Road to Diversification

This is the kind of news that I love to read in the morning. Hopefully this too.

Salaam.

Land Dilemma

I found an interesting article by Brunei’s National Development Party on the issue of land ownership (click here) which reminds me of a discussion I had with a colleague from the Land Department.

I am no expert in the whole land issue/policy but I do not think the objective of ensuring the local ownership of land has been successfully met, in fact I think it actually has backfired. True, it is a sensitive issue. And for that precise reason, it needs a special attention. The Land Code 1909 really is too outdated, and I do think it deserves some amendments that can accommodate the needs of a new century and most of all the needs of the current economy and its future development without compromising the ‘rightful’ ownership. However for now, I reserve further comments.

Salaam.

National Development Plans: Summary1

I am going to share with you the finding of a little exercise I did at the beginning of my research. After reading all of Brunei’s National Development Plans, cover to cover, I made a matrix (which I must say is not an easy exercise!) of each RKN/NDP’s objectives, strategies, finance allocations and the targeted economic projects/industries to be developed.

Today, I am going to show you the list of targeted industries/projects beginning from the third National Development Plan (as the first two mere talked about physical infrastructure). The aim of this is to sort of reflect, remind ourselves and see how far we have gone to achieve any of the targeted projects. If we have, how successful was it? If we haven’t then the question we should ask is why? (Unfortunately I do not have the data to measure the achievements).

NOTE: ALL of these can be found in the published National Development Plans!

(Apology for the untidy presentation and BEST VIEWED using FireFox!)

3rd NDP (1975-79)
1. Rice production
2. Agriculture: sweet corn, yellow beans and high protein cattle grass.
3. Livestock: meat and eggs.
4. Castor oil plant
5. Tree crops: pineapple plantations and palm oil estates
6. Fisheries: marine fish
7. Forestry: establishment of a Kraft Pulp Paper Mill and a timber complex.
8. Other mineral resources: development of gravel in Temburong, silica sand in Tutong and coastal terrace clay and ceramic clay in Jerudong.
9. Tourism: Construction of hotels.
10. Oil and gas: Ammonia and Urea plants
Agro based industry: sago processing plant

4th NDP (1980-84)
1) Rice production
2) Livestock production: goat farm, cattle breeding.
3) Uplands crop: maize, soya beans, cowpeas for animal feeds
4) Fisheries: fresh water fish
5) Forestry: timber production
6) Other minerals: Silica land in Tutong (with reserves of 20 million tons), sand mining and pottery/tile industry based on coastal terrace clay and ceramic clay
7) Agro industries: vegetable oil, castor oil, animal feed, leather works, oil-palm, fruit juice and puree factory, orchard growing for export, coconut oil extraction and fibre factory

5th NDP (1986-90)
1) Agriculture and livestock industry:
• Rice, Tropical Fruits, Vegetables, Cattle, buffalo and goat, Chicken and Eggs
2) Fisheries:
• Marine fish, Aquaculture: freshwater and brackish water, Fish meal
3) Forestry:
• Using swamp forest product for plywood, Fibre-board factory using woodchips from the sawmill factories
4) Manufacturing:
• Food processing: canning and packaging,
• Furniture
• Potteries and Tiles
• Textiles: high value added types of garments using modern and traditional technologies
• Cement factory to grind imported clinker
• Precast concrete factory
• Chemicals and dyes
• Plywood and Wood paneling
• Glass from silica sands in Tutong

5) Tertiary Industry: Banking and finance, Insurance, Maintenance services

6) Financial Centre
7) Trade Centre
8) High value-added, non-labour intensive industries
9) Bio industry

6th NDP (1991-1995)
1) Industry
• Industrial sites to be developed in 3 districts
• Identified industries are:
o Mini steel plant
o Light-weight aggregate
o Dairy milk
o Glass
o Pre-cast
2) Agriculture:
o Rice
o Hydrophonic vegetables
o Eggs and poultry
o Local fruits and production of seedlings
o Horticulture
o Buffaloes and goats

3) Forestry: Rattan plantation for furniture industry
4) Fisheries: Marine fish

7th NDP (1996-2000)
1) Oil sector:
• Plan to develop the oil and gas industry into downstream activities including:
i. Ammonia/Urea
ii. Methanol
iii. Export Oriented Refinery
iv. Other Petrochemical such as plastics and paints

2) Primary Sector:
• To produce 7% of rice requirements;
• To maintain the self-sufficiency level of egg production;
• To meet 70% of local chicken needs;
• Increase production of vegetables, plants and ornaments and livestocks;
• Aquaculture projects tp produce high values species for export

8th NDP (2001-2005)
1) Oil and gas sector:
• Oil and gas downstream activities

2) Industry
• Value-added industry such as food processing
• Export specialized services such as engineering, Islamic banking, law, economy, accounting, architecture and estate management.
• Manufacturing: Construction materials and equipment, garment and furniture.

3) Primary Sector
• Agriculture targets:
 3% of rice requirement
 To meet 94% of vegetable needs
 To meet 47% self-sufficiency in fruit production.
 Increase production of ornamentals horticulture industry.
• Livestock industry:
• Broiler industry to meet 100% self-sufficiency
• Poultry production to maintain 100% self sufficiency level.

• Fishery sector:
• Production of rostris prawn
• Production of other fish species such as mud crab, golden snapper and barramundi cod.

4) Tourism and Trade
• Develop more eco-tourism destinations.
• Promotion of cottage industry such as:
• Traditional food, Weaved cloths, Rattan furniture, Plaited products, Malay Cap, Sculptures and carving, Woodwork, Silverware, Brassware, Malay dagger, Boats
5) Banking, Finance and Insurance
• To become an international financial centre through BIFC

6) Other promoted sectors:
• ICT for k-ekonomy; Transhipment activities.

Personally, I believe there is nothing wrong for us to come up with ‘new ideas’ for new projects each year, but we need to supply our ‘ideas’ (especially the fancy ones) with some strategies and plan of execution I suppose. Otherwise, it will just be another list in the non-exhaustive yet-to-be-achieved projects.

I have done the basic dirty work of compiling this list. For anyone out there who is thinking of pursuing a Masters degree and/or a PhD, I hope this is of some use to you. (Panjang amal). This could be used as a basis of developing a research question, I think.

Salaam.

Road to Diversification

There has been another ‘exciting’ development in Brunei’s quest to diversify its economy (or I hope it is what we are doing), and that is Brunei wishes to be the ‘city in the garden’. Is this just a mere statement or is this a real project with plans and strategies already being formulated? If it is a real project, I would love to know and maybe contribute ideas but if it isn’t, then Brunei better do something about it because you can’t just announce to the world that you want to be something and not do it and expect the world to forget.

The thing about us in Brunei is that we love to make fancy headlines: ‘halal branding’, ‘heart of Borneo’, 'Kingdom of Unexpected Treasures', ‘service hub (ShuTT)’, ‘ICT park’, ‘offshore financial centre’, ‘Brunei Inc. (or something like that)’, just to name a few. Please don’t take me wrong, I’m not saying that we shouldn’t do this or we cannot dream big but I have yet to see the end products.

I think the main reason why we have not achieved anything in relation to these ‘fancy’ projects or actually ANY project is that there is a lack of detailed plan and strategies. Even if there is one, it is never shared with the public let alone debated. Even worse it is sometimes not even shared among the relevant agencies. As a result the public, including the private sector, do not understand, never mind contribute, and therefore the project is not appreciated and supported.

Take for example ‘halal branding’. Seriously, I don’t fully understand what is it that we want to do? What is our objective? Can it create massive employment? Can it increase food production? How much resources are we devoting? What is our problem? Why does it take so long? How can we help? Do we mean to say that ‘Brunei Halal’ is better that ‘Malaysia Halal’ or ‘Thailand Halal’? Because believe me, when I go to a shop abroad I only look for ‘Halal’ products. Taste and packaging play a more important role in my decision to buy a particular halal product.

I am no expert but I think it is high time that Brunei goes to the basic of development and economic diversification. Instead of devoting our energy and resources to fancy projects, wouldn’t it be better to concentrate in the actual production? I for one want to hear plans for massive agricultural production or fishery or any kind of manufacturing. It sounds boring but it is what we most need to survive. Do remember that we only have 25 years to turn our economy around. And that is not a very long time.

Salaam.

Boost Agricultural Production A.S.A.P

Today Malaysia announced the increase in fuel prices, lifting their price ceiling in the move to reduce government subsidy. It is quite shocking actually. I didn’t expect the price increase would be ‘that’ much. (Note: for a very interesting thought about this by Dr Mahathir, click here).

The effect of this will not only be felt in Malaysia, but Brunei too. Malaysia is one of Brunei’s main trading partners. 20 percent of Brunei’s total import comes from Malaysia. About 40 percent of Brunei’s total food import comes from Malaysia. Malaysia is Brunei’s main source of food supply. When Malaysia’s fuel prices rise, we should expect their prices of all other goods will also go up. Naturally, we will also import their inflation. And that is bad news to our consumers.

All of the events that take place around the world including the current world’s food crisis cannot and should not be taken lightly.

Therefore, I think it is high time Brunei seriously thinks about its food production. Enough talk (actually I don’t hear any talk at all since HM’s titah during the Leg Co), act. Fast. Make it Brunei’s ‘emergency’ priority agenda. Set up an ‘agricultural’ fund if we must. At times like this, what the government should do in fact is to attract people to develop the agricultural industry. Call it a fast-track strategy or whatever. Get as many Bruneians or even non-Bruneians to produce food in our country. The government cannot afford to be choosy. Cut down those red tapes! (I tell you, somebody I know tried applying for some land to be developed 2 years ago. Until today, he has not heard from the Agriculture Department). Somebody please do something!

We shouldn’t think that all the events happening around us will pass on any time soon. It could go on and on. We really should use it as a catalyst to achieve our (long overdue) national food security objective. Increasing agricultural production should be the long-term solution for Brunei. We really cannot afford to just sit and wait and do nothing. Because whether you like it or not, for a country that has a high dependence on food import, these events affect us. High food price will increase the cost of living. Well, I guess I’ll leave you to your imagination to picture the effects of that.

Salaam.

Rejuvenate Brunei's GLCs

What interests me the most, while browsing the World Trade Policy Review of Brunei, is this bit of information:

(Per cent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Saving and investment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gross national savings 47.2 48.6 51.4 59.1 62.4
Gross domestic investment 21.3 15.1 13.5 11.4 10.4
Savings-investment gap 26.0 33.6 37.9 47.8 52.1

(sorry, I'm no good in pasting the Table. For the full set click here and I refer to Table 1.2)

The saving-investment gap is huge! And the gap is because there is too much saving and too little investment (which isn’t usually the case in many countries). Now, if you’re an economics student and using Year 1 Macroeconomics, you will know that this excessive saving means there is a capital account surplus which could lead to a glut in the economy which eventually could lead to a recession.

Now, my question is why oh why are we acting as if we do not have enough capital to move the economy? To be specific, we are acting as if we’re having a gap that is caused by too little saving and therefore needs an external financing i.e. the FDI. And I have the impression that we seem to be helpless without the FDI. Now, I’m not saying that FDI is not important and I’m sure I don’t have to enumerate the reasons why we need an FDI. What I’m trying to say is that, given the availability of excessive domestic capital, it is high time that Brunei should also place the importance of the domestic investment in the effort to diversify the economy.

Despite the excessive capital however, the private sector in Brunei is weak, both in terms of resources and expertise, to undertake any major domestic investment. Therefore it is imperative (and equally inevitable) for the government sector to assist the private sector development, in particular, to do the investing.

To tell you the truth, at the beginning I wanted to propose the establishments of government-linked companies (GLCs) the likes of Singapore, but then I remembered, we DO have GLCs! Unfortunately for some reasons our GLCs are very quiet (if not, I wouldn’t have forgotten hehe) and do not appear to be spearheading the investment efforts.

I’m sure by now, many of you will be saying that Brunei’s GLCs won’t work because their managers and Board of Directors are civil servants who lack business acumen, risk-averse, slow in decision-making and their investments mainly political as opposed to commercially motivated. TRUE! And for this precise reason, I believe we need to rejuvenate our GLCs by removing (or perhaps reducing) the number of civil servants in the companies. Let’s put true entrepreneurs and real managers. If we can’t find locals then for the love of Brunei, hire (the best money can buy) foreign experts! Because the lack of competent local human resource to drive the economy is our main problem in the first place (which is nothing to be ashamed of, given our small population and the current nature of our economy, however this does not mean that Brunei’s HR should forever be at the current state) and I don't see anything wrong in hiring foreign talents. Nevertheless, we should be using Singapore as an example. Singapore’s phenomenal economic growth is, after all, the result of its strategy of ‘state capitalism’.


Let’s face the fact, we are not exactly a foreign investment magnet and on its own, our private sector is too weak and too small to drive the economy. At the same time, our oil is depleting. Therefore, I believe the inevitable solution is for the government, through its GLCs, to assume a proactive role both in the entrepreneurial development and the economic diversification effort. For the GLCs to assume this role efficiently, they need to have adequate resources and most importantly become proper business entities which mean risk-taking and being competitive. It is time for the government to let go its domineering role in the GLCs’s decision-makings and to also take the risk. Because if it doesn’t, then the only alternative for Brunei is for us to pray (very hard) for oil to never runs dry.

Salaam.

So You Think You Can be like Dubai?

"My Grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel"

Sheikh Rashid, the previous ruler of Dubai.

Well, a couple of years back (actually for all I know, we still think we can be like Dubai) there were talks about following Dubai's model to development. Nothing wrong with that - as long as we talk, the talk and walk, the walk. Anyway, I found this interesting Harvard paper 'Dubai Strategy: Past, Present and Future' which to me gives a good crash course on Dubai's development. Have a read, it's only about 9 pages long (minus the graphs) but really it tells the goods and the bads, which can be very interesting lessons.

Salaam.

P.S. Thank you all for your comments/views on my previous posts. I will get back to them once I've handed my chapter to my supervisor.

What Others Think of Us

I found this article from the Wall Street Journal dated some time in 2005 (click HERE). Honestly, I have a lump in my throat reading it but I guess it's reality and reality often bites. It may not be entirely true but to me it just shows how others think of us *sigh*.

So, WHAT shall we do to prove them wrong?

Salaam.

YES To Realistic Fuel Prices

Many people may disagree with me, but I think after so many years, finally someone is thinking with a right mind!

If you read my previous post on car fuel, you would know that the prices of car fuel in Brunei are perhaps the cheapest in the world. It is not without its cost. And the cost is obviously borned by the government in terms of subsidy (for 1 litre of diesel, the government is paying about 80cents and 60cents for a litre of Premium 97). That is A LOT!

Many of you would, by now are probably thinking, 'So What? Oil Price is soaring high now, surely the government's coffer is filling and why not share with the people?' . Well, first of all, oil and fuel are 2 different things. The car fuel's prices depends on the oil prices. When oil price goes up, the fuel price also goes up or the cost of producing fuel goes up. The price that we pay however is way below the cost of production. That means the government has to spend more on subsidy to ensure the fuel prices we pay in Brunei stay the same.

Secondly, yes it is true that the increase in oil price would definitely increase the government's revenue, but the money could be spent on other productive things which would have positive economic long-term impact on the country. Life is, after all, not all about cars! And, I believe it is also the time that the government increases its saving (and investment) for Brunei's future generation. in order to maintain our standard of living.

Thirdly, I honestly think that it is high time that the Bruneians live in a real world. By having realistic fuel prices will definitely awaken many people. The last previous posts, I wrote about 'rentier mentality'. As a result, many Bruneians take things for granted. Ever since Brunei started to export oil, Brunei has become a 'welfare state' up to the point that the people do not seem even know how to stand on their own feet! The government becomes the soul provider and this causes Brunei economy to stand still. Worse, people endlessly complain that the government is not doing enough. People want MORE, but never GIVE back!

Look at Norway, the third largest oil producer in the world. Do you know how much their fuel costs? The last I check, it was about US$7 per gallon. With the current US rate, that's about B$2.40 per litre! The government imposes higher tax, at times when oil price goes up, to reduce consumption. And their population of about 4.5 million use cheap hydro energy power! Well, where they have 'hydro power', I think Brunei should seriously be looking at solar energy as an alternative. And, now is a GOOD time for Brunei to seriously invest in some solar power.

OK. If you are still not convinced that a reduction in fuel subsidy (an increase in the fuel price) will do Brunei a greater good, I also believe that other positive impacts will also result.

First, I think the transportation industry may stand a good chance to benefit from such policy. People may start using buses and taxis. If you are still asking whether or not Bruneians are ready to take such dramatic actions (dramatic only in Brunei as it is perfectly normal for people to use public transportation abroad) well of course the answer would be NO. No one is ready to change their comfortable lifestyle. But an improved transportation industry will create more employments, improve services and most of all, can help reduce pollution.

Second, the price of cars will go down. The rule of demand and supply will apply. As demand for cars go down, price will follow.

Third, people will (hopefully) think twice of buying luxurious cars for the sake of showing-off and instead will spend the money on other important matters in life :)

Finally, I also think that it will help foster a stronger family relationship and communication. People, especially family will economise the use of cars. Gone will be foreign drivers. Parents will collect their own children. Husbands and wives will probably share the same car. As a result, communication improves and LOVE grows.....hehehe.

Anyway, these all are just my thoughts. I will probably change my mind when I'm back in Brunei haha. But I still strongly feel that more positive effects will come out of a policy change in the fuel subsidy. Proper research on the impacts obviously are called for. I do however hope it WILL be implemented.

Salaam.

P.S I am still sure that many of you are saying that 'Other prices have gone up too!'. Well, I say 'Welcome to the Real World.....'.

China vs the World: What chance have we got then?

Read an article from FT about China making it hard for other developing countries:

"Being a developing country used to be easy. You followed leaders - Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea - up a well-trodden ladder from agriculture through manufacturing to services. Starting with tilling the soil, you moved on to turning out T-shirts, then toys, then tractors, then television sets, and ended up trading Treasuries.
The rise of China has made that less straightforward. Not only is the first rung harder to reach, thanks to the hundreds of millions of rural migrants to Chinese cities still willing to work for low wages stitching garments, but also exports of goods from China's coastal industrial fringe are rapidly becoming more sophisticated, threatening those halfway or more up the ladder. While the shoemakers of Italy and the steelmakers of Pennsylvania may complain loudly about Chinese competition, those with more to worry about are middle-income Asian countries geographically and econ-omically close to the Middle Kingdom."

It makes me wonder, have we got a chance?
Well, according to Dani Rodrik, Yes we do. All we need is an Industrial Policy for the Twenty First Century, if we want to stand a chance in the global competition:

"The right model for industrial policy is not that of an autonamous government applying Pigovian taxes or subsidies, but of strategic collaboration between the private sector and the government with the aim of uncovering where the most significant obstacles to restructuing lie and what type of interventions are most likely to remove them. Correspondingly, the analysis of industrial policy needs to focus not on the policy outcomes (which are unknowable ex ante) but on getting the policy process right."

It's a good paper (Rodrik's). Please read.

Salaam.

Cartoon: Slate magazine