Sunday 13 January 2008

YES To Realistic Fuel Prices

Many people may disagree with me, but I think after so many years, finally someone is thinking with a right mind!

If you read my previous post on car fuel, you would know that the prices of car fuel in Brunei are perhaps the cheapest in the world. It is not without its cost. And the cost is obviously borned by the government in terms of subsidy (for 1 litre of diesel, the government is paying about 80cents and 60cents for a litre of Premium 97). That is A LOT!

Many of you would, by now are probably thinking, 'So What? Oil Price is soaring high now, surely the government's coffer is filling and why not share with the people?' . Well, first of all, oil and fuel are 2 different things. The car fuel's prices depends on the oil prices. When oil price goes up, the fuel price also goes up or the cost of producing fuel goes up. The price that we pay however is way below the cost of production. That means the government has to spend more on subsidy to ensure the fuel prices we pay in Brunei stay the same.

Secondly, yes it is true that the increase in oil price would definitely increase the government's revenue, but the money could be spent on other productive things which would have positive economic long-term impact on the country. Life is, after all, not all about cars! And, I believe it is also the time that the government increases its saving (and investment) for Brunei's future generation. in order to maintain our standard of living.

Thirdly, I honestly think that it is high time that the Bruneians live in a real world. By having realistic fuel prices will definitely awaken many people. The last previous posts, I wrote about 'rentier mentality'. As a result, many Bruneians take things for granted. Ever since Brunei started to export oil, Brunei has become a 'welfare state' up to the point that the people do not seem even know how to stand on their own feet! The government becomes the soul provider and this causes Brunei economy to stand still. Worse, people endlessly complain that the government is not doing enough. People want MORE, but never GIVE back!

Look at Norway, the third largest oil producer in the world. Do you know how much their fuel costs? The last I check, it was about US$7 per gallon. With the current US rate, that's about B$2.40 per litre! The government imposes higher tax, at times when oil price goes up, to reduce consumption. And their population of about 4.5 million use cheap hydro energy power! Well, where they have 'hydro power', I think Brunei should seriously be looking at solar energy as an alternative. And, now is a GOOD time for Brunei to seriously invest in some solar power.

OK. If you are still not convinced that a reduction in fuel subsidy (an increase in the fuel price) will do Brunei a greater good, I also believe that other positive impacts will also result.

First, I think the transportation industry may stand a good chance to benefit from such policy. People may start using buses and taxis. If you are still asking whether or not Bruneians are ready to take such dramatic actions (dramatic only in Brunei as it is perfectly normal for people to use public transportation abroad) well of course the answer would be NO. No one is ready to change their comfortable lifestyle. But an improved transportation industry will create more employments, improve services and most of all, can help reduce pollution.

Second, the price of cars will go down. The rule of demand and supply will apply. As demand for cars go down, price will follow.

Third, people will (hopefully) think twice of buying luxurious cars for the sake of showing-off and instead will spend the money on other important matters in life :)

Finally, I also think that it will help foster a stronger family relationship and communication. People, especially family will economise the use of cars. Gone will be foreign drivers. Parents will collect their own children. Husbands and wives will probably share the same car. As a result, communication improves and LOVE grows.....hehehe.

Anyway, these all are just my thoughts. I will probably change my mind when I'm back in Brunei haha. But I still strongly feel that more positive effects will come out of a policy change in the fuel subsidy. Proper research on the impacts obviously are called for. I do however hope it WILL be implemented.

Salaam.

P.S I am still sure that many of you are saying that 'Other prices have gone up too!'. Well, I say 'Welcome to the Real World.....'.

9 comments:

55 said...

Would like to correct you with regards to fuel production in Brunei. We do produce petrol and diesels at our refinery in Seria but production capacity are enough for local consumption only. Our ron97 are of premium quality though diesel is high in sulphur due to the grade of our local crude oil.

Other oil based products such as motor-oils are imported from Singapore, the regional's production centre for such petroleum products.

And yes, Bruneians are living in such comfortable lifestyles, whenever a price hike happens, they COMPLAIN! Sadly they don't see the correlation of basic necessities to the price of oil (i.e. price of transporting goods) Yet again, what they fail to realize, our tariff rates for electricity, water and the likes were last revised in the 50s, hence cheap everything.

ROGUE ECONOMIST said...

Thanks 55 for the information! I suspected we produced some fuel (because it would be ridiculous if we don't!). So, the price that consumers pay in Brunei is way below the cost of production. Now I see the clear picture!
I will re-word my paragraph later, incase it may cause confusion. Anyway, thanks again!

G-`FerRo said...

Despite the oil price soaring to the USD100/barrel ... yet the USD is at its low of 1.4ish ...

.... which I think is not profitable compared to when oil was at USD90/barrel ... but USD was above 1.6 ...

even now ... not many people are fortunate enough to have "import" drivers ...

.. parents do still drive their kids to n fro .... and in turn .. affects .. the productive working hours ... which in today's context .. seems to be very hard to avoid ...

.. one of the many solutions could be to synchronize the working hours with the schooling hours....

.. and yeap ... changing the people mindset is quite a challenge ...

... one way we can do it is perhaps ... is to educate the young ones ... as early as possible in their childhood years ... teachers ... parents ... can play their own role ...

.. instead of having those flashy mobile for example .. why not just get those simple sms and call only mobile ... since the in-built camera.. organizers ... or watsoever are hardly use anyway ...

tell me who used up all of their functions? or know how to access 'em all...? only a tiny fractions ....

hmmm.. I've type so much ... better stop .... might digress to other subject... like retirement saving and such ... so better not continue ...

Anonymous said...

It is certainly difficult to change the mindset of most Bruneians unless they have lived abroad with a minimum salary to survive monthly or fortnightly. I've tried inculcating the practice of 'savings and not wasting' in my own siblings to help our parents save their money, but because I live abroad most months of the year does not help. They tend to regress to old habits of spending unnecessarily. It doesn't help when they have their own mind and won't listen to daddy and mommy, except this garang ol' sister. How else can we educate the young ones the value of saving for the future? I really am worried about the younger generation's priority in Brunei. Flashy cars a.k.a dream cars? Trendy clothes? The next in-thing, which usually is a mobile phone? Don't they realise that flashy cars are liabilities? Fortunately, I learnt my own lesson, albeit the hard way. Now, I am happy to drive a Daihatsu that serves me well. Most importantly, I have a savings accounts stashed somewhere for rainy days.

Anonymous said...

I enjoy driving my flashy car...not for the sake of showing off...but, because i can afford it...and i too have a savings accounts stashed somewhere for rainy days, for my retirement lifestyles, for entertainment, etc....ermmm...what can i do?
am not going to drive a toyota, when i can afford a merc...help..help

Anonymous said...

yes! if one can drive a merc or bmw etc etc...be it...others need to save then...am sure if they have enough money, they too would want to drive a flashy car!

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMyJBjuJhn.o&refer=home

Stockpiling, subsidies and price controls do nothing to rein in excess demand in Asia's fast-growing economies, which is already pushing up food and energy costs worldwide. The G-7 in Tokyo said governments should avoid steps to artificially lower energy prices.
"There is no incentive for people to cut down on the consumption of oil or other commodities because they're not feeling the pinch," says Bill Belchere, an economist at
Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. "When governments resort to stockpiling, that creates extra demand and prices will only keep rising."

Anonymous said...

I would like to point out your second point of the consequences should the fuel subsidy being reduced. I doubt that this causes a significant impact on the prices of cars in our market, knowing that all the cars are imported and our market for cars are technically negligible compared to that of the world market. We know that prices of cars are mainly determined by the producers (assuming our gov't maintain their import duties on cars) and to sum all these, a downfall in demand for cars in Brunei alone may not possibly change the prices at all. In Economics context, the supply for cars in Brunei can be perceived as relatively inelastic.

Just thought I'd add this in so that fellow readers are not confused with mechanism of economics :)

ROGUE ECONOMIST said...

But sellers in Brunei could still reduce their On The Road Price through their own reduction of profit margin and/or in terms of service war. You will be surprised if you know how much they mark up their prices.