me and leads me to email you on the following issues. I humbly request for your opinions and explanations.
What has been bothering me lately is the fact that inflations are occuring in most countries, Brunei is of no exception. I strongly believe that one contributing factor to this is the disturbing rise in oil price.
There are several excuses to the rise in oil price:
1) The global demand for oil is rising.
2) The dollar continues to fall to record lows.
3) And, OPEC refuses to raise production levels, insisting US recession will lower.
Today's newspaper mentions despite the Jeddah Summit where policy makers gathered to have emergency energy talks and that Saudi agreed to increase production by 200,000 barrels to 9.7 million per day, the oil price continues to rise. The rise in oil price this time is blamed on possible terrorist activities in Nigeria. If this is true then yes this would choke oil supplies hence demands on oil can not be answered fully.
Unless... more explorations are done which will mean more huge investments are needed. The story on the energy crisis seems to go on and on and no apparent favorable explanation to resolve the said crisis.
My question now is what are all the possible 'solutions' that can help the world to return to its stable state in the short-term and medium-term? Going green is one but this surely will cost us time! I hope to hear from you soon.
This is my reply:
Thanks so much for reading my blog. If I know the answer to your question then, I wouldn’t be sitting here at home and writing this :).
Nevertheless, this is what I think:
1. I don’t think there is an ‘easy’ solution to the current global crisis because as you clearly point out, there are several reasons to the rise in the oil price. Addressing one or trying to do so without solving the others, does not guarantee that the issue will be resolved, as is the case to the Saudi’s agreement to increase oil production (i.e. oil price remains high).
2. The US needs to strengthen its dollars but that would mean at the expense of the US economy, which as we speak, is ailing. A stronger dollar may worsen their Balance of Payment, which would not help their economic health. But a continuous weak dollar will surely be followed by a continuous increase in the oil price.
3. And then there is a problem of increasing global demand. Now, the ‘economically’ right thing to do is for all governments in the developing countries (where oil demand is high and growing) to remove any oil subsidy. If the domestic oil prices in these countries reflect the international price, then demand for oil will surely go down. But this is (as you can imagine) not without a great cost.
4. Another factor that’s causing the increase in price, if I may add, is the work of the commodity index buyers and speculators. Now, this needs to be stopped.
Without doing all of the above then sadly, it may be true that the only solution to the energy crisis is an actual global recession.
Monday 23 June 2008
Unputdownable
A few months ago somebody left a comment in my tag box, recommending me to read ‘Confessions of an Economic Hit Man’ by John Perkins. It was an interesting read although I don’t know if I believe him. To me, the book is more about politics than economics. Nevertheless, it is a good book and thank you to whoever it was who recommended it. I'm now eyeing 'Rogue Economics' by Loretta Napoleoni (now sitting on my bedside table) which probably is similar to Perkin's but hopefully will have more economics (I was quite surprise to find this book at Borders, with that title and its woman author).
But 'Rogue Economics' needs to wait for a bit because currently I’m reading Lee Kwan Yew’s Memoir: The Singapore Story - From Third World to First. Now, this book is what I call ‘unputdownable’. It is 700 pages (I’ve finished two-third) and the second book of his 2-part memoir. I read the first book when I was pregnant with my eldest daughter and it was an OK book (too much history, and I’m no good with history). But this second book is excellent! He is one of the best writers I’ve come across. He used only simple, straight-forward English, with hardly any jargon or big words, yet his description of the numerous events were alive. I felt as I if I was in his head.
Most of all, I feel this is one of those books that policymakers (especially in Brunei) should read. The book is loaded with economic and development policies. There are many (Singapore) policies that we can relate to and perhaps can ‘try, test’ with probably some modifications based on our resources and our own national objectives.
Speaking of good writers, I also follow with interest Dr. Mahathir’s blogsite. I’ve read most of his books but I love his speeches more. He has the ability to speak and write (especially his blog posts) clearly and delivers what’s in his mind structurally.
Don’t get me wrong, besides the serious stuff, I also read fiction novels. I am a Harry Potter’s fan. Until today, I have yet to find another writer who can rival J.K. Rowling’s HP. (Any suggestion, out there?). My interests also vary. I read Dan Brown to Neil Gaiman to Jeffery Archer to Jodi Picoult to Sophie Kinsella, of course. And I am a sucker for romance too (hehe) especially historical romance. I’m now into children’s novels (that Young Bond books look interesting).
Anyway, I hope one day I will also get to write an ‘unputdownable’ book too. In the meantime, I'm going to curl up in bed and finish the Singapore Story.
Salaam.
But 'Rogue Economics' needs to wait for a bit because currently I’m reading Lee Kwan Yew’s Memoir: The Singapore Story - From Third World to First. Now, this book is what I call ‘unputdownable’. It is 700 pages (I’ve finished two-third) and the second book of his 2-part memoir. I read the first book when I was pregnant with my eldest daughter and it was an OK book (too much history, and I’m no good with history). But this second book is excellent! He is one of the best writers I’ve come across. He used only simple, straight-forward English, with hardly any jargon or big words, yet his description of the numerous events were alive. I felt as I if I was in his head.
Most of all, I feel this is one of those books that policymakers (especially in Brunei) should read. The book is loaded with economic and development policies. There are many (Singapore) policies that we can relate to and perhaps can ‘try, test’ with probably some modifications based on our resources and our own national objectives.
Speaking of good writers, I also follow with interest Dr. Mahathir’s blogsite. I’ve read most of his books but I love his speeches more. He has the ability to speak and write (especially his blog posts) clearly and delivers what’s in his mind structurally.
Don’t get me wrong, besides the serious stuff, I also read fiction novels. I am a Harry Potter’s fan. Until today, I have yet to find another writer who can rival J.K. Rowling’s HP. (Any suggestion, out there?). My interests also vary. I read Dan Brown to Neil Gaiman to Jeffery Archer to Jodi Picoult to Sophie Kinsella, of course. And I am a sucker for romance too (hehe) especially historical romance. I’m now into children’s novels (that Young Bond books look interesting).
Anyway, I hope one day I will also get to write an ‘unputdownable’ book too. In the meantime, I'm going to curl up in bed and finish the Singapore Story.
Salaam.
Friday 20 June 2008
Meritocracy
I've been busy in the past few weeks finishing the final chapter of my dissertation. Alhamdulillah...it's done. But work is not over for me. I need to revise my earlier work. Time flies fast. It's almost 4 years. I can't wait to get to the end. Insya Allah, I will get to the end.
My husband has also finished his course which means it's just another step for him to become a fully qualified international architect. I'm sure he will.
Anyway, both of us believe that education is a lifetime investment (and equally, a lifetime pursuit). Admittedly, it is tough and not easy. There are also times when we question ourselves whether it's worth it. The time and the money we spent - We could have bought a BMW or a Mercedes (that's what I always said to my husband, haha). But most of all, we wonder whether or not we can use what we have learnt to contribute to the development of Brunei?
I'm sorry but Brunei has yet to prove that it's a nation of meritocracy, where people are rewarded for their contribution (regardless of the age) and not for their length of service or worse, for certain 'birthrights'. If Brunei wants to change, it needs to accept and adapt new ideas and new technologies that Bruneians have acquired abroad or even within the country. It needs to listen and encourage its people to question, to debate and to offer solutions. There should also be a two-way communication. Only then Brunei can breed intellectuals and thinkers among the entrepreneurs, the professionals and the policy-makers, who I believe will help create a much diversified Brunei, a dynamic Brunei.
Salaam
My husband has also finished his course which means it's just another step for him to become a fully qualified international architect. I'm sure he will.
Anyway, both of us believe that education is a lifetime investment (and equally, a lifetime pursuit). Admittedly, it is tough and not easy. There are also times when we question ourselves whether it's worth it. The time and the money we spent - We could have bought a BMW or a Mercedes (that's what I always said to my husband, haha). But most of all, we wonder whether or not we can use what we have learnt to contribute to the development of Brunei?
I'm sorry but Brunei has yet to prove that it's a nation of meritocracy, where people are rewarded for their contribution (regardless of the age) and not for their length of service or worse, for certain 'birthrights'. If Brunei wants to change, it needs to accept and adapt new ideas and new technologies that Bruneians have acquired abroad or even within the country. It needs to listen and encourage its people to question, to debate and to offer solutions. There should also be a two-way communication. Only then Brunei can breed intellectuals and thinkers among the entrepreneurs, the professionals and the policy-makers, who I believe will help create a much diversified Brunei, a dynamic Brunei.
Salaam
Tuesday 10 June 2008
Random Post: Sami Yusuf - Munajat (Arabic)
Sorry, no economics today...
This is one singer that can help soothe the trouble and sadness in my heart. The song is in arabic and the translation is below:
Alone, in the darkness of my night
In the loneliness of my path
My worries weigh me down
My sins pain me
Alone, I supplicate to You and I hope
From my sins I complain
I have no one but You
I am at Your door
CHORUS:
Ya Allah, ya Allah
So forgive a servant who intimately calls You
O Allah, O Allah
You are all hope, From You is guidance
O Allah, O Allah
O Allah give me your guidance
For I am still imprisoned
Of disobedience I am no longer capable
So illuminate my paths and forgive my sins
For I am poor and in need of You
My heart has returned to walk on the path
Full of joy and longing, flying to God
And its only hope is gaining your pleasure
On the day of meeting You
You are the Omnipotent.
www.samiyusuf.com
Salaam.
Thursday 5 June 2008
Boost Agricultural Production A.S.A.P
Today Malaysia announced the increase in fuel prices, lifting their price ceiling in the move to reduce government subsidy. It is quite shocking actually. I didn’t expect the price increase would be ‘that’ much. (Note: for a very interesting thought about this by Dr Mahathir, click here).
The effect of this will not only be felt in Malaysia, but Brunei too. Malaysia is one of Brunei’s main trading partners. 20 percent of Brunei’s total import comes from Malaysia. About 40 percent of Brunei’s total food import comes from Malaysia. Malaysia is Brunei’s main source of food supply. When Malaysia’s fuel prices rise, we should expect their prices of all other goods will also go up. Naturally, we will also import their inflation. And that is bad news to our consumers.
All of the events that take place around the world including the current world’s food crisis cannot and should not be taken lightly.
Therefore, I think it is high time Brunei seriously thinks about its food production. Enough talk (actually I don’t hear any talk at all since HM’s titah during the Leg Co), act. Fast. Make it Brunei’s ‘emergency’ priority agenda. Set up an ‘agricultural’ fund if we must. At times like this, what the government should do in fact is to attract people to develop the agricultural industry. Call it a fast-track strategy or whatever. Get as many Bruneians or even non-Bruneians to produce food in our country. The government cannot afford to be choosy. Cut down those red tapes! (I tell you, somebody I know tried applying for some land to be developed 2 years ago. Until today, he has not heard from the Agriculture Department). Somebody please do something!
We shouldn’t think that all the events happening around us will pass on any time soon. It could go on and on. We really should use it as a catalyst to achieve our (long overdue) national food security objective. Increasing agricultural production should be the long-term solution for Brunei. We really cannot afford to just sit and wait and do nothing. Because whether you like it or not, for a country that has a high dependence on food import, these events affect us. High food price will increase the cost of living. Well, I guess I’ll leave you to your imagination to picture the effects of that.
Salaam.
The effect of this will not only be felt in Malaysia, but Brunei too. Malaysia is one of Brunei’s main trading partners. 20 percent of Brunei’s total import comes from Malaysia. About 40 percent of Brunei’s total food import comes from Malaysia. Malaysia is Brunei’s main source of food supply. When Malaysia’s fuel prices rise, we should expect their prices of all other goods will also go up. Naturally, we will also import their inflation. And that is bad news to our consumers.
All of the events that take place around the world including the current world’s food crisis cannot and should not be taken lightly.
Therefore, I think it is high time Brunei seriously thinks about its food production. Enough talk (actually I don’t hear any talk at all since HM’s titah during the Leg Co), act. Fast. Make it Brunei’s ‘emergency’ priority agenda. Set up an ‘agricultural’ fund if we must. At times like this, what the government should do in fact is to attract people to develop the agricultural industry. Call it a fast-track strategy or whatever. Get as many Bruneians or even non-Bruneians to produce food in our country. The government cannot afford to be choosy. Cut down those red tapes! (I tell you, somebody I know tried applying for some land to be developed 2 years ago. Until today, he has not heard from the Agriculture Department). Somebody please do something!
We shouldn’t think that all the events happening around us will pass on any time soon. It could go on and on. We really should use it as a catalyst to achieve our (long overdue) national food security objective. Increasing agricultural production should be the long-term solution for Brunei. We really cannot afford to just sit and wait and do nothing. Because whether you like it or not, for a country that has a high dependence on food import, these events affect us. High food price will increase the cost of living. Well, I guess I’ll leave you to your imagination to picture the effects of that.
Salaam.
Sunday 1 June 2008
Consumer Loyalty Switch
I received the email from RBA informing that they have achieved the e-ticketing target. So, what does that mean? Would they be able to improve their performance and sales? Because I can tell you that our loyalty to our national carrier has now been transferred to another, due to their poor service and sales strategy.
It happened about 4 weeks ago. When I received the (most) distressing news (ever in my whole life) from my sister, we wanted to fly home immediately, as in the very next day. It was on Saturday afternoon. I called RBA London and was answered by a machine saying that the office was now closed. I was shouting my heart out! This was Saturday afternoon in England! For goodness sake, why the BL**DY H*LL are you closed?!! Saturday in England is like THE day for business to make a lot of money.
Then we tried the RBA website. And guess what, the earliest travel date that I could book from their website was in the next 48 hours! I was gobsmacked! How ridiculous is this? RBA website is not some travel agent’s website trying to sell other airlines’ tickets. It is selling its own tickets, isn’t it? Why isn’t the website connected to their booking system? Honestly, I nearly fainted! Furthermore, the price it quoted me to travel in 3 days time (the earliest available seats) was double the normal ticket (about GBP1200 per person, if I’m not mistaken). Now where is the economics in that? Aren’t few cheaper seats better than empty seats? Charging higher fare for the last few seats is only justifiable and economically sound if there is no other airline travels to the same destination.
So, my husband calmed me down and suggested that I tried Singapore Airlines. Lo and behold! Within 5 minutes, the website gave me all the combinations of the travel dates that I could purchase, as early as the very next morning! And the prices…oh sweetness… (Thank You ALLAH!) were about GBP700 for an adult and about GBP500 for a child RETURN tickets inclusive of tax and services.
And YES, it was the double-decker Airbus 380. “WOW…” was the word uttered by my 2 daughters when they entered the aircraft.
And... RBA has lost in sales of 4 used-to-be loyal customers.
What I like even better is the fact that the SQ offered a straight, uninterrupted journey to/from Singapore, which is fantastic especially for my children. They get to have enough sleep. They sleep, we sleep. And therefore we wake up happy. Unlike RBA. We have to make a transit in Dubai, which honestly is the MOST annoying thing to do for travellers with children, especially the journey returning to London. Just imagine parents travelling with small children, who have to be woken up from their sleep- grumpy and tired, just to get off the aircraft and make a long walk along the Dubai airport just to board the aircraft again in 15 minutes. It is ridiculous!
And after sampling A380, with its fantastic uninterrupted, perfectly working personal screen in-flight entertainment [don’t even let me start on RBA’s in-flight entertainment! Which has to constantly be reset by the air-stewardess which results in my children getting angry and I (almost always) bang my head on the screens], my husband and I have promised ourselves that WHENEVER POSSIBLE, we will not use RBA for any long distance journey again. EVEN if there is a price difference. Because some things, such as COMFORT and peace of mind, are simply priceless.
I am no expert in airlines or even travel business but I’m sure it is all about satisfying customers. Plus the airline business is also in a perfect competition market. If RBA continues its shoddy sales strategy, funny flight route combinations and poor in-flight entertainment, I’m not surprised that it will be losing more and more of its customers.
Salaam.
It happened about 4 weeks ago. When I received the (most) distressing news (ever in my whole life) from my sister, we wanted to fly home immediately, as in the very next day. It was on Saturday afternoon. I called RBA London and was answered by a machine saying that the office was now closed. I was shouting my heart out! This was Saturday afternoon in England! For goodness sake, why the BL**DY H*LL are you closed?!! Saturday in England is like THE day for business to make a lot of money.
Then we tried the RBA website. And guess what, the earliest travel date that I could book from their website was in the next 48 hours! I was gobsmacked! How ridiculous is this? RBA website is not some travel agent’s website trying to sell other airlines’ tickets. It is selling its own tickets, isn’t it? Why isn’t the website connected to their booking system? Honestly, I nearly fainted! Furthermore, the price it quoted me to travel in 3 days time (the earliest available seats) was double the normal ticket (about GBP1200 per person, if I’m not mistaken). Now where is the economics in that? Aren’t few cheaper seats better than empty seats? Charging higher fare for the last few seats is only justifiable and economically sound if there is no other airline travels to the same destination.
So, my husband calmed me down and suggested that I tried Singapore Airlines. Lo and behold! Within 5 minutes, the website gave me all the combinations of the travel dates that I could purchase, as early as the very next morning! And the prices…oh sweetness… (Thank You ALLAH!) were about GBP700 for an adult and about GBP500 for a child RETURN tickets inclusive of tax and services.
And YES, it was the double-decker Airbus 380. “WOW…” was the word uttered by my 2 daughters when they entered the aircraft.
And... RBA has lost in sales of 4 used-to-be loyal customers.
What I like even better is the fact that the SQ offered a straight, uninterrupted journey to/from Singapore, which is fantastic especially for my children. They get to have enough sleep. They sleep, we sleep. And therefore we wake up happy. Unlike RBA. We have to make a transit in Dubai, which honestly is the MOST annoying thing to do for travellers with children, especially the journey returning to London. Just imagine parents travelling with small children, who have to be woken up from their sleep- grumpy and tired, just to get off the aircraft and make a long walk along the Dubai airport just to board the aircraft again in 15 minutes. It is ridiculous!
And after sampling A380, with its fantastic uninterrupted, perfectly working personal screen in-flight entertainment [don’t even let me start on RBA’s in-flight entertainment! Which has to constantly be reset by the air-stewardess which results in my children getting angry and I (almost always) bang my head on the screens], my husband and I have promised ourselves that WHENEVER POSSIBLE, we will not use RBA for any long distance journey again. EVEN if there is a price difference. Because some things, such as COMFORT and peace of mind, are simply priceless.
I am no expert in airlines or even travel business but I’m sure it is all about satisfying customers. Plus the airline business is also in a perfect competition market. If RBA continues its shoddy sales strategy, funny flight route combinations and poor in-flight entertainment, I’m not surprised that it will be losing more and more of its customers.
Salaam.
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