Tuesday 29 January 2008

The Dilemma of Teenage Pregnancies

I was reading an article in Slate regarding the declining rate of abortion in the US. There were a number of factors involved of course, including voluntary prevention through birth control schemes nevertheless, the debate continues (on legalising abortion). Interestingly however, it was reported that more and more Americans are now campaigning not against abortion, but against 'teen sex'.

Now, for a Muslim country, therein lies the dilemma. Sex education, to give or not to give? By giving sex education at schools, we're seen as conforming to the act (of pre-marital sex) which is forbidden in Islam. By not giving it, we are faced with social illnesses: abortion, sexual transmited diseases, (unwed) teenage pregnancies and worse of all, abandoning or killing innocent babies.

Whether we like it or not, we can't just turn blind eyes to the increasing trend of 'teen sex' in Brunei. No data, however is available to support this but from my conversations with a couple of doctors in Brunei confirms that the trend is worsening. I once asked one of my doctor friends, why is there no collaboration between the Health Ministry and the Ministry of the Religious Affairs (MRA). At that time, I thought by informing the MRA, at least the problems associated with 'single (teenage) parents' could be prevented and let the teens be responsible with their acts. And she replied that if they were to inform the MRA everytime an unwedded teen got pregnant or delivered a baby, then the worst might happened. How so? The pregnant teens (who were already scared) now would not have any place to go. What is feared that more and more illegal abortion would take place which would be harmful to the pregnant teens and worse, more and more innocent babies would be left abandoned. Even as it is, according to her, these pregnant girls only went to seek medical help at a later stage of their pregnancies which were often not without complications.

Even if the teens seek an early help, it may also not help solve the problems. Once they are found pregnant, obviously the morally right thing to do is to marry them off. But their future could also end there. They have to quit school. Without proper education and qualification, how do we expect them to lead a high quality life? How do we even expect them to provide for their children?

Now, back to sex education. I guess, to preach through the morals of religion alone is no longer sufficient. What is needed I think is a good and open communication between the teenagers and the educator (including you and me). The more these young people have their questions answered regarding contraception, relationships, sexual health and the responsibility of being a parent, I think will help them to make the decision in delaying any sexual relationship and hopefully to get to do the right thing of 'sex after marriage'.

No matter how and what approach we want to use, please let there be one. Pregnancies among the teens not only affect their lives but also affect the nation as a whole, especially for a country where human resource is valuable. If you read my previous post, unwanted teenage pregnancies could lead to a vicious circle which could lead to poverty and thus affecting the healthy development of the nation. It is a tough challenge of course, but somebody HAS to do it.

Salaam.

Sunday 20 January 2008

Ain't No My Business!

I must admit I was quite disheartened by comments made by some people who spoke to me and emailed me regarding my view on the fuel subsidy as well as my view on Bruneians’ lavish lifestyles. I however cannot help think how hypocrite these people are. Before this, they all wanted change. Brunei should do this, this, this and that. When the time to change is finally there, then they thought otherwise. So, tell me, what do YOU want? How do you expect the economy to change? By fate? When oil runs dry? Since there are so many of you who are clever enough to change the economy, then why aren’t we changing? Why is the GDP structure still the same since aeons?

Some said, so what if people drive big cars and buy expensive goods. Why should they think of tomorrow when they can enjoy today? And most of all it is none of MY bloody business to tell off people what and how to spend their income!

AND these are my answers to you:

Firstly, YES it is none of my concern what you people do with your money. It is YOUR life. BUT please stop complaining. You are the very people who keep on moaning that life is unfair. You are the first people who would object to real changes. If you think your future and that of your children’s are in good hands, then why should it bother you that the fuel subsidy will be lifted, or even if one day income tax will be imposed?

Secondly, it is clear you are missing my point. Nobody says that Bruneians should live shabbily or eat ‘nasi dengan kicap’. By all means, for those who think they can afford luxurious livestyles, then who’s stopping? If you must know, it is also equally harmful to the economy if nobody is spending (like what happened to Japan). My message is meant specifically to those who cannot afford such a lifestyle. Ukur baju di badan sendiri as the saying goes. Not everyone has a 4-digit monthly income, you know! And I have also seen many of those who are earning decent monthly incomes, who work as senior officers in government departments, cannot even pay their children’s school fees! WHY? Simply because they value their NOWS.

My aunt, who is a headmistress in one of a well known private primary school, told me that they were having a dilemma. She told me that there were HUNDREDS of parents who could not pay the school fees. She said she would understand if they worked in the private sector but these parents were government officers! I asked her what about the government’s education subsidy i.e. the monthly payment of what $120 per child (please correct me if I’m wrong)? Where did the money go? She said probably to ‘the car’, because apparently some parents bought new cars a few weeks before the fee was due. She said it was heart-breaking to make the decision of expelling children from school, just because their parents think cars are more important in their life. As much as the school wants to help the children, at the end of the day my aunt says, “it is not a charity”.


But, think of the consequences. It is not only the child who will be affected by such selfish act. The whole nation will do too! Now, I’m not going to put forward the argument that if you think you can’t afford to pay the private school’s fee, then the children should be sent to the government schools (while education is still free!), because as a parent myself, I know that I want the BEST for my children. But, please I implore, PAY their fees! And I'm also NOT patronising the quality of the government's schools. I am, after all, a product of one. (Hmm.. perhaps another blog entry for this topic).

Now, again back to the fuel subsidy. I ask myself, is it really fair for the government to reduce the subsidy now? When prices of goods are on the rise? When everyone is feeling the heat? When, even the global economy looks gloomy?

Well, my answer is still YES. My views still stand. I still think it is still a waste for the government to spend more and more to subsidise the prices of car fuel. As the oil price goes up, the amount of subsidy will also go up. I strongly agree with the comment made by 55 in my last post. If and when the subsidy (of any kind) is reduced, then some sort of concession system must be set up to help those who truly deserve the subsidy. Subsidy in economics is after all, an instrument to distribute income equally. It is NOT meant for everyone. Those who are earning above a certain level (usually above the minimum) let alone those who have hefty incomes, do not deserve to receive such subsidy especially when no income tax is imposed.

Finally, my profession is related with policy-making. So, I believe all of the problems associated with the economy, WILL be my concern.

Anyway, I think I understand that the resistance to the policy change is not caused simply by people not wanting to change (right?). I guess, the problem is related with what economists say as 'asymmetric information'. The public do not know what to expect. Are there any supporting policies to help remedy the situation which is expected to have negative effects? And which government agencies will be responsible in providing the supporting policies? How big is this subsidy reduction? And so on. I myself, am anxious to find the answers. I think it would be ridiculous if no one is doing anything to help mitigate the effects.

I guess that's all I will say for now. In any case, this blog is meant for those who are interested in economics and its workings without the boring mathematical equations. As I said in my first post, my views may be right, but most often they will probably be wrong.

Salaam.

Wednesday 16 January 2008

Fuel Subsidy, Again.

I'm quite disappointed with the comments made by the acting Chairman of BEDB. As an economist and an entrepreneur, it is actually the least I expected from him. A few days ago he did mention that Brunei should stand up and face the economic challenges and be prepared to changes and be more adaptable to changes. Well, this is a challenge! If Bruneians can face this challenge, then let's bring the others...

First of all, he didn't seem to acknowledge that car fuel, at times when global prices are rising, is not a necessity. True, people's lives will be affected as the cost of driving a car will go up due to a reduction in subsidy and it will also affect the prices of goods. But I believe people will react by economising not only the use of their cars but also their day to day purchases down to the level of necessity. It would certainly be a different matter, if the government were to reduce the level of subsidy on electricity (but again Bruneians DO NOT economise their electricity usage).

Now, if the government were to decide to go ahead with the slashing of the fuel subsidy, the relavant government agencies should come forward to alleviate the effects on the lives of Bruneians. Firstly, this is when Price Control should be THE active policy in regulating the prices of necessities. Price ceilings of goods which are deemed staple MUST be worked out NOW so that sellers do not take advantage of the increasing fuel price.

Secondly, the Ministry of Education and/or the Ministry of Communication for instance, should come forward in helping parents transporting their children to school. School buses have to be provided and preferably privatised. This will not only directly help the people but also can help boost the transportation industry.

According to the Minister of Energy, about B$500 million was spent on the fuel subsidy in 2005. Again, that's A LOT! The money could be spent on other productive activities including in providing the resources for the above-mentioned activities. But the one use that can directly help the weak private sector and perhaps nurture new entrepreneurial ideas is to use it as SEED MONEY. Instead of spending millions making Bruneians lazy, why not use a fraction of the money making lots of Brunei entrepreneurs. Now BEDB could play a big role here as the agency responsible in giving seed money to the potential entrepreneurs.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that in 'every challenge there lies an opportunity' as there must always be 'a blessing in disguise'. This should be the slogan to any good entrepreneur. And I also wonder why should Bruneians be insulated from the effects of the global forces as I think it is unhealthy to the development of a resilient economy and a nation as a whole. It is high time, Bruneians learn to think rationally and start prioritising their lives. Not only that, I also think that a shock is probably what this sleepy country needs to revitalise its weak economy.

Salaam.


"The basic difference between an ordinary man and a warrior is that a warrior takes everything as a challenge while an ordinary man takes everything either as a blessing or a curse." (Carlos Casteneda)
P.S. If you read the news, the US economy is heading more and more towards a recession. A gloomy sign to the global economy. Now, that's a BIG challenge!

Sunday 13 January 2008

YES To Realistic Fuel Prices

Many people may disagree with me, but I think after so many years, finally someone is thinking with a right mind!

If you read my previous post on car fuel, you would know that the prices of car fuel in Brunei are perhaps the cheapest in the world. It is not without its cost. And the cost is obviously borned by the government in terms of subsidy (for 1 litre of diesel, the government is paying about 80cents and 60cents for a litre of Premium 97). That is A LOT!

Many of you would, by now are probably thinking, 'So What? Oil Price is soaring high now, surely the government's coffer is filling and why not share with the people?' . Well, first of all, oil and fuel are 2 different things. The car fuel's prices depends on the oil prices. When oil price goes up, the fuel price also goes up or the cost of producing fuel goes up. The price that we pay however is way below the cost of production. That means the government has to spend more on subsidy to ensure the fuel prices we pay in Brunei stay the same.

Secondly, yes it is true that the increase in oil price would definitely increase the government's revenue, but the money could be spent on other productive things which would have positive economic long-term impact on the country. Life is, after all, not all about cars! And, I believe it is also the time that the government increases its saving (and investment) for Brunei's future generation. in order to maintain our standard of living.

Thirdly, I honestly think that it is high time that the Bruneians live in a real world. By having realistic fuel prices will definitely awaken many people. The last previous posts, I wrote about 'rentier mentality'. As a result, many Bruneians take things for granted. Ever since Brunei started to export oil, Brunei has become a 'welfare state' up to the point that the people do not seem even know how to stand on their own feet! The government becomes the soul provider and this causes Brunei economy to stand still. Worse, people endlessly complain that the government is not doing enough. People want MORE, but never GIVE back!

Look at Norway, the third largest oil producer in the world. Do you know how much their fuel costs? The last I check, it was about US$7 per gallon. With the current US rate, that's about B$2.40 per litre! The government imposes higher tax, at times when oil price goes up, to reduce consumption. And their population of about 4.5 million use cheap hydro energy power! Well, where they have 'hydro power', I think Brunei should seriously be looking at solar energy as an alternative. And, now is a GOOD time for Brunei to seriously invest in some solar power.

OK. If you are still not convinced that a reduction in fuel subsidy (an increase in the fuel price) will do Brunei a greater good, I also believe that other positive impacts will also result.

First, I think the transportation industry may stand a good chance to benefit from such policy. People may start using buses and taxis. If you are still asking whether or not Bruneians are ready to take such dramatic actions (dramatic only in Brunei as it is perfectly normal for people to use public transportation abroad) well of course the answer would be NO. No one is ready to change their comfortable lifestyle. But an improved transportation industry will create more employments, improve services and most of all, can help reduce pollution.

Second, the price of cars will go down. The rule of demand and supply will apply. As demand for cars go down, price will follow.

Third, people will (hopefully) think twice of buying luxurious cars for the sake of showing-off and instead will spend the money on other important matters in life :)

Finally, I also think that it will help foster a stronger family relationship and communication. People, especially family will economise the use of cars. Gone will be foreign drivers. Parents will collect their own children. Husbands and wives will probably share the same car. As a result, communication improves and LOVE grows.....hehehe.

Anyway, these all are just my thoughts. I will probably change my mind when I'm back in Brunei haha. But I still strongly feel that more positive effects will come out of a policy change in the fuel subsidy. Proper research on the impacts obviously are called for. I do however hope it WILL be implemented.

Salaam.

P.S I am still sure that many of you are saying that 'Other prices have gone up too!'. Well, I say 'Welcome to the Real World.....'.

Sunday 6 January 2008

Aren't We a Flashing Nation?

It was quite amusing to find the news in Brudirect today. The first main news was about the raid in the hotel, the second was about religious school adopting a system of something, the third was about another irresponsible Bruneian and look! the fourth main news was the announcement of the open tender for 2-digit license plate..Wow! LOL

This, to me just shows how 'flashing' the Bruneians are. The shorter and the smaller your car plate numbers, the more 'VIP' you are. So, people (hoping to be VIPs) are willing to pay loads just to get their so called 'favourite or lucky' numbers. Baah!

I'm actually quite sad that this is the lifestyle adopted by a great number of Bruneians. Big (and expensive) flashy cars. The latest mobile phones. The last time they played golf (which would always be the last weekend). The biggest flat screen tvs. The most beads (manik) on the baju kurung (haha). And the list goes on. It is like people seem to think that they are judged by what they use or wear. (Maybe some people do actually judge by those criteria. What a pity!).

To tell you the truth, it is really quite uncomfortable to be around these types of people (who are almost everywhere in Brunei). Especially if your mobile phone is about 2 years old, you wear just a baju kurung, your car is just another Toyota and you don't play golf!. At the same time however it is also very irritating when all they talk about are the latest mobile phones or their handicap (what?! handicap?! are they 'special' or something?) or the latest car they just bought. Wow! The world must be perfect for these people despite the fact that their latest credit card bills would probably be almost reaching the limit, the headmasters of their children's schools are scratching their heads waiting for the school fee payments (which I can tell you LOADS!) and their disposable income is probably less than 30% of their gross income. Worse, there is no saving for their children's future!

And sadly, it is not only me who is pitying our fellow Bruneians, the foreigners too. When we went back to Brunei sometime last year, we (my hubby and I) decided that it was time to replace our ageing mobile phones (the girl gave me a sly smile when I asked if I could use 3G with that phone. Haha THAT old!). So while the Filipino lady was preparing our phones I asked her how many people buy phones each day. And she said 'quite many'. And I asked her, 'paid by cash or using one of those installments offered by the banks i.e. hutang lah?'. And she gave me this smile (that translates 'are you kidding? cash?). And I asked how many? She said 'quite many'. Then she said she didn't understand why people wanted to put themselves into debt just for a mobile phone. I said, don't let your boss hear you saying that..hahaha.

A couple of times, I must admit my husband and I were thinking of buying one of those luxurious cars. Why not? We can afford it, can't we?

Well..after 1 night sleep we scratched off that thought. Why? First, a car is NOT an asset, it is a LIABILITY..the first 2 years of driving..wow..fantastic...but then...after that...I'm sure many of you would love to share the cost of maintaining such cars. Second, we haven't got a house of our own. Until we do..then we say FORGET it!. Finally, there's our children's education funds. If our children are brilliant then, perhaps some scholarships would be granted. But you never know what will happen in the future.

I'm actually quite worried that this kind of 'rich and flashy' lifestyle is adopted not only by the middle-income earners but also the lower-income earners. The desire to have luxurious items is probably the main culprit why many Bruneians have become 'poor'. If you were to measure the level of poverty based on the disposable income, I am sure it will be staggering. How to amend this? A simple answer from an economist would probably through the good old tax. But I'm sure nobody wants that (and I am also risking my neck suggesting it hahaha!). But I think some kind of awareness campaign against debt should be introduced where the message has to be strong and the campaign done rigorously.

Oh well..it's a beautiful Sunday morning here in England and we need to do some grocery shopping. My only hope (more of a wishful thinking) is that Bruneians will change. I'd honestly hate to come back to the same 'flashy' nation.

Salaam.