I have not read Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035) nor the new National Development Plan (Rancangan Kemajuan Negara - RKN), which for some reason was not called the ninth. Hence, I cannot really make a lot of comments on the contents of these 2 national books. For everyone’s benefits, there are 3 main objectives to achieve Brunei Vision 2035 and these are:
1) Brunei to be recognized as a highly educated and skilled people;
2) To have a quality of life among 10 top nations in the world; and
3) To be among the top 10 GDP per capita income nations in the world.
I have found some interesting reads regarding Wawasan 2035 including a presentation made by Dr Richard Leete at the Brunei Forum in Singapore and an article featured in the economist.
The most interesting paper I came across however was a paper by Brunei’s National Development Party which can be found here. The 17 page paper, written in malay, highlights a few weaknesses of the new RKN and gives some proposals for improvements. Among the key points are (pardon my poor translation):
1) The new RKN lacks a comprehensive planning structure: For instance it does not show the specific sectors to be developed and their projected contribution to the economic growth. It also does not address the demand and supply aspects of economic development which will give a more realistic picture;
2) The use of GDP per-capita as the measurement of quality of life will not give a true picture. The GDP per-capita is not a measure of income equality. A greater income equality will ensure a higher quality of life. The Plan however does not address the issue of income equality;
3) The lack of detailed data to support some of the strategy such as the reduction of foreign labour dependence;
4) The lack of strategies to achieve some of the human resource development objectives;
5) The Plan does not explain the method of the calculation of the multiplier effect, which will be used as the basis of project selection.
From my point of view, those points are valid, economically sound and definitely not some mere criticism. What they have raised in that paper are very important and should be taken seriously by the relevant policy-makers in ensuring the successful implementation of the current and any future RKN.
Salaam.
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Thanks for the link to the National Development Party's document. I am able to read it.
In one part, the logic of NDP argument, with all due respect, is rather circular. Many of its statements are repetitive. The document lacks constructive/real solution. It reads like Economics 101 proposal. I am sorry for being blunt.
I am not too clear what they meant by "lack of comprehensive planning structure". That's a big word. What does it mean, precisely?
Tackling income inequality in Brunei? Are they suggesting Brunei should impose progressive income tax and VAT? And then use proceeds from such taxes to redistribute income? Implicitly, are they suggesting Brunei should abolish subsidies on gasoline, rice, energy, and all the price control that have benefited the general population so far (including the poor)? Or do they mean government projects should be aimed at benefiting the poor only? Do they know that infrastructures so far benefit the poor too? Or do they mean there should be cash transfer to the poor? But then, what about all those zakat and assistance by the Yayasan? Have they been effective to make the poor work harder or not? Or they have simply made the poor relying more on cash handouts? In other words, can NDP be more specific in their criticism?
Reducing dependence on foreign labour? C'mon, let's be realistic. Do they think Brunei can be self sufficient when it comes to labour needs? Look at the GCC economies. Have they relied less on foreign labour now? No. Let's think, if Brunei economy has to grow much faster where do they think skills (labour inputs) should be sourced when local skills are so acutely scarce? Try to remove all the foreign labours, then let's calculate the ratios of local doctors, engineers, accountants, economists, teachers, lecturers, to population. Suddenly the ratios will turn worse, I believe. Do this exercise and then NDP will realize that Brunei needs and will always need foreign skills. In fact, let me be honest, the more skills the better it will be for Brunei. Don't go to far to look. Just observe Singapore and Hongkong and Dubai and Qatar and Kuwait and Bahrain. Foreign skills are instrumental in bringing out growth and development.
To my reading, the simplest strategies to HRD have been outlined everywhere, including in that planning book: simplify bureaucracy, increase productivity by working harder, reduce the size of public sector and increase the size of private sector, send more people to universities overseas, and don't be choosy when it comes to jobs. Create enough demand for jobs because demand will create its own supply of skills. Anything new?
Lastly, has NDP seen any planning document in any country that contains "technical appendix" at the back that explains how calculation is done? I like their naive suggestion but let's be realistic: a planning document is not a textbook. It's a policy document containing policy statements and political objectives. All details are commonly left behind in the drawing board.
Now having said all these, what Brunei needs is implementation, implementation and implementation. My suggestion to their proposal: perhaps NDP can come up with concrete proposals, for examples: on how improve implementation rate; on how to design work flows to improve productivity; on how to design punishment system so people work harder?
Do you know if those texts (Wawasan 2035 or RKN) are available on the net? Would really like to read them. Thank you in advance.
you may be interested in the following paper about the Wawasan...
What Does Brunei Teach Us About Using Human Development Index Rankings as a Policy Tool?
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395661
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